The HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI), a monthly indicator derived from the PMI™ surveys, indicated stronger output growth across global emerging markets
in June. The EMI posted 52.3, up from 50.6 in May, signalling the sharpest rate of expansion since March 2013. That said, it remained below its long-run average
of 53.8.The pick-up in output growth was reflected in both manufacturing and services, most notably the latter where activity growth hit a 15-month high. Three of the four largest emerging markets contributed to the faster overall rise in output in June. China posted the sharpest increase in output for 15 months, while India saw the steepest expansion since February 2013. Russian private sector output stabilised, having fallen at the strongest rate in five years in May. Brazil, however, registered a further flat trend in activity.
Stronger output growth reflected the fastest increase in new orders since March 2013. Meanwhile, the level of outstanding business was unchanged, following a five-month sequence of decline.
Inflationary pressures remained subdued in June, despite input price inflation reaching a four-month high.Prices charged for finished goods and services continued to rise only fractionally.
The HSBC Emerging Markets Future Output Index tracks firms‟ expectations for activity in 12 months‟ time. The index rose for the first time since February in June, indicating strengthening sentiment across emerging markets. The improved overall outlook reflected the service sector, while manufacturers were the least optimistic since September 2012.
Three of the four largest emerging economies registered stronger output expectations in June. India registered the brightest outlook for the third successive month, ahead of Brazil and China respectively. Russian business expectations were the third-weakest in the 27-month series history.
