SERVICES PMIs

S&P Global US Services PMI: Muted increase in business activity as optimism falters and employment falls solidly

The headline S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index recorded 50.7 in May, down from 51.0 in April. While remaining above the crucial 50.0 no-change mark, the index signaled only a marginal expansion that was among the weakest seen over the past two-and-a-half years.

The rise in business activity was supported by a renewed expansion in new business inflows midway through the second quarter. That said, sales growth was well below the long-run trend amid reports that budget constraints due to higher operating expenses had stunted growth. A stronger expansion in sales was also limited by a steeper reduction in international sales. The decline in foreign demand was the most pronounced since November 2022 and reflected economic and trade policy uncertainty.

Business confidence eased during May, reaching its lowest since October 2022, reflecting ongoing uncertainty regarding geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. At the same time, firms were hesitant to take on staff, with headcounts falling for the second time in three months. In fact, the rate of job shedding was the most marked since May 2020.

Evidence of ongoing capacity pressures was nonetheless prevalent during May as outstanding business rose for the fifteenth month in a row but at a less pronounced rate than in April.

Cost pressures reportedly stemmed from rising fuel, energy and supplier prices, and pushed overall input costs up to the fastest degree in 2026 so far. Higher labor costs and tariffs also added to upward pressure on company operating expenses.

In line with the trend for overall costs, selling prices increased to a greater extent than in April with inflation comfortably above its long-run average. Firms often sought to pass higher input costs onto clients, although a stronger increase was limited by reports of competitive pressures.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence

“While the US manufacturing economy is reporting a surge in demand as war-related supply and price worries drive precautionary stock building, it’s a different story in the service sector. Demand for services has been largely stalled over the past three months, losing the strength seen earlier in the year.

“The sluggish services economy is acting as drag on overall economic growth, which the PMI data signal to be running at a modest annualized pace of just above 1% so far in the second quarter.

“Hardest hit are the consumer-facing service sectors, where orders are now falling at the steepest pace since the pandemic in 2020, blamed on a combination of squeezed spending power from energy prices hikes and customers pushing back on higher prices being charged for services. However, business services are also seeing reduced order book growth compared to earlier in the year and financial services firms are coming under pressure from higher interest rates.

“Rising costs and cooling demand are meanwhile causing service companies to cut staff at the fastest rate seen since the early months of the pandemic.

“The increase in input cost inflation being signaled by the PMI points to a further rise in consumer price inflation in the coming months, but on the other hand the weakening of demand growth and downturn in the labor market being indicated could help allay concerns over any inflation spike becoming more entrenched.”

• The ISM services index increased by 0.9pt to 54.5 in May, somewhat above expectations. The composition of the report was mixed-to-strong, with increases in the new orders (+3.8pt to 57.3) and business activity (+1.8pt to 57.7) components, but a small decline in the employment component (-0.1pt to 47.9). (…) The press release highlighted the strength in the business activity component, but noted that “respondents reporting that new orders were higher than last month most frequently attributed this to seasonality.” It also added that “respondents commented frequently that their companies had instituted hiring freezes or were not backfilling vacated positions.” (GS)

• The latest ISM surveys suggest that both manufacturers and — more significantly — services companies are paying higher prices:

Canada: Service sector returns to marginal growth in May

Service sector activity in Canada rose slightly in May, although growth was marginal and limited by a drop in new business volumes.

Firms continued to report a challenging operating environment, characterised by general economic uncertainty, and this weighed on sales and business sentiment. Employment numbers were reduced marginally in response.

Latest data also showed a noticeable acceleration of input price inflation, with costs rising at their fastest rate for four years on the back of increased fuel and wage expenses. Service providers raised their own selling prices, with inflation the highest since July 2023.

 

Eurozone economic activity declines at quicker pace as inflation bites

Private sector business activity in the eurozone fell at the sharpest pace in 18 months in May, according to the latest S&P Global PMI® data, marking back-to-back months of contraction for the first time since the end of 2024. Weighing
on output levels was a further fall in demand for euro area goods and services, with export markets a particular drag as non-domestic new orders sank at the quickest rate in five months.

Signs of softening were also apparent in the eurozone labour market as job losses picked up.

As for pricing trends, input cost pressures ratcheted up further in May, remaining the sharpest seen since late-2022. For a third month in succession, the rate of output price inflation quickened.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

“With business activity in the eurozone falling for a second successive month in May, it is looking increasingly likely that the economy will slip into contraction in the second quarter. The PMI data are indicating a 0.2% quarterly GDP decline barring any significant change in June.

“Price pressures have meanwhile intensified to their most worrying for over three years, hinting at inflation potentially running close to 4% in the coming months.

