Virus Update
- Globally, confirmed cases of the virus passed 2.17 million and the total number of deaths topped 146,000.
- Reported Deaths in U.S. Reach Record 4,591 in 24 Hours, nearly double the prior record, as governors extended their lockdown orders.
- Wuhan’s Death Toll Surges 50% After Data Review The number of deaths in Wuhan attributed to Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, increased by 1,290 to 3,869, according to a notice from Wuhan officials published Friday by China’s official Xinhua News Agency. The figure was adjusted to include people who had died at home and to correct earlier misreporting from overworked hospitals, Wuhan officials said in a separate interview published by Xinhua. The adjustment in the Wuhan figure pushed the death toll in China to 4,632. Authorities also increased the number of confirmed cases in Wuhan by 325 to 50,333 after the review, the notice said.
- Russia Covid-19 Growth Speeds Up Confirmed coronavirus infection cases rose by 4,069, in the past day to 32,007, Interfax reported, citing the Russian coronavirus information center. The country had reported a 14% increase in total cases on Thursday.
- Spain’s New Coronavirus Cases Rise by Most in More Than a Week There were 5,252 new infections in the 24 hours through Friday, the most since April 9, taking the total to 188,068. Despite the latest rise, the figures are still roughly half the number of new cases and deaths around the turn of the month, suggesting that the outbreak is losing intensity. There were more than 9,000 new cases on March 31 and 950 new deaths on April 2.
- The coronavirus reproduction factor in Germany is estimated at 0.7, according to the daily situation report published by the country’s public-health authority. That means Germany is at a point where each person with the virus infects an average of 0.7 other people, down from 0.9 on Wednesday.
- Germany’s confirmed coronavirus cases increased at a faster rate for the second day in a row and the number of fatalities climbed above 4,000 as the nation readies for some restrictions on public life to be lifted from next week. The country had 2,945 new infections over 24 hours, taking the total to 137,698, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The pace of increase in new cases had declined steadily for six days until Thursday. Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday announced tentative steps to begin returning the country to normal. Some smaller shops will be allowed to start serving customers again next week, and schools will gradually reopen in early May.
- Virus Seen Killing 300,000 in Africa The coronavirus pandemic could kill 300,000 people in Africa this year, even with assertive government measures to limit social interactions, according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. Overcrowded slums with no access to water coupled with fragile health-care systems make the continent especially vulnerable to the disease, the Addis Ababa-based body said in a report on Friday.
- The Trump administration issued guidelines that could allow states and employers to abandon most social distancing practices within a month, sparking a rally in stocks.
- ‘Call your own shots’: Trump leaves reopening states up to their governors
- Ford Tests Buzzing Wristbands To Keep Workers Six Feet Apart
- Denmark Removes More Curbs After sending young children back to school, Denmark is set to remove another layer of its lockdown as hairdressers, judges and several other corners of the labor force are told they can resume work next week.
- Virus Vaccine May Be Ready for Mass Production By Autumn, Oxford Professor Says “The best-case scenario is that by the autumn of 2020, we have an efficacy result from phase 3 and the ability to manufacture large amounts of the vaccine, but these best-case time frames are highly ambitious and subject to change,†Gilbert was quoted as saying.
- Roche Aims to Start Selling Antibody Test in Early May Roche Holding AG developed an antibody test for Covid-19 that it says it plans to start selling early next month, adding another of the diagnostic tools experts think will be needed to lift social-distancing measures put in place around the globe. The test will probe blood samples for antibodies that show whether a person has been infected by the new coronavirus, the Basel, Switzerland-based company said in a statement. Monthly production could reach the high double-digit millions by June.
PANDENOMICS
China Records First Ever Contraction in Quarterly GDP on Coronavirus China’s economy shrank 6.8% in the first three months of 2020 compared with a year earlier, the first such contraction since Beijing began reporting quarterly gross domestic product in 1992.
(…) Compared with the previous quarter, China’s GDP contracted by 9.8%. (…) Retail sales in March were off 16% from a year earlier, much worse than the 8.0% expected. Industrial production for the month was down 1.1% from a year earlier, better than the expected 7.5%. For the quarter, fixed-asset investment was off 16%, in line with expectations, property investment was down 7.7% and housing sales off 23%. (…)
One economic-research firm, Trivium China, estimates business activity now exceeds 80% of capacity, up from roughly 70% a month ago. (…)
Industrial production shrank 8.4%YoY in Q1 but only 1.1%YoY in March. Retail sales fell 15.8%YoY in March after falling 19.0%YoY in Jan-Feb.
