Month: November 2022

BLACK FRIDAY SALE AT EDGE AND ODDS

I receive so many Black Friday discount offers from content providers, I feel bad not doing the same for my readers. So here it is:

• All new or past donators will now have free access to Edge and Odds and be allowed to double their donation, free of charge, yearly!
• Readers who subscribe to the Daily Edge will receive it daily in their mailbox, free of charge!
• That’s nearly 250 deliveries per year! There surely is something useful once in a while.
• And readers who recommend Edge and Odds to a friend will see their subscription extended indefinitely.
• That could be 2500 Daily Edges, maybe even more…who knows? It’s been 14 years already.

I know, not that big a deal, but that’s all I can do

What’s a big deal to me is readers supporting the blog with donations. Lately, I have been very bad at taking the time to thank them personally.

Please forgive me Constantin Z., Richard B., Robert K., Joseph T., Joshua F., Jasec, Donald M., David M., Massimo B., Lawrence M., Stephen C.. I hope I forgot nobody. You are truly helping this blog survive during this not so transitory inflation period.

U.S. FLASH PMI

Demand weakness weighs further on private sector business activity in November

November saw a solid contraction in business activity across the US private sector, according to latest ‘flash’ PMI™ data from S&P Global. Lower output was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors amid increasingly steep downturns in demand. The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand.

The headline Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 46.3 in November, down from 48.2 at the start of the fourth quarter. The rate of contraction signalled was the sharpest since August and among the quickest since 2009.

Demand conditions worsened as the fourth quarter progressed, with new orders across the private sector falling in November at the fastest pace since the initial pandemic wave in May 2020. With the exception of the early stages of the pandemic, the decrease in total new sales was the sharpest since 2009. Manufacturers and service providers alike recorded steeper declines in new business, with many firms stating that the impact of inflation and interest rates had led to greater hesitancy and postponements by customers in placing orders.

The pace of decline in new export orders also gathered momentum, with manufacturing weakness being met by a dwindling service sector performance in external markets.

On a more positive note, inflationary pressures eased further in November. Private sector input cost inflation softened for the sixth month running, increasing at the slowest rate since December 2020. Although still rising at a pace well above the series average, firms noted that decreases in the price of some key components including lumber, steel and plastic, as well as reduced freight costs, led to a softer overall uptick in expenses.

Reflecting the slower growth of input costs, firms raised their selling prices at the slowest rate for just over two years. The pace of charge inflation was notably softer than seen earlier in the year. Some firms stated that concessions and discounts were made to entice customers to place orders amid the weak demand environment.

Meanwhile, lower new order inflows led to a strong reduction in levels of outstanding business at US firms. The fall in backlogs of work was the sharpest in two-and-a-half years, with manufacturers reporting the steeper decline in work-in-hand. A more consistent supplier performance and weak demand allowed firms to work through their incomplete business, according to panellists.

In line with subdued demand, firms increased their workforce numbers only marginally in November. Hiring reportedly continued as firms tried to fill open vacancies for skilled workers, but the non-replacement of leavers (in an effort to cut costs) weighed on employment growth.

Despite challenging demand conditions, firms reported a pick-up in output expectations for the coming 12 months in November. Manufacturers and service providers both signalled greater confidence in the outlook. Improvements in supply chain stability and hopes of greater client demand following new product launches were key factors spurring greater optimism. Growth expectations nonetheless remained well below levels seen this time last year.

The S&P Global Flash US Services Business Activity Index posted 46.1 in November, down from 47.8 in October. Excluding the initial pandemic phase in the first half of 2020, the rate of decline was the second-fastest on record. Panellists often stated that the impact of inflation and interest rates on customer disposable income had dented demand conditions.

In line with weak demand, new business fell at a solid pace in November. The second successive monthly decrease in new orders was the sharpest seen since May 2020.

On the price front, input costs rose at a slower pace midway through the fourth quarter. The increase in cost burdens was the softest in almost two years, as firms noted lower prices for some key inputs.

At the same time, the rate of inflation for prices charged for services eased for the seventh successive month and was the softest since October 2020. Firms often noted that slower price hikes were linked to efforts to remain competitive and drive new sales.

A solid reduction in backlogs of work and capacity pressure at service providers led to only a marginal uptick in employment. Where hiring was successful, firms linked this to the filling of long-held vacancies.

