Very light deck today. Did you miss:
The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased again in April, fueled by positive contributions from all its components except for building permits and stock prices. In the six-month period ending April 2017, the leading economic index increased 2.4 percent (about a 4.9 percent annual rate), well above the growth of 0.7 percent (about a 1.5 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Also, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread. [Full notes in PDF]
No sign of recession:
US producers of consumer goods reported the weakest rise in new orders for a year in April, representing a relatively poor start to the second quarter compared to the strong growth seen earlier in the year. New orders growth has now slowed for three successive months, corresponding with a similar waning in the retail sales trend.
IHS Markit’s PMI New Orders Index for US consumer goods manufacturers fell to 53.4 in April, down from 55.7 in March and a recent peak of 59.5 in January. Although still above the no change level of 50, the drop in the index in recent months signals markedly weaker inflows of new orders for consumer goods, which are commonly orders placed by retailers and wholesalers. As such, the index hints at a tentative softening in growth of demand from households.
The consumer goods PMI is a key indicator to watch as it has historically exhibited a close correlation with the three-month trend in retail sales growth, generally tracking turning points ahead of the release of official data. (…)
This chart from Meridian Macro Research is not economy bullish, is it?
(…) Collectively, 21 nations are trying to curb output by almost 1.8 million barrels a day, with most of them using October’s production levels as their starting point. Last month, 10 of those countries met their targets, compared to nine in March, revised data show. But the big players matter most. Only ﬁve of nations producing more than a million barrels a day in April cut output as agreed, according to Bloomberg calculations. (…)
Russia, which accounts for half of the non-OPEC production cuts, has said it would gradually implement them and claimed to reach its target at the end of April. It didn’t do so for the full month. Non-OPEC compliance with crude oil cuts rose to 69 percent in April, according to Bloomberg estimates. It was at 66 percent when considering total liquids production, preliminary International Energy Agency data show. (…)
Source: Danske Bank, @joshdigga (via The Daily Shot)
SELL IN MAY?
From Nautilus Investment Research: