A Crude Awakening on Inflation Is Hitting Markets Hope that the Iran conflict will end any time soon is being abandoned.
(…) Brent crude — the world’s most followed benchmark — topped $120 per barrel on Wednesday and closed higher than at any time during the conflict.
That drove a series of classic alarm bells across global markets, taking out closely watched landmarks. Bond yields surged, with 10-year gilts topping 5% for the first time since 2008; 30-year Treasury yields hitting 5% for the first time this year; and the Japanese yen over 160 to the dollar. These all suggest alarm about inflation. The war is at a tipping point where markets accept that it will seriously damage the global economy:
During the war’s first month, crude and the S&P 500 had a perfectly inverse relationship. During the second just ended, they rose together. The S&P hit a low when Brent logged its previous high on March 30. Since then, oil has reclaimed its peak, while the S&P rallied by 13%. (…)
Measures of volatility show that the amount people are paying to hedge future price moves in both equities and bonds are back where they were before the attack on Iran.
Polymarket now puts odds of only 52% on the Strait reopening by the end of June — implying we’re not even half way through the blockage. A protracted stalemate that creates shortages now looms as the likeliest outcome.
Two months ago, when the war was supposed to end in a matter of days, that would have been an unrealistically doom-laden scenario implying a bear market for stocks. Now it’s the base case. And stocks are up.
How to explain this? As Points of Return has covered, earnings expectations are behaving like a force of nature, and that is more important than anything else when pricing the stock market. (…)
Any discussion of cutting rates this year is moot. Futures markets no longer expect it, while the rate-sensitive two-year yield has surged with rate expectations. (…) On the war’s eve, three cuts were penciled in for 2026.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, due to make its own announcement shortly after you receive this, is in a tougher spot as Europe is more directly exposed to the conflict. In February, it was expected to leave rates unchanged all year. Now, traders are expecting three hikes, starting in June.
Trump wants rate cuts, but it’s hard to feel sorry. The impasse in the Strait has thwarted any chance of that, while his administration’s brutish attempts to interfere with the central bank appear to have robbed it of the chance to replace Powell with someone more amenable. The committee is now setting out its stall to behave like the Bank of England, where decisions come down to narrow majorities and the governor is sometimes in the minority. That’s not how the Fed has typically operated, but it’s a model that works elsewhere, and the bullying tactics are chiefly responsible.
Underscoring the point, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attacked Powell for staying on:
It’s highly unusual for someone who says he’s an institutionalist and cares about norms at the Fed. This is a violation of all Federal Reserve norms.
It’s hard to take this seriously. Weaponizing the prosecution system to to get rid of Fed governors you don’t like is a much greater violation of such norms. And the Fed’s building, currently being renovated so controversially, bears the name of Marriner Eccles — a highly respected chairman who stayed on as a governor once he left the chair, just as Powell is planning.
(…) Since the US and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, the soaring price of oil and gas has forced governments across the globe to rethink their energy security policies. Earlier this month, the IEA said the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already “thoroughly upended” the global outlook for oil consumption, as demand shows signs of permanently shifting to other sources of energy. (…)
There are now “so many governments [that] are pushing renewables plans into overdrive: to restore national security, economic stability, competitiveness, policy autonomy and basic sovereignty,” he said. (…)
Except in the USA.
- Eurozone inflation rises to 3% in April amid Middle East energy shock Economy’s 0.1% growth in the first quarter was slower than expected
- BoC holds rate at 2.25%, but warns of energy and trade risks
- On April 29, the nowcast of US real GDP growth in Q12026 is 1.2%:
Big Tech Strikes Gold With AI, but at a Steep Cost While Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon ride AI to strong earnings, some investors are still worried about spending
Four of the biggest names in technology—Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Amazon.com —on Wednesday reported earnings showing that sales are growing thanks to the proliferation of AI tools. That progress, however, comes at a steep cost. Capital expenditures on the infrastructure needed to satisfy demand are climbing steadily higher.
Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon last year combined for $410 billion in capital expenditures and are expected to spend more than $670 billion on capex in 2026, according to a Wall Street Journal tally. Morgan Stanley estimates that tech companies will spend $2.9 trillion on chips, servers and other pieces of data-center infrastructure between 2025 and 2028.
The costs of those inputs, which keep the AI engine humming, keep rising. Prices for memory chips (…) have skyrocketed as surging demand for AI tools has caused a shortage. There are demand-driven capacity crunches in everything from fiber-optic cabling to electric power to water for cooling chip factories to undeveloped land for data centers. (…)
Wednesday’s results highlighted a bifurcation in Big Tech between the fortunes of companies that have invested heavily at several levels of the AI stack, including design of cutting-edge microchips, cloud services and models, and those that are more reliant on partners for hardware or services that they or their customers need.