Nonetheless, firms remained upbeat in their expectations for activity over the next year. Confidence picked up from October and was reportedly driven by hopes of further easing in price pressures and investment in service lines.

At 47.6, down from 50.4 in October, the S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI signalled a renewed decline in operating conditions at manufacturers in November. The deterioration in the health of the sector was solid and the first since June 2020.

Contributing to the decrease in the headline figure was a renewed fall in output and a sharper decline in new orders. Demand conditions were stymied by inflation and economic uncertainty, according to panellists, with new sales falling at the quickest rate since May 2020. Alongside challenging domestic demand conditions, new export orders contracted at a sharper pace.

Nonetheless, there were positive developments in November, as firms signalled the first improvement in supplier performance since October 2019. Faster lead times were, however, often linked to reduced demand for inputs. Moreover, purchasing activity fell at the sharpest pace since May 2020 as firms reportedly worked through excess inventories.

In line with shorter delivery times for inputs, firms recorded a slower rise in cost burdens. Average input prices increased at the softest rate for two years amid reports of lower costs for key inputs including lumber and plastics.

Although historically elevated, factory output price inflation also eased in November. Firms sought to drive sales and entice customers, with selling prices rising at the slowest pace since January 2021.

Difficulties in finding skilled labor remained apparent in November, however, which – combined with concerns over weakening demand – caused the rate of employment growth to slow to only a marginal pace. Backlogs of work fell sharply in part due to firms receiving inputs in a more timely manner, but new orders also declined at an increased rate.

Finally, business confidence in the outlook for output over the coming year improved from October’s recent low. Although still below the historic series average, optimism stemmed from shorter lead times for inputs and hopes of stronger client demand.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “Business conditions across the US worsened in November, according to the preliminary PMI survey findings, with output and demand falling at increased rates, consistent with the economy contracting at an annualised rate of 1%. (…)”

• US resilience may mean the Fed has to talk tougher

ING sees resilience in nominal capex orders:

The good news is that the durable goods report is solid and points to business capex holding up well in the fourth quarter. We always ignore the headline number, which rose 1% month-on-month versus the 0.4% consensus expectation as it gets buffeted around by Boeing aircraft orders, which were decent at 122 planes versus 96 in September.

The Fed tends to look more at the non-defense capital goods orders ex aircraft as a cleaner measure of what is happening in the corporate sector. It rose 0.7% MoM versus expectations of 0.0%. Admittedly the September number was revised a little lower to -0.8% from -0.4% and, as the chart below shows, it is trending towards slower growth, but it is not suggesting companies are looking to retrench imminently.

US core durable goods orders and business investment

The problem with ING’s chart is that it compares a series in constant dollars (GDP- equipment investment, orange) with one in nominal dollars (capex). When deflating capex with the implied deflator in the GDP-equipment investment series (red), we see that real capex growth was about flat in Q2 and likely turned negative in September and October.

Add November’s flash PMI findings of

• “increasingly steep downturns in demand”
• “the decrease in total new sales was the sharpest since 2009”
• “new export orders contracted at a sharper pace”

and the resiliency looks much more fragile, particularly when reading about only “marginal increases” in both manufacturing and service employment.

Speaking of employment, ING continued:

The not-so-good story was the rise in initial jobless claims to 240k from 223k (consensus 225k) while continuing claims rose from 1503k to 1551k, suggesting that there is evidence of a cooling in the US labour market. (…) The consensus for next Friday’s payrolls number is for a 200k jobs gain and we doubt expectations will shift much for that, but the rising lay-off story is something we will be closely following and could hint of early signs that the jobs numbers in early 2023 being softer.

This chart shows unemployment claims with the scale set to reflect levels between 2014 and 2019. The horizontal line is the average for that period. The low in claims was in March. Based on continuing claims, 245k workers having lost their job in May have yet to find another one.

This “data-dependent” Fed next meets December 13-14. They will get a new CPI report on December 13. Will they then have enough data to conclude that demand is waning rapidly, that employment seems to be slowing fast and that inflation looks set to pause for a while?