U.S.-China Economic Breakup More Likely, U.S. Businesses Say The coronavirus pandemic is making the “decoupling†of the U.S. and Chinese economies a more realistic prospect, American companies in China say.
(…) The results of the March survey by the two organizations, published Friday, found more than a quarter of the companies plan to start sourcing some or all of their materials from different locations after the pandemic—though in some cases different regions of China rather than outside the country. Only 16% said they intended to shift some or all of their production outside China.
- Another 5.2 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, bringing the total in a month of coronavirus-related shutdowns to 22 million.
- New York extended its “on pause†policy at least until May 15, while the U.K. extended a national lockdown for at least three more weeks.
- Boeing to Restart Jetliner Production Boeing didn’t detail what production rates it will target in a restart that comes against the backdrop of a collapse in air travel that has forced airlines to ground two-thirds of the global fleet and prompted cancellations from its own order book. Rival Airbus SE last week said it would cut production rates by a third.
- Volvo Cars to Restart Production in Sweden The carmaker had closed its European facilities on March 26 but will reopen them on Monday, according to its chief executive officer Hakan Samuelsson. Next week will also see the company’s main Swedish factory in Gothenburg running at full capacity, with health checks installed at main entrances and work spaces adjusted for social distancing.
- Stimulus to Add Nearly $1.8 Trillion to U.S. Budget Deficit Over Decade, CBO Says Cares Act is projected to boost federal spending by more than $1.3 trillion in that period
- US crude prices hit another 18-year low Front-month West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery loses as much as 9%
- Argentina makes an offer to restructure $83bn in debt Country asks investors to take a 62% haircut on coupons to stave off ninth default
- Argentina’s Economy Minister Calls for Three-Year Grace Period on Foreign-Debt Payments
- Mnuchin defends opposition to emerging markets liquidity plan Trump administration resists issuance of reserve assets to troubled nations through IMF
- French consumer giants LVMH and L’Oreal SA said a recovery could start soon after the coronavirus caused sales to plunge in the first quarter, as revenue in China is already bouncing back. Shares of both companies rose Friday after they gave signs of recovery in that market, the biggest for luxury goods. Sales in Louis Vuitton stores on the mainland are up about 50% in the past three weeks over the same period a year ago, according to a person familiar with the matter.
- Macron warns of EU unravelling without financial solidarity Member states have ‘no choice’ but to set up joint virus recovery fund, French president tells FT
- The US default cycle has officially started (GS)
EARNINGS WATCH
We got 40 Q1 reports in, a –7.1% surprise factor and a –30.9% decline in aggregate profits. Trailing EPS are now $158.91 and forward EPS $147.33.
RULE OF 20 STRATEGY RAISING CASH
An opening at or above 2845 will trigger a 40% cash level as the R20 P/E rises above 20.0 while the R20 Fair Value, currently at 2844 is falling, which doubles the cash allocation from valuation.
Brazil’s President Fires Health Minister Nation’s vast health care system is left without a leader as infectious disease experts warn of a worsening pandemic
President Jair Bolsonaro, who has insisted the risk from the new coronavirus is low and called for Brazil to stay open for business, fired his health minister on Thursday after the two clashed repeatedly over how to handle the pandemic. (…)
Mr. Mandetta had called for people to isolate inside their homes as Mr. Bolsonaro waded into crowds of supporters and posted videos of people pleading with him to let them get back to work. The unorthodox right-wing leader has been facing growing opposition for his call for business to reopen. Polls showed Mr. Mandetta had become increasingly popular for advocating widely accepted measures to fight the spread of the disease.
The departure of Mr. Mandetta, a doctor and former congressman, came as infectious-disease experts warn that the number of people infected and dying in this country of 210 million is rising more quickly that hospitals can handle. Officially, infections have ballooned to 30,425 as of Thursday, with 1,924 deaths, the most in Latin America. (…)
Rio de Janeiro’s Pontifical Catholic University recently estimated in a study that the real number of infected people is 12 times higher because of lack of testing. (…)
In a poll released earlier this month, 76% of respondents approved of the way Mr. Mandetta had handled the crisis, while only 33% approving of Bolsonaro’s efforts to deal with the pandemic. (…)
In an interview Wednesday with Veja magazine, Mr. Mandetta described the difficulty of working under a president at odds with the health policies of his ministry. “We have been in this battle for 60 days, it’s tiring… Sixty days having to measure every word,†Mr. Mandetta said.
