charts

Among developed countries, only the Australian, Canadian and Japanese equity markets are selling at multiples at or below their last 10-year range. All other DC equity markets are at their highs.

On the other hand, several emerging countries equity markets are attractively priced relative to their last 10-year range…

…but EC EPS are falling hard. European investors are praying for higher EPS while US investors are hoping EPS hang on.

More EMC earnings trends:

Recessions are the primary causes for equity bear markets…but recessions seldom just happen…(note that extreme valuation was present in 1987 contrary to what JPM believes).

There is also intra-year declines:

That said, one may think that record M&A activity is a sign that corporations are in good shape and feeling good about the future. Maybe, but that does not make better investors:

And the IPO market has become treacherous:

Even on their own shares, corporate officers and directors tend to buy high:

And if you think you should follow the big boys who have the truth, check this last chart. I will not bother to indicate the market’s high and low points, you can figure them out yourselves.

Just like Joe Public:

The only positive is that neither the hedgies nor the public are currently bullish . They just don’t know.

Lastly, from the horse’s mouth :

Careful out there! (Charts above from JPM, Meb Faber, RBC Capital, The Economist, BAML, Bespoke Investment)