“These price pressures will sit uncomfortably with the ECB, which will want to be seen as acting swiftly to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched. However, policymakers will also clearly be concerned that they could be hiking rates into a downturn, adding to recession risks.

“Hence, while one interest rate hike might be seen as an insurance policy, the case for further rate hikes will be harder to make if the economy continues to weaken, not least as this softening of demand will itself constrain pricing power and wage growth.”

 

China: Service sector activity growth accelerates further in May

The headline RatingDog China General Services Business Activity Index moved further above the 50.0 neutral mark to 54.4 in May, up from April’s 52.6, signalling the steepest increase in services activity for three months. The current sequence of expansion began in January 2023.

The faster increase in activity was accompanied by a further acceleration in the rate of growth in new business moving through the second quarter. The rate of expansion in demand for services accelerated for the fourth time in five months and was broadly in line with the long-run survey average.

Increased client demand, business innovation and expansion, new client acquisitions, improved market conditions and the development of new projects were all mentioned as sources of new work. Incoming new orders rose for the forty-first successive month, the second-longest period of continuous growth in the survey history.

Higher inflows of new export business contributed to the latest rise in total new work, following slight declines registered in March and April. The rate of expansion in new international business was softer than the latest increase in domestic demand, however.

Chinese service providers continued to report positive forecasts for business activity levels over the next 12 months. Expectations improved to the highest since February and were greater than the rolling 12-month average. The latest anecdotal evidence highlighted improving market conditions, a brighter economic outlook, business developments, increased client demand, new projects and new business lines as reasons for optimism.

The faster increase in new business in May was sufficient to generate another rise in outstanding orders at Chinese service sector companies in May. Work-in-hand grew for the seventh month running, and at the steepest rate since June 2024.

Higher levels of outstanding business placed pressure on operating capacity, and companies responded by boosting workforces. Employment in the service sector rose for the first time in four months, and to a greater degree than the previous increase in January.

Cost inflationary pressure in the Chinese services economy continued to build in May. Companies linked rising costs to oil and fuel prices, increased procurement, higher wages and other labour costs, and increased business activity leading to greater expenses. The rate of input price inflation rose to the highest since October 2024, although it was still below the long-run survey trend since 2005.

With cost burdens rising but remaining below the long-run survey trend, service providers held their charges broadly unchanged in May.

Donald Trump’s pledge to unleash a ‘golden age’ of US manufacturing sputters

US private spending on manufacturing construction fell in April to $15.2bn, down about 16 per cent since Trump’s second term began, while factory employment has fallen by 77,000 jobs over the same period, according to official data.

The decline in spending on building plants comes despite 84 companies announcing more than $900bn in investments to expand US manufacturing since Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, according to FT calculations.

The divergence underscores how Trump has struggled to usher in a domestic manufacturing boom — one of his flagship initiatives — despite tariffs and pressure on businesses to invest in American factories.

“Announcements are what people say they’re going to do, but dollars spent is what’s actually happening,” said Didi Caldwell, chief executive of Global Location Strategies, which helps companies identify factory sites.

“From where we’re standing, we are not seeing signs of a manufacturing renaissance in the US.” (…)

Recent increases in US manufacturing output appeared to be driven less by confidence than by fears over rising prices and domestic and geopolitical uncertainty, added Chris Williamson, S&P Global’s chief business economist. (…)

“It isn’t reflecting the true health of the manufacturing economy, and it’s more worrying than it is encouraging.” (…)

Trafigura warns oil at ‘inflection point’ as Iran war stokes bumper half-year profits

Commodities trader Trafigura has warned that global energy markets are at an “inflection point” that could send prices sharply higher as it reported near-record first-half profits boosted by the war in the Middle East. (…)

Trafigura warned markets against complacency, with chief economist Saad Rahim arguing that the world had largely run through its “buffers” of fuel inventories and now stood “at an inflection point”.

The war in the Middle East has caused a production loss of about 14mn barrels per day, compared with pre-conflict levels, according to Rahim, who added that the price response did not reflect the magnitude of the energy crisis.

“The factors that have contained prices so far — elevated inventories, floating cargoes, co-ordinated SPR [strategic petroleum reserve] releases, a shoulder season, and demand destruction across Asia and Africa — have bought the market time, but are not a solution,” Rahim wrote in the report.

He pointed to low US petrol inventories as a particular concern, noting that these inventories are being drawn down at a record pace. Even if a peace deal between the Trump administration and Tehran was reached soon, “restoring production and shipping flows to pre-conflict levels will, by most estimates, take months, not weeks”,

Rahim added. Trafigura chief executive Richard Holtum echoed Rahim’s view, saying “the pressures that have built up across commodity markets and global supply chains in recent months will take time to unwind”. (…)

Oil inventories have helped withstand the supply shock to date. They exist for occasions just such as this. But the US can’t draw down much more: (John Authers)

Ed Yardeni:

Yesterday, we raised the caution flag, suggesting a possible pullback over the next few weeks. We are concerned about warnings from Exxon and Chevron executives that global crude oil inventories are so low that the crude oil price could spike to $150 a barrel unless the war ends very soon.