The WSJ Nick Timiraos sums it up well (my emphasis):

Fed Minutes Show Most Officials Favored Slowing Rate Rises Soon Policy makers have signaled plans to dial back the pace of interest-rate increases, while warning rates could rise to somewhat higher-than-anticipated levels next year

Their discussion at the meeting, described in minutes of the gathering released Wednesday, suggests they could downshift to a rate rise of 0.5 percentage point, or 50 basis points, at their meeting next month.

“A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would soon be appropriate,” the minutes said.

(…) the discussion revealed some were more anxious about the possibility of overdoing the increases, while others worried they might not be making enough progress to warrant a downshift.

Some from the first camp said the risks were rising that the Fed’s rate increases might ultimately “exceed what was required to bring inflation back” to their 2% goal. A few also warned that continuing to raise rates in 0.75-point increments “increased the risk of instability or dislocations in the financial system,” the minutes said.

A small minority believed it might be better to wait to slow increases until rates were “more clearly in restrictive territory and there were more concrete signs that inflation pressures were receding significantly,” the minutes said. (…)

The minutes said that officials thought that high inflation and the strong labor market would call for raising the benchmark federal-funds rate next year to a level “somewhat higher than they had previously expected.” (…)

The central bank’s staff saw a U.S. recession next year “as almost as likely” as their baseline projection of weak growth, the minutes showed. That represented a downgrade of the economic outlook due to the tightening of financial conditions that had occurred this fall. (…)

This summer and fall, several Fed officials suggested they would want to see evidence that inflation is declining toward their 2% goal before slowing or stopping rate increases. But at a press conference on Nov. 2, Mr. Powell suggested a sequence of slower inflation readings had never been “the appropriate test” for slowing or halting rate rises. (…)

Recall that at his last FOMC presser, Mr. Powell sounded more hawkish than the official communique, even saying that “I control the messaging, that’s my job”. I have not seen any commentator pick up on this rather bizarre statement.

From the minutes:

In discussing potential policy actions at upcoming meetings, participants reaffirmed their strong commitment to returning inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent objective, and they continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate in order to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance of policy to bring inflation down over time.

Many participants commented that there was significant uncertainty about the ultimate level of the federal funds rate needed to achieve the Committee’s goals and that their assessment of that level would depend, in part, on incoming data.

Even so, various participants noted that, with inflation showing little sign thus far of abating, and with supply and demand imbalances in the economy persisting, their assessment of the ultimate level of the federal funds rate that would be necessary to achieve the Committee’s goals was somewhat higher than they had previously expected.

(…) A number of participants observed that, as monetary policy approached a stance that was sufficiently restrictive to achieve the Committee’s goals, it would become appropriate to slow the pace of increase in the target range for the federal funds rate. In addition, a substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate. A slower pace in these circumstances would better allow the Committee to assess progress toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability. The uncertain lags and magnitudes associated with the effects of monetary policy actions on economic activity and inflation were among the reasons cited regarding why such an assessment was important.

A few participants commented that slowing the pace of increase could reduce the risk of instability in the financial system. A few other participants noted that, before slowing the pace of policy rate increases, it could be advantageous to wait until the stance of policy was more clearly in restrictive territory and there were more concrete signs that inflation pressures were receding significantly.

It seems safe to conclude that:

• A pause is not contemplated just yet.
• Mr. Powell’s insistence in his presser that rates would rise more than previously expected did not reflect the view of a majority of participants. “Various participants” (rarely used in minutes) see the need for terminal rates “somewhat higher than they had previously expected”.
• Mr. Powell is clearly among these “various participants”. He made it clear in the presser that the policy needed to get clearly in restrictive territory, a view shared only by “a few participants”.
• This FOMC is divided and Powell is the boss controlling the message.

This will likely get worse in December.

For their part, equity investors need to decide if a Fed pivot (slowing, not yet pausing) is more significant than potentially declining profits.

Personally, the odds currently favor the fixed income side.

Retailers’ Holiday Discounts Are Steeper This Year, CFOs Say Markdowns help clear excess stock and attract Black Friday shoppers, but they crimp profit margins

(…) Among retailers in the S&P 500 that reported financial results through Nov. 22, the average margin on earnings before interest and taxes declined to 10.7% in the third quarter from 13.2% in the year-earlier period, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. (…)

U.S. Poised to Grant Chevron License to Pump Oil in Venezuela The move would come just as Western sanctions on Russia threaten to tighten global supplies.