Alphabet posted the strongest quarterly results of the four, reporting an 81% increase in net income compared with a year earlier. Its Google Cloud unit, which rents out access to its in-house AI chips, known as Tensor Processing Units, posted $20 billion in first-quarter revenue, a 63% year-over-year increase [vs +60% in the prior quarter]. Chief Executive Sundar Pichai said that AI is “lighting up every part of the business.”
The company’s remaining performance obligations, or backlog of customer commitments, almost quintupled year over year to $460 billion [and up 92% from $240B last quarter], largely on the strength of cloud sales. [GOOG expects to record about half of the backlog as revenue over the next 2 years. That would be $30B per quarter on average]
In a major shift, Pichai announced that Google would begin direct sales of TPUs to a select group of external customers, the company’s first significant step to commercialize its chips outside its own cloud business. Alphabet raised its capex projection for 2026 by $5 billion [+3%] to a new range of $180 billion to $190 billion, a result of its recent acquisition of the data center energy provider Intersect.
Alphabet shares rose 7% in aftermarket trading.
Amazon, which has been rapidly expanding its in-house custom silicon business, saw income at its Amazon Web Services data-center segment surge 28% year over year, to $37.6 billion. (…)
The company’s shares rose 2.7% in after-hours trading, despite reporting that it had spent $59.3 billion more on property and equipment, mostly related to its AI investments, than in the year-earlier quarter. That left the $2.8 trillion company with just $1.2 billion in annual free cash flow, much lower than was typical in the years leading up to the AI boom.
[Amazon said its contract pipeline had reached $364bn at the end of March and would expand further due to a recent $100bn computing contract with Anthropic.(FT)]
Meta shares fell about 7% after the market close despite big gains in ad revenue it attributed to AI-driven improvements in ad targeting and tracking. The company far exceeded analysts’ expectations for both quarterly sales and net income.
The social-media company told investors that it expected capital expenditures of between $125 billion and $145 billion in 2026, up [~8%] from a previous estimate of $115 billion to $135 billion. The increased spending projection is due to “expectations for higher component pricing” and “additional data center costs,” the company said.
Meanwhile, Microsoft beat Wall Street’s expectations for sales, earnings per share and operating margins, but shares still declined after the bell and were later little changed. The company’s Intelligent Cloud unit, which includes its AI infrastructure and Azure cloud computing businesses, reported $13.2 billion in operating income, lower than the $14.1 billion predicted by analysts surveyed by FactSet.
On an earnings call with investors, Microsoft Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood said the company expects to increase capital spending to $190 billion for all of 2026, with $25 billion of that reflecting higher-component pricing. Hood said despite rising costs, she was optimistic these investments would pay off once the company gets more infrastructure in place.
“I feel quite good about our ability to work through the physical sort of limitations, [broad and growing customer demand continues to exceed supply]” Hood said. (…)
Microsoft said Copilot now has 20 million paid users, up 33% since January. Growth in the company’s Azure cloud business reached 40%, in line with expectations, and its capital spending was about $31.9 billion, more than 8% lower than projections.
[MSFT forecast 13% to 15% revenue growth in the June quarter vs +18% in Q1].
[Hood also said: “Even with these additional investments, and continued efforts to bring GPU, CPU and storage capacity online faster, we expect to remain constrained at least through 2026.” Hood added that cloud growth would accelerate in the second half of the year as more data centres come online.” (From the FT which also supplied the revenue growth chart above)
“The moral of the story is, cloud businesses are accelerating, and you’re seeing particular strength behind vertical integration,” said John Belton, portfolio manager of the $1.4 billion Gabelli Growth Fund, which has about 30% of its holdings in Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft.
“That means,” he said, “if you’re a cloud services company, and you have a full suite of computing services, from the chip down to the model, down to the application, you’re doing much better, versus if you’re just building data centers and running more third-party models.”