We also expect the FOMC to pivot from an easing bias to a tightening bias at the committee’s next meeting later this month. We then expect the FOMC to raise the federal funds rate by 25bps in July. The financial markets are also expecting a rate hike, but late this year.

The SpaceX IPO should be a big hit because everyone knows Wall Street has bent the rules to ensure the stock price soars initially. However, that could cause lots of volatility if a price spike triggers a wave of profit-taking.

Two charts on explosions. There is a chicken and egg question here, isn’t there?

Stocks drive record share of American wealth

A record 33% of the total wealth of the U.S. household sector was in stocks at the end of 2025, according to Federal Reserve data.

• That beats the ~30% during the meme stock-and-SPAC mania of 2021.
• And tops the ~27% reached in Q1 2000, just as the internet boom peaked.

“The willingness of households to hold a rising portion of their total financial assets in equities [has] made retail investors overall an important driver of the bull market in equities in recent years,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a report late last month.

• Of course, that willingness hinges, in part, on how well stocks — and by extension, the Americans who own them — have done.
• Between the end of 2024 and 2025, the value of household portfolios soared 18%, or $10.31 trillion, to $67.77 trillion.
• That stockpile of stock market riches is likely at new records right now, after the S&P 500’s 10% rise so far this year.

In total, the country’s household equity assets are massive. But those holdings aren’t spread uniformly among all Americans.

• The richest 10% of American households owned about 87% of that total household stock market wealth, according to the Federal Reserve.

This uneven distribution helps explain some of the peculiar features of the current economic and political environment.

• For instance, the so-called K-shaped economy, in which GDP growth is increasingly reliant on spending by the wealthy, is likely driven in part by wealth effects of stock market gains for these folks.
• In other words, the rich seem to be feeling especially flush and are willing to spend.
• Meanwhile, 90% of the population hasn’t benefited from the booming market — even as relatively high inflation shrinks their real disposable income.

Also:

But also this:

Data: Goldman Sachs Investment Research; Finra; Note: Net margin debt is margin extended to customer securities accounts, after taking account of cash and unused remaining margin credit balances; Chart: Matt Phillips/Axios

And that:

BTW:

What the U.S. Has Accomplished in Iran The regime is much weaker, and time is on the side of the U.S. and its allies that want a more stable region.

By Condoleezza Rice in the WSJ:

The war against Iran has been a limited war, and its outcome is likely to be inconclusive. But it has achieved enough to produce a far better Middle East.

It drew America, Israel and the Arab states closer together through defense cooperation and intelligence sharing. In this regard, Israel has never been more secure. (…)

The war demonstrated that the Iranian regime’s leaders were physically vulnerable to U.S. military power and allied intelligence. It also showed that although Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz, that leverage is limited, as the U.S. blockade confronted Iran with the prospect of severe economic damage in return. (…)

It showed that China is no friend of the Arab world, as Beijing watched from the sidelines as Iran attacked the economic infrastructure of the region. (…)

Most important, along with Operation Midnight Hammer last June, Operation Epic Fury set back Iranian nuclear ambitions significantly. It will be a long time before Iran can build a viable nuclear weapon. (…)

In sum, Iran is far weaker today than it was in February. No amount of Iranian propaganda can mask this reality. America’s near-term goals should be to keep it in that weakened state, to strengthen the region’s political realignment, and to make certain that President Trump’s promise that Iran will never possess a nuclear weapon is fulfilled. (…)

Strategic patience is hard, and it isn’t always satisfying. But time is on the side of the U.S. and its allies. Reaching no deal is fine. Reaching a bad deal isn’t.

This is a new day in the Middle East, though it isn’t one without clouds. No American president has had a better chance to build a different and more stable region. It may just take a little more time.

Maybe you should also listen to this PBS video. Robert Kagan has a much different view of the US accomplishments in Iran:

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbqgQpQSwjY

Meanwhile:

Trump’s empire of debt This century the US has embarked on wars of choice and borrowed more to pay for them. That might not end well

(…) The conflict in Iran has been costing an estimated $2bn a day in short-term direct costs. The ratio of US public debt to GDP is set to breach its historic post-second world war high. And President Donald Trump has submitted to Congress a national defence budget request for 2027 of an astonishing $1.5tn, double the figure for 2020.

That number includes nothing for Trump’s latest war of choice. Suddenly the risk of overstretch looks very real — both to the US’s friends and to its foes. (…)

The US is still the world’s biggest economy and most potent military power. Its defence budget in 2025 was over $900bn, equivalent to 35 per cent of total global defence spending and more than three times the defence budget of China, the next most powerful military actor.