China’s Record Covid Surge Hits Recovery Hopes The prospect that Beijing’s zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19 persists well into next year means the world can’t rely on China to be a locomotive of growth as the U.S. and European economies slow.

• Postal Savings Bank of China to provide $39 bln of property sector financing Postal Savings Bank of China has agreed to provide a total of 280 billion yuan ($39.17 billion) in financing to property companies including Vanke, Longfor and Country Garden

Wait, wait! Here’s the FT: Chinese lenders to pump $162bn of credit into property developers

BLACK FRIDAY SALE AT EDGE AND ODDS

I receive so many Black Friday discount offers from content providers, I feel bad not doing the same for my readers. So here it is:

All new or past donators will now have free access to Edge and Odds and be allowed to double their donation, free of charge, yearly!

Readers who subscribe to the Daily Edge will receive it daily in their mailbox, free of charge!

That’s nearly 250 deliveries per year! There surely is something useful once in a while.

And readers who recommend Edge and Odds to a friend will see their subscription extended indefinitely.

That could be 2500 Daily Edges, maybe even more…who knows? It’s been 14 years already.

I know, not that big a deal, but that’s all I can do

What’s a big deal to me is readers supporting the blog with donations. Lately, I have been very bad at taking the time to thank them personally.

Please forgive me Constantin Z., Richard B., Robert K., Joseph T., Joshua F., Jasec, Donald M., David M., Massimo B., Lawrence M., Stephen C.. I hope I forgot nobody. You are truly helping this blog survive during this not so transitory inflation period.

Happy Thanksgiving all!

FLASH PMIs

Eurozone economic contraction eases in November, price pressures cool

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index rose from 47.3 in October to 47.8 in November, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading based on approximately 85% of usual survey responses. The PMI has now registered below the neutral 50.0 level, indicating falling business activity levels, for five consecutive months, albeit with the latest data signalling a moderation in the rate of contraction. Nevertheless, the PMI data for the fourth quarter so far put the eurozone economy on course for its steepest quarterly contraction since late-2012, excluding pandemic lockdown months. Manufacturing continued to lead the downturn, with factory output dropping for a sixth successive month. Although the rate of production decline eased, the latest fall was still the second-strongest recorded over the past decade if the height of the pandemic is excluded. Service sector output also fell, down for a fourth consecutive month, contracting at an unchanged rate compared to October. However, such a rate of decline had not been witnessed outside of pandemic lockdowns since June 2013. Within the euro area, Germany again reported the steepest downturn, the composite PMI at 46.4 to register a fifth monthly drop in output in as many months. Although the latest decline was the weakest since August, it was still the third largest since 2009 barring pandemic lockdowns. While Germany’s manufacturing and service sectors both suffered similarly steep rates of contraction, the former saw a marked cooling in the rate of decline. Output meanwhile fell in France, the composite PMI registering 48.8 to signal the first drop in business activity since February 2021. Service sector output contracted for the first time since March 2021 and manufacturing output fell for a sixth straight month, albeit the rate of decline moderating to the slowest since August. Output fell in the rest of the eurozone for a third month in a row, albeit with November’s decline being the smallest seen over this sequence. A marginal return to growth in the service sector contrasted with a steepening fall in factory production, which fell at a rate not seen since March 2013 barring pandemic lockdown months. By sector, any growth was confined to industrial and software services, media and pharmaceuticals & biotech firms. The steepest downturn was again seen in chemical & plastics, with notably steep declines also recorded for basic resources (linked in part to high energy costs). Especially marked falls also continued to be seen for real estate, transportation, tourism & recreation and autos. New orders for goods and services meanwhile fell for a fifth month running to signal a further marked drop in demand. Although the rate of loss eased from October, the drop in orders was the second-largest seen in the past two years. While new orders fell at a reduced rate in manufacturing, the rate of loss intensified slightly in services. The drop in new orders meant companies were again reliant on existing backlogs of work to help maintain business activity levels, causing backlogs of orders to fall for a fifth consecutive month, dropping at the sharpest rate for two years. A particularly sharp decline was again recorded in manufacturing, but backlogs of work also showed a renewed decline in services. The deteriorating order book situation led to a growing reluctance to add to workforce numbers, resulting in the smallest monthly increase in employment since March 2021. The hiring slowdown was led by the service sector, though factory payroll growth also remained subdued. By country, jobs growth picked up in Germany but deteriorated in France. One positive consequence of weaker demand was a marked reduction in supply chain delays as input buying fell sharply again. Average supplier delivery times faced by eurozone factories lengthened to the least extent since August 2020. Factories in Germany even reported the first improvement in supplier performance since July 2020. In addition to facilitating higher production in some cases, the improving supply situation – combined with weakened demand – took further pressure off prices. Average input prices paid by manufacturers rose at a markedly reduced rate as a result, showing the smallest monthly gain since December 2020. Service sector input cost inflation also moderated, down to the second-lowest in the past nine months. Measured across both sectors, input cost inflation cooled to the lowest since September 2021, albeit remaining elevated by historical standards thanks principally to high energy costs. Average prices charged for goods and services also rose at a reduced rate, albeit likewise continuing to climb sharply, the rate of inflation cooling for a second month in a row to register the smallest increase since August. Rates of selling price inflation eased in both manufacturing and services, most notably to a 20-month low in the former. Finally, business expectations for the year ahead remained subdued, improving slightly for a second successive month but still running at the third-lowest since the early pandemic lockdowns. Confidence continued to be stymied by concerns over the growth outlook, the rising cost of living and the energy crisis, in turn linked to the Ukraine war, as well as rising interest rates. Pessimism about the year ahead nevertheless eased considerably in manufacturing compared to the historically gloomy levels seen in September and October, linked to hopes of fewer energy-led constraints and improving component supply chains, while optimism improved slightly in the service sector to suggest that the overall degree of concern about the outlook has peaked for now. By country, a less gloomy picture in Germany contrasted with a less positive, yet still optimistic, view of the year ahead in France. Greater optimism was meanwhile seen in the rest of the region. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “A further fall in business activity in November adds to the chances of the eurozone economy slipping into recession. So far, the data for the fourth quarter are consistent with GDP contracting at a quarterly rate of just over 0.2%. (…)” Sharpest fall in new orders since January 2021 as cost of living pressures continue to hit the UK economy

