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SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM DROPS TO A NEW TWO YEAR LOW
The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 0.3 points from February, falling to 92.6. Statistically, no change. Four of the 10 Index components posted a gain, six posted small declines, the biggest gain was in Expected Business Conditions, a 4 point improvement to a still very negative number.
For a broader perspective, the Index has turned decidedly “south” over the last 15 months falling from a reading of 100 in December 2014 to 92.8. A “chartist” looking at the data historically might conclude that the Index has clearly hit a top and is flashing a recession signal. The April survey will decide whether or not the alarm should be rung. This month’s change was not statistically significant, just not in a positive direction. (…)
The political climate continued to be the second most frequently cited reason (after weak sales and a poor economy) for why the current period is a bad time to expand. Seasonally unadjusted, 51 percent characterized the current period as a bad time to expand. Only 8 percent thought the time was right for expansion.
BTW: Where to now?
Goldman Sachs