The American economy is notable for its high productivity and an impressive capacity for innovation, not least in AI. The question, then, is what could undermine the country’s otherwise winning formula for protracted hegemony.

The most plausible answer is costly wars and unstoppable surges in deficits and debt — a combination aggravated by Trump’s erratic foreign policymaking. (…)

Linda Bilmes of the Harvard Kennedy School notes that since the September 11 2001 attacks the funding pattern of US military conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and the wider region has been unprecedented.

“For the first time since the American Revolutionary War,” she wrote recently, “costs were paid for almost entirely by debt.” (…)

Against total current US government debt held by the public and federal agencies of about $36tn, this guns-and-butter tally amounts to fiscal incontinence on a very grand scale. (…)

The US Treasury’s interest bill has ballooned from 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2021 to more than 3 per cent today. The US deficit is currently running at nearly 6 per cent of GDP. There is no likelihood that this will come down significantly under Trump, despite promises by Treasury secretary Scott Bessent to halve it by the end of the president’s term.

Nor is the deficit likely to fall much under Trump’s successors because there is a structural deficit bias built into US politics. (…)

The lesson is clear, as Alan Auerbach, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, recently argued in the IMF’s F & D Magazine: “The key to fiscal consolidation is bipartisan agreement. Neither party can then blame the other for short-term outcomes voters may not like.”

But with increasingly polarised politics there is no prospect of a bipartisan attempt to solve the fiscal problem. (…)

Conventional wisdom holds that there is no realistic alternative to the dollar. The Eurozone, China and Japan do not have deep, liquid government bond markets capable of providing safe assets to the world on the requisite scale.

But foreign investors are now moving out of Treasuries because of the debt problem, threats to the independence of the US Federal Reserve, the weaponisation of the dollar through financial sanctions and the erosion of political checks and balances under Trump.

In other words the markets are finally buying into the overstretch story. For their part the leading credit rating agencies have downgraded the US: S&P as early as 2011, Fitch in 2023 and Moody’s in 2025.

Until relatively recently, the largesse of monetary authorities was crucial in funding big increases in borrowing by the US and other rich countries. (…)

But central banks have recently been unwinding their balance sheets, running down the dollar component of their reserves and looking for alternatives including gold, commodities and the more liquid currencies of smaller advanced countries.

Indeed, a report by the European Central Bank showed this week that gold had now replaced US Treasuries as the world’s top reserve asset. By the end of last year bullion accounted for 27 per cent of all global central bank reserve assets, up from 20 per cent a year before. Treasuries fell from 25 to 22 per cent over the same time.

This leaves a gap that has been substantially filled by hedge funds, mainly American owned but often counted as foreign investors because of their bases in tax havens such as the Cayman Islands.

Many own Treasuries as part of highly leveraged “relative value trades”, financed by short-term borrowing that has to be constantly rolled over.

William White, former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements, points out that this works well — until it does not. White argues that the purchase of government debt by non-bank institutions such as hedge funds depends in turn on their access to short-term financing such as the repo market.

He adds: “Should any disturbance interrupt that access, as in March 2020 [during the Covid-19 pandemic] or April 2025 [when Trump announced swingeing tariffs], an intense deleveraging spiral could easily follow.”

Recent shocks from hedge fund margin and collateral calls have made the Treasury market more fragile and a potential source of systemic risk.

Although the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield remains roughly where it was at the beginning of Trump’s second term, the odds are rising that his administration could find itself confronting debt market turmoil of the kind that toppled former UK prime minister Liz Truss after her unfunded tax-cutting “mini” Budget in 2022.

The Federal Reserve could then be obliged to buy Treasuries to prop up the market, perpetuating a morally hazardous boom and bust cycle in which investors assume the central bank will always come to the rescue when markets slump. (…)

White also worries about fiscal dominance — a phenomenon in which the central bank cannot raise interest rates to meet its inflation target because of the punishing servicing cost of high, short-term public debt. This in turn undermines price stability.

Another possible concern is financial repression, where the government forces banks and other financial institutions to buy its IOUs at below-market interest rates.

White foresees in the longer term a stagflationary world marked by the formation of two blocs, one dollar-based, the other renminbi-based with the Chinese currency being backed increasingly by gold.

A tangible step in this direction is the development of payment systems that do not rely on the dollar. Perhaps the most notable of these is the central bank digital currency platform mBridge, for which the chief technological input has been provided by the People’s Bank of China. (…)

Carstens, Knot and Claessens add: “While we do not predict an imminent crisis — the timing of such events is impossible to call — we do find that warning signs are multiplying and the window for preventive action is narrowing.”