(…) Companies reporting a downturn in business activity typically cited cutbacks to non-essential client spending in response to rising costs and weaker economic conditions. Overall volumes of new work decreased for the fourth month in a row and the rate of decline accelerated to its fastest since January 2021. Survey respondents often commented on subdued business and consumer confidence, alongside softer customer demand due to cost of living pressures and rising interest rates.

Lower volumes of new business from abroad contributed to the deterioration in order books during November, especially in the manufacturing sector. Latest data pointed to the steepest fall in export sales among manufacturing companies since May 2020. (…)

Strong input cost pressures continued in November and the overall rate of inflation eased only slight since October. This was mostly driven by surging energy bills and higher wages, alongside rising import prices due to exchange rate depreciation against the US dollar. Service sector businesses signalled a much steeper rate of input cost inflation than manufacturing firms. Prices charged by UK private sector companies meanwhile increased at the slowest pace since August 2021, which a number of survey respondents attributed to weaker customer demand and greater competitive pressures. (…)

  

• BoF Retail Survey Reveals That Sales Weaken Further

The Bank of France retail survey fell by 3.7% in October showing a significant decline in sales volumes in the month. The decline interrupts a two-month string of sales volumes rising as volumes rose by 0.2% in August and by 2.5% in September.

Across the seven product categories for the month, all of them decline in addition to a decline in all industrial goods sales volume and then overall volume. October was a bad month for French consumers. Food purchases fell by 3.3% in October following declines in three of the four most recent months. Industrial goods sales volumes declined 3.9%, which is only their first to decline in the last three months but the third decline in the last five months.