- Samsung Chip Profit Surges on AI Demand, Pricing Power in Focus Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor unit beat expectations with a 48-fold profit jump, driven by strong margins from AI-related memory demand. Heavy spending by hyperscalers such as Meta Platforms and Alphabet is supporting high-bandwidth memory growth, with analysts pointing to sustained pricing strength amid tight supply. Counterpoint Research expects DRAM contract prices to rise 60% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 after a 42% increase in March. (MKT News)
LIQUIDITY “ISSUES”
It’s not just credit…
Private equity backers raise new conflict concerns over sweetheart deals
Big private equity backers have raised concerns that some of their peers may be waving through controversial deals where buyout firms sell companies to themselves, adding a fresh twist to worries about conflicts of interest inherent in the transactions. (…)
Some large private capital firms invest in traditional buyout funds and also have secondaries businesses that back continuation vehicles — the dedicated entities set up by buyout firms to purchase assets from their older funds.
The head of investor relations at a large international buyout group said that certain US pension plans were now objecting to procedures whereby just a small committee of a fund’s backers tend to vote through the sale of one or more portfolio companies to a continuation vehicle.
There have long been worries about whether private equity firms themselves could be conflicted when a continuation vehicle buys an asset from one of the manager’s older funds. But investors in the selling funds are now questioning whether their peers have potential conflicts in deciding whether assets should be put into continuation vehicles.
The rise of continuation vehicles, which accounted for roughly a fifth of all private equity exits last year, and the growing pool of money dedicated to supporting such transactions have underlined concerns about occasions where private equity fund investors could find themselves on both sides of a transaction.
Some institutional investors are demanding that a wider group of fund backers be required to approve selling assets to continuation vehicles, the private equity executive said. (…)
The US pension plan told the FT that “limited partner advisory committees are becoming increasingly conflicted”, referring to the industry term for backers of buyout funds. They added that when committee members’ employers also had strategies dedicated to backing continuation vehicles, “it’s hard to know which interest they’re serving”.
Private equity groups have turned to continuation vehicles in recent years, either to avoid selling companies at lower valuations in a difficult economic environment or to stay exposed to their best-performing assets.
Last year there were more than $100bn of sales into continuation vehicles globally, up from about $70bn the year before. This compares with $7bn or less in 2015, according to Jefferies. (…)
Investors in a fund selling assets to a continuation vehicle are typically invited to cash out their stakes or reinvest in the new vehicle, usually after the buyout firm has completed a bidding process with third parties to set the price.
The US pension plan executive suggested that bidders could offer to pay higher management or performance fees in a new fund “in exchange for a cheaper price” on the continuation vehicle. (…)
Why Powell Is Right to Stay on at the Fed His presence raises the stakes should Trump renew his attacks on the central bank’s independence
If these were normal times, Jerome Powell would have just finished his last-ever Fed meeting. He would relinquish his chairmanship next month to Kevin Warsh, as well as his separate seat as governor.
But these are not normal times, and the country is better served with Powell as a governor than as a private citizen.
President Trump has waged a year-long campaign to bend the Fed, which is supposed to be independent, to his will. That culminated in his Justice Department launching a criminal investigation of Powell on the barely credible allegation of misleading Congress about cost overruns on Fed-building renovations. (…)
On Wednesday, Powell said he would stay on as governor after his chairmanship ends May 15, “for a period of time to be determined.” His term as Fed governor ends in early 2028. (…)
How does his presence affect whether Trump’s prosecutors continue to pursue him? (…)
But prosecutors enjoy extraordinary discretion and nothing stops Pirro or some other prosecutor from reopening that investigation or launching a new one.
“In general, if you’ve decided you’re going to drop a case, you wouldn’t reopen it unless you came across some substantial additional evidence that caused you to change your mind,” said Randall Eliason, a former federal prosecutor specializing in public corruption and a retired law professor. But “this Justice Department has shown little concern about following standard rules, procedures and protocols. If I’m Powell, I might be concerned this is just a temporary thing to grease the way for Warsh’s confirmation and then they’ll bring it right back.” (…)
And Trump has gone to great lengths to exact retribution on his perceived adversaries long after they’ve left office. (…)
If Powell stays, the Justice Department would not be pursuing a private citizen but a sitting central banker, raising the stakes. Powell could make a potent political and legal case that this was a naked attempt to control monetary policy. The Supreme Court has already signaled reluctance to let Trump fire Cook over concerns about Fed independence. (…)
Warsh has an interest in defending the Fed’s systems and governance against political attack. Nor should he welcome the prospect that Trump, or some future Democratic president, could similarly manufacture a pretext to remove Warsh because they clashed over monetary policy.
There is, of course, the larger question of what Powell’s presence means for interest rates. If he leaves, Trump can fill his seat with his own appointee, providing one more vote to lower rates or potentially take more drastic steps like removing reserve bank presidents. Trump’s critics want Powell to stay precisely to prevent that. (…)