The wisdom of the late Rudiger Dornbusch of MIT is relevant here. He famously remarked that “in economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and they happen faster than you thought they could”.

Barry Eichengreen, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, draws a telling parallel in his latest book between the currency of Trump’s America and that of Nero’s Rome.

The denarius served as an international currency across the Roman empire. Nero resorted to debasement, reducing the silver content of the denarius, in a desperate effort to finance his ambitious programme of canal building, the reconstruction of Rome following the great fire of 64AD and the building of his extravagant 300-room Domus Aurea palace — all this while prosecuting costly wars on multiple fronts.

It was a classic case of imperial overstretch and marked the beginning of the protracted erosion of Rome’s economic and military primacy.

Louis XIV, the warmongering, profligate Sun King of France, apologised on his deathbed for having “loved war too much . . . and spent too much”.

While the world well knows there is zero likelihood of any recantation from the unapologetic 47th president, such an admission would make a fitting envoi for Trump.

But perhaps Trump’s real legacy will be the debt he, like his predecessors, has accumulated — and how it has undermined American power.

In 2016, just FYI:

“You’ve taken business bankruptcies six times.” –Hillary Clinton

“On occasion – four times – we used certain laws that are there.” –Donald Trump

PolitiFact uncovered two more bankruptcies filed after 1992, totaling six. Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts filed for bankruptcy again in 2004, after accruing about $1.8 billion in debt. Trump Entertainment Resorts also declared bankruptcy in 2009, after being hit hard during the 2008 recession.

Why the discrepancy? Perhaps this will give us an idea: Trump told Washington Post reporters that he counted the first three bankruptcies as just one. (WaPo)

Ueda Says BOJ Needs to Keep Raising Rates to Contain Inflation

The Bank of Japan needs to keep raising interest rates in response to developments in the economy and inflation, Governor Kazuo Ueda said in his final scheduled speaking event ahead of a closely watched policy meeting.

Should the economy evolve in line with the BOJ’s forecasts, which see the Mideast turmoil calming and inflation reaching its 2% target, “I think the Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate at an appropriate pace,” Ueda said Wednesday in a speech at a forum in Tokyo.

“Based on the data and anecdotal information available thus far, the upside risks to prices appear to be greater overall and are likely to emerge sooner,” he said.

Ueda’s remarks indicate there’s a good chance of a rate hike this month, though they weren’t as explicit as comments he made telegraphing the previous two increases. (…)

The governor was speaking ahead of a June 15-16 board meeting, with traders assigning a roughly 85% chance as of Wednesday afternoon of a quarter-point hike that would lift the benchmark to the highest since 1995. The board held policy settings steady in April with a 6-3 vote, the biggest split under Ueda’s watch.

Two members who backed a hold at that gathering have since spoken in favor of a near-term hike without specifying a preferred timing, citing upside price risks stemming from the war in Iran. (…)

Even if the outlook is unclear but policymakers judge that upside risks to inflation outweigh downside risks to growth, “it will be necessary to thoroughly discuss the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate,” Ueda said. (…)

The weak yen is also nudging the BOJ toward a rate hike this month. High oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict have not only weighed on the currency, but have also upended the US Federal Reserve’s policy path, which now points to a rate hike by year-end. That’s adding pressure on the BOJ to close the gap between the countries’ benchmark rates, which would help support the yen. (…)

The yen touched 160 on Wednesday, the weakest level since April 30, when Japanese authorities conducted currency intervention for the first time since 2024. It was trading around 159.83 after Ueda’s remarks. (…)

Japanese companies are already feeling the pain from the geopolitical conflict. Producer prices rose in April at the fastest pace since 2014 compared with the previous month. Food and beverage companies seeking to pass on higher input costs will likely announce price increases on more than 10,000 items this year for a fifth consecutive year, according to Teikoku Databank.

Earlier Wednesday, Japan’s cabinet endorsed a ¥3.1 trillion ($19.4 billion) package to fund measures to cushion households with subsidies from inflation tied to Middle East turbulence, putting fiscal policy back in the spotlight for bond investors.

While investors are focusing on Takaichi’s efforts to control the nation’s finances, another market focus is the pace at which the BOJ is reducing its bond purchases. In addition to setting rates this month, authorities will discuss whether to continue paring those purchases by ¥200 billion each quarter next fiscal year.

Japan imports all its oil at much higher prices and pays for it in dollars raised selling a weakening yen. The weaker the yen, the higher the oil bill.

To keep the yen from falling too much, too quickly, the BOJ hikes interest rates. This increases the cost of servicing Japan’s huge debt load, worsening its deficit which worries financial markets, further pressuring interest rates up and the yen down simultaneously. A tough balancing act for the BOJ trying to keep the confidence of financial markets.