Among other selected nonfood categories, textile sales volumes fell by 6.1% in October, footwear sales volumes fell by 8.2%, furniture volumes fell by 2.9%, household appliances saw sales volumes fall by 2.5%, electronics volumes fell by 7%, and new auto purchases fell by 9%. The declines across the various categories are relatively large declines for a single month. (…)

German inflation to stay in double digits despite gas price brake, Bundesbank says

Canada Economy Quickens, Upending Forecasts for Tepid Growth

Statistics Canada released advance estimates on Tuesday for retail that showed sales rising 1.5% in October. Separately, the agency said wholesale activity rose 1.3% during the month, while factory sales were up 2%. The agency provided few details, however, and it’s not clear how much rising prices were driving the gains. (…)

The 1.5% increase in retail sales would be the largest since May and followed a small drop in retail sales of 0.5% in September. A big part of the rebound last month may reflect rising gasoline prices, though the statistics agency didn’t provide details of what drove the October number. Retail sales likely benefited from a 9.2% rise in prices for gasoline. (…)

Retail sales were down 1% in the third quarter, or 1.4% in volume terms, Statistics Canada said.

Scholz Pledges to End Germany’s Over-Reliance on China, Russia

Xiaomi’s Revenue Dives 10% After Smartphone Demand Tanks Sales of mobile devices fell 11%, leading declines across business divisions encompassing smart electronics and internet services.

• Apple iPhone factory workers clash with police in China

China backs 2 stronger property companies with $16.8bn credit line

@Sino_Market

China Property Developers Outlook 2023 (Fitch)

(…) We expect no material improvement in the operating environment, as homebuyers’ confidence remains fragile amid weak economic prospects and uncertainty surrounding delivery of pre-sold properties. Fitch expects a 0%-5% year-on-year decline in annual contracted sales, underscoring our deteriorating sector outlook.

We believe national home prices will be under moderate pressure across most cities. However, transactions tilting towards higher-tier cities – which typically have higher prices – will alter the primary property sales mix, resulting in broadly stable primary-property average selling price data.

We expect the government to take further steps to stabilise the sector. However, policies aimed at supporting home demand will remain measured and selective, as the government avoids policies that could lead to home-price reflation. The direction of the ‘”zero-Covid” policy and timely delivery of pre-sold homes are also key factors to homebuyers’ sentiment. Effective implementation of recently announced measures to support private developers is also important for liquidity.

China Buys Fewer Chip-Making Machines as US Restrictions Start

China’s purchases of machines to make computer chips fell 27% last month from a year earlier as the US imposed new, sweeping sanctions to try and derail the country’s chip ambitions. (…)

Purchases from major exporters such as Japan and the US were down in October, according to Bloomberg analysis of official trade data released Monday. Shipments from the Netherlands doubled in the month. That is where ASML Holding NV, the leading producer of chip-making equipment, is headquartered. (…)

The new US restrictions only apply to US firms at the moment, and while President Joe Biden’s administration is negotiating with Japan and the Netherlands to try and convince them to limit what can be sold to Chinese firms, Washington doesn’t expect they will agree soon. (…)

It may also be hard for China to try and ramp up purchases of these goods from non-US suppliers anytime soon. Tokyo Electron Ltd said recently it’s operating at near-full capacity, with months-long wait times for equipment delivery.

Credit Suisse Warns of $1.6 Billion Loss After Clients Pull Money The customer outflows come at a precarious time for the bank, which weeks ago launched a sweeping overhaul of its operations.

Switzerland’s No. 2 bank by assets said outflows were around 6% of its total $1.47 trillion assets, or around $88.3 billion, between Sept. 30 and Nov. 11. Customers in its wealth-management arm—its main business serving the world’s rich—removed $66.7 billion from the bank. Credit Suisse in late October said a social-media frenzy around its health was causing large outflows.

The fast pace of withdrawals meant the bank’s liquidity fell below some local-level requirements, the bank said. It said it maintained its required group-level liquidity and funding ratios at all times. Banks must keep enough liquid assets on hand to meet expected cash outflows in a 30-day period, under post-financial-crisis-era rules. (…)

In all, more than $100 billion has left the bank since June, according to Credit Suisse’s filings. It said client balances have stabilized in its Swiss bank and that the outflows have slowed in wealth management, but haven’t reversed. (…)

JPM clients responding to whether they will increase or decrease equity exposure. The question is will they do as they say, especially if FOMO kicks in? (The Market Ear)

JPM

Sequoia Capital Regrets Backing FTX But Defends Vetting Process

(…) Sequoia told its investors that when it initially backed FTX in July 2021, it had reviewed unaudited statements, the person said. In response to a question about audited versus unaudited statements, one of the partners suggested the firm might push its startups to use Big Four accounting firms in the future.