Meanwhile, rising rates and a weak yen rattle investors having borrowed in yen to lend in other currencies with higher interest rates, the carry trade.

This puts upward pressure on Treasury yields as Japan investors sell US bonds to get yens and/or Japanese bonds.

If everybody worries about Japan, they also worry about the USA.

So, what’s happening in Japan impacts the US.

What’s happening in Iran impacts Japan big time, the yen, and, eventually, US interest rates and the economy.

A little excursion…

• Emerging Markets Lead Rate Hikes as Iran War Fuels Inflation

Emerging-market central banks are leading a wave of interest-rate hikes as the war in Iran reignites inflation, moving faster than most developed-world peers, which remain on hold to assess the economic fallout.

Since fighting began in late February, at least 10 emerging and frontier-market central banks have raised rates, with Indonesia, Rwanda, South Africa and Sri Lanka tightening policy in the past two weeks. Policymakers in the US, Euro area, Japan and Canada have held fire, with Norway and Australia among the few developed economies to raise borrowing costs.

The hikes reflect “policymakers’ desire to keep hard-won credibility intact,” said Lauren van Biljon, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. Emerging-market central banks are drawing on lessons from the last global tightening cycle, when many moved ahead of their developed-market counterparts to tackle the post-Covid inflation shock and were more cautious about cutting rates as price pressures eased, she said. (…)

EM central banks are also tightening policy to support their currencies and stem capital outflows, with more expected to follow. The Reserve Bank of India has pledged to curtail speculation on its currency and is said to be weighing a possible rate hike this week, while the central bank of the Philippines has indicated it may consider a large, off-cycle increase before its next scheduled meeting on June 18.

Turkey is also seen hiking the policy rate on June 11 after “heightened uncertainty” regarding a court decision to remove a main opposition party leader from office, according to JPMorgan analysts.

Meanwhile, the pressure to tighten is also building on developed markets. Euro-area inflation topped 3% for the first time in more than 2 1/2 years, cementing expectations for an interest-rate hike when the European Central Bank meets next week.

FYI:

Foreign investors now own a record $20 trillion, or ~19% of all US equities. This percentage has nearly TRIPLED since 2000.

Passive mutual funds and ETFs hold $17 trillion, an all-time high, accounting for ~15% of all US equity ownership. Since the 2008 Financial Crisis, passive fund ownership has TRIPLED.

Over the same period, the weight of active mutual funds has more than HALVED to $11 trillion, now at ~10% of total, the lowest since the early 1990s. (@KobeissiLetter)

OECD Warns of Severe Global Slowdown If Middle East Conflict Is Prolonged Duration matters a lot for the economic and social consequences

The global economy is set for a significant slowdown this year as higher energy costs weaken consumer spending and business investment, but it could become much more severe if the conflict in the Middle East drags on into 2027, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said.

In a quarterly report on the global outlook, the Paris-based research body said worldwide output is likely to grow by 2.8% in 2026 if energy production in the Persian Gulf starts to recover later this month and transport through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal. That would mark a sharp slowdown from the 3.4% expansion recorded last year. (…)

The OECD said that should the disruption to energy production and shipping stretch well into next year, global growth could slide to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.

If the latter outcome came to pass, it would be the weakest year of growth this century, with the exceptions of 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic struck, and 2009, when the global financial crisis hit. (…)

In this “protracted” scenario, parts of Asia would be among the hardest hit. Much of the energy that usually transits through the Strait of Hormuz is heading for Asian ports. Japan and South Korea, among others, have large reserves of oil that have ensured the economic impact of the Strait’s closure has so far been limited.

That would change if the closure was long-lasting. But the impact wouldn’t be confined to those countries most reliant on the Gulf for their energy supplies.

“Many economies in Asia are likely to be hit heavily, reflecting their relatively high reliance on energy inputs from the Gulf economies, but higher inflation, shortages, tighter financial conditions and weaker confidence are also likely to weaken growth significantly in Europe and North America,” the OECD said. (…)

The OECD said the slowdown could be severe enough to push a number of economies into recession.

Should the conflict prove to be of shorter duration, the OECD continues to expect the U.S. economy to grow by 2% this year, outpacing the eurozone at 0.8% and Japan at 0.6%. It nudged up its growth forecast for China to 4.5% from 4.4% in March.

However, the OECD warned that a protracted disruption to supplies from the Gulf that led to a further rise in energy costs would likely weaken investment in artificial intelligence, which has been a key driver of U.S. economic growth.

It noted that energy accounts for 60% of the costs associated with data centers, while the manufacture of semiconductors requires helium—and a third of the world’s supply of that gas comes from the Gulf. In addition, higher energy costs in Asia would hit production of essential equipment.

“The production of…hardware that underpins AI systems is highly electricity-intensive, reflecting the energy demands of advanced lithography, clean-room operations, and cooling systems,” the OECD said.

As long as the duration of the conflict proves to be relatively short, the OECD said most central banks don’t need to raise their key interest rates. It expects inflation in the Group of 20 leading economies to rise to 4% this year from 3.4% in 2025, but fall back to 3.1% next year.

However, should the conflict prove long-lasting, it expects G-20 inflation to be 4.4% this year and 4.7% in 2027. In response, central banks would likely raise their key interest rates by between half and three-quarters of a percentage point.

The OECD said those central banks that are reducing their portfolios of bonds purchased under quantitative easing programs may have to suspend that process, and may even have to resume QE to calm bond markets.

US Job Openings Jump to Highest Since 2024 as Layoffs Fall

US job openings jumped in April to the highest level in almost two years and layoffs fell, adding to signs the labor market remained resilient even as businesses navigated rising energy costs sparked by the Iran war.

Available positions rose to 7.62 million from 6.89 million in March, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Tuesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 6.87 million openings.

One sector — professional and business services — surged to a three-year high, accounting for almost the entirety of the increase. The vast majority of the rise in openings was also from businesses with less than 10 employees. Both posted their biggest monthly advances on record.

The figures suggest labor demand is steadying this year after near-zero job growth in 2025. While vacancies still remain well below the levels seen in the pandemic reopening period, the stabilization could further undermine the case for interest-rate cuts as Federal Reserve officials increasingly discuss the possibility of rate hikes.

Even so, surveys suggest businesses and workers remain anxious about the labor market and economic conditions. The share of consumers who said jobs were plentiful fell in May to the lowest since 2021, according to The Conference Board.

The overall number of hires fell to 5.12 million in a broad-based decline, after surging in March to the highest level in more than two years. Layoffs also moderated, to 1.69 million.

The so-called quits rate, which measures the percentage of people voluntarily leaving their jobs each month, fell to 1.9%, matching the lowest since 2020.

The report also showed the number of vacancies per unemployed worker, a ratio Fed officials watch closely as a proxy for the balance between labor demand and supply, was little changed at 1 to 1. At its peak in 2022, the ratio was 2 to 1. (…)

Ed Yardeni says that “The rise is consistent with the upward trend we have been tracking in INDEED’s weekly job postings”.

But Ed omitted to update his chart to the latest Indeed data point (May 22) :

Goldman Sachs computes an average of JOLTS, Indeed and LinkUp data:

Trump Begins Rebuilding His Tariff Wall Citing Forced Labor

The US is proposing new tariffs of at least 10% on imports from 60 trading partners in President Donald Trump’s biggest move to rebuild his protectionist wall since his earlier levies were struck down by the Supreme Court.

Following an investigation into how trade partners handle goods allegedly produced by forced labor, a 10% tariff rate would apply to imports from Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Taiwan and the UK, among other places, according to a statement late Tuesday from the Office of the US Trade Representative.

Products from other major economies, including China, India, Japan, South Korea, Brazil and Switzerland, would be subject to a 12.5% levy.

USTR said it was imposing the lower rate on goods from economies that impose prohibitions on forced labor imports or have committed to doing so, while those “that have failed to impose and effectively enforce” them received a higher rate. (…)

The move is a major step in Trump’s push to reinstate the tariffs he imposed during his first year in office before they were deemed unconstitutional. The recommended duties are a result of probes launched under a separate legal authority known as Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

A separate raft of 301 investigations includes a review of US trading partners’ excess manufacturing capacity, the findings of which may also be released soon. Trade analysts are speculating whether any future duties from that probe would be stackable on top of those proposed under the forced labor investigation.

“Trade partners will be understandably upset by this determination,” said Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore. “You’ve opened a door now for a whole lot of new tariff and non-tariff adjustments,” she added. (…)

The levies won’t go into effect immediately and are subject to a public comment and review period before implementation, which could result in changes before any duties are codified. Written comments are due to be submitted by July 6, and a Section 301 panel is expected to convene public hearings beginning on July 7, according to the notice.

The USTR investigated whether the economies involved had failed to impose a forced labor import prohibition or effectively enforce such a prohibition. “None of the 60 economies whose acts, policies, and practices are the subject of these investigations effectively enforce a forced labor import prohibition,” it found.

“This creates a dynamic where American workers are forced to compete globally on an unlevel playing field,” US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement. “We will no longer tolerate this disparity.”

Citing the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2005, the USTR flagged 34 goods in particular countries that are made with inputs produced with forced labor. Those included cotton used for garments, critical minerals for solar products, fish used for fish oil and fish meal, and palm fruit used palm oil.

The move will test the tolerance of the largest US economic partners, who have largely restrained from retaliating against Trump’s tariffs, opting instead to negotiate deals to lower import taxes and ensure market access. (…)

There are also several proposed exceptions to the tariff regime.

Apparel and textile imports from some countries would be able to enter the US at a reduced tariff rate — with those quotas set according to the volume of US exports of textiles to those nations.

Other products are exempt from the tariffs entirely, including beef, tomatoes, bananas, coffee, orange juice and other food items. Metals, which are already covered by other levies, are excluded, as are certain fuels and chemicals. (…)

Greer has said the goal was to complete a series of trade investigations to allow Trump to quickly enact new tariffs after the outgoing measures expire.

America’s Data Center Build-Out Is Falling Way Behind Schedule Google, which is raising a fresh $80 billion, has a strategy for getting around the biggest bottleneck

(…) Supply-chain backlogs, permitting fights and availability of power supplies are among the issues that have caused the construction of data centers to fall behind targeted timelines, with the gap growing wider in recent months: A JPMorgan analysis last month found that more than 60% of data-center capacity planned for completion in 2027 isn’t yet under construction, and another 7% is delayed. (…)

In its analysis, JPMorgan noted that delays in obtaining gas turbines and electrical transformers have contributed to the creep-up in data-center delays. (…)

AI Saves Time But Most Companies Waste the Gain, Study Shows

Employees across industries continue to adopt AI tools at a rapid rate, yet the technology’s impact on productivity and efficiency is uneven and muddled, according to a new study.

Some 74% of white-collar workers with no managerial duties count themselves as regular users of artificial intelligence, a 23 percentage point increase from a year earlier, according to Boston Consulting Group Inc.’s latest AI at Work report. But many enterprises struggle to convert AI-driven efficiency gains into measurable value, BCG said.

More than 40% of the regular AI users among the white-collar workers not involved in management reported saving a full work day or more per week from using such tools. Still, leaders and organizations are yet to learn how to derive value from the saved time, BCG said.

“Everyone is talking about AI replacing work, but it is in fact really about rethinking the human value-add inside,” said BCG’s Vinciane Beauchene, one of the report’s authors. “This is the role of leaders.” (…)

Nearly half the respondents said they spend more time managing and directing AI than doing the work itself. And while about two-thirds of regular AI users said the technology has improved job satisfaction, about 41% said it had increased cognitive load. That’s creating what the authors called a “joy paradox,” where AI makes work better and harder at the same time. (…)

For its study, BCG surveyed nearly 12,000 workers across industries in 14 countries and regions, examining AI adoption, workforce expectations, leadership and organizational transformation.

The survey highlights the emergence of AI agents, with 30% of respondents saying such tools are now integrated into workflows — more than double the number from a year earlier. Over 60% said they believe agents could do at least half their job within three years.

Non-managers in India, Brazil, and South Africa reported regular AI usage above the global average, while those in the US, France and Italy lagged behind, BCG said.

• Microsoft Launches AI That Works Like an Executive Assistant

Microsoft Corp. launched new artificial intelligence software designed to function like an always-active executive assistant, the latest evolution of its workplace AI efforts.

While AI bots like ChatGPT or Microsoft’s Copilot are only visible to the user, the new tool, dubbed Scout, will appear on internal email and calendar systems as if it were just another helpful employee, the software maker said on Tuesday.

This means Scout will able to handle a wider range of tasks autonomously, Charles Lamanna, who leads product development for much of Microsoft’s business applications and workplace AI teams, said in an interview.

For example, the assistant could autonomously ask a meeting organizer to reschedule if there is a timing conflict, he said. Salespeople could ask questions of their boss’s Scout assistant.

“It has its own identity and therefore is shareable,” Lamanna said. (…)

Anthropic PBC and OpenAI have each promoted AI assistants this year that can take actions by accessing users’ desktops. Scout’s uniqueness partly rests on the fact that it has been integrated with other Microsoft products.

Microsoft has spent years trying to package cutting-edge AI technologies in a way that’s palatable to cautious corporations. Scout is built on OpenClaw, a platform that turns the models behind ChatGPT and Claude into always-on agents. OpenClaw went viral earlier this year owing to its ability to handle complex tasks by taking control of a user’s computer but also spurred worries about potential cybersecurity vulnerabilities. (Internally, Microsoft dubbed its initiative Project Lobster.)

Lamanna didn’t disclose pricing for Scout, which will initially require a subscription to Microsoft’s GitHub Copilot coding assistant. Customers will likely be charged based on how much they use the software, rather than a flat subscription fee, he said. In the long run, as the cost of accessing AI models continues to tumble, Microsoft would like to include more AI products in subscription plans, Lamanna said.

Microsoft is working to encourage more customers to pay additional fees for its AI tools, including through a new software bundle dubbed “E7.” For now, only a small percentage of subscribers are also paying for Copilot, the flagship AI assistant.