In other recent public comments, Mr. Mandetta also suggested his boss was too optimistic about the use of the antimalarial drug chloroquine to fight the coronavirus. “It’s not a panacea, it’s not a remedy coming to save humanity,†he said. (…)
“The president has been denying scientific facts,†Mr. Arruda said. “It is becoming increasingly clear Bolsonaro’s inability to manage the country during this crisis.â€
What Would Aristotle Do in a Pandemic? Philosophy can help us navigate the moral dilemmas of the Covid-19 crisis.
(…) Could U.S. governors appeal to John Stuart Mill to justify their decision to keep houses of worship open during the pandemic, since that decision recognizes the freedom of people to make their own decisions? Certainly not. Mill extols freedom as much as anyone ever has, but he goes on: “The only freedom which deserves the name, is that of pursuing our own good in our own way, so long as we do not attempt to deprive others of theirs.†Yes, worshipers ought to be free to worship, but the contagiousness of the disease means that they would be depriving others of their freedom—in particular, their choosing to survive in good health.
Immanuel Kant (…) held that certain acts were intrinsically right, others intrinsically wrong, independent of their consequences, which are often too complicated for us to calculate. (…)
Consider the panic buying that the pandemic has prompted. The person who buys a few extra rolls of toilet paper in fear of a shortage is not, by that very act, harming anyone. But he or she is acting on the maxim that if there’s a potential shortage, stock up. The rule flunks the universalization test. Regardless of the commodity, when everyone hoards it, it creates the very shortage that people are hedging against.
Kant’s second standard is the end-in-itself test: Act in such a way that you never treat human beings, whether yourself or others, simply as a means to an end but as ends in themselves. To grasp what he had in mind we must understand that Kant, like Mill, sees the exercise of freedom as fundamental to human dignity. To use someone as a mere means is to involve them in a scheme of action to which they could not in principle consent. By usurping their freedom, you are diminishing their humanity.
This may apply to the societal dilemma of prioritizing the economy, with its diffuse benefits to many, at a cost to the first pioneers who return to work. If the young and fit are sent out to jump-start the economy, are they not being treated as mere means rather than as ends in themselves? Would they consent to their own exposure to Covid-19 or to transmitting the disease to their loved ones?
The difference between the utilitarian and Kantian approaches shouldn’t hide the similarities. Both see the point of morality as tempering a person’s self-interest with recognition of the self-interest of others. Though both maintain that the individual’s right to choose is crucial to human dignity, both also hold that morality demands we temper this individualism with a recognition of the common good. Behind both views we find the key moral insight that all humans matter.
A third alternative, which contrasts with the convictions of these two Enlightenment philosophers, is Aristotle’s virtue ethics. Aristotle singled out the cultivation of the virtues in one’s self, including temperance, courage, justice and munificence. The reason we ought to nurture these virtues is entirely self-interested: to live the best life we can, a life of flourishing or what he called eudaimonia. It also happens to be true that the virtuous person benefits his community, and while that may make him loved and respected, these side effects are not what make him virtuous.
The virtue of munificence is particularly relevant in this moment of our distress. It is not merely the willingness to make a sacrifice. The munificent person will give, writes Aristotle, “rightly, for he will give to the right people, and the right amount, and at the right time, and fulfill all the other conditions of right giving.“ Among all virtuous people, he writes, the munificent “are perhaps the most beloved because they are beneficial to others.â€
And so it is that we feel about the medical personnel who are working around the clock to save their patients, the scientists who have set aside the problems they ordinarily study and pivoted to the virus, the manufacturers who have switched their production lines from widgets to ventilators and N95 masks. They are not merely exercising a generosity of spirit but are deploying unique and irreplaceable assets, giving to the right people, in the right amount and at the right time. Whether the benefit they confer on us all is the goal of their actions or a happy byproduct of their virtue, their munificence justly wins them our love and respect.
- We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. U.S. Declaration of Independance
- Rightful liberty is unobstructed action according to our will within limits drawn around us by the equal rights of others. Thomas Jefferson
Some like to compare the mortality rate of Covid-19 with that from other illnesses or even accidents to debate on the wisdom of confinement versus the economic cost. But even with the reduced number of casualties owed to various confinement measures…
…Covid-19 is rapidly becoming America’s leading cause of death
In just weeks, covid-19 deaths have snowballed from a few isolated cases to thousands across the country each day.
Covid-19 killed more people from April 6 to April 12 than any other cause of death except heart disease typically does in a normal April week.
All of those comparisons include only confirmed cases. This week, New York City said it considered an additional 3,700 people who had passed away over the previous weeks to have died of covid-19, even though there were no lab tests proving it. Those deaths have not been added to official state and national counts, though.
Covid-19 is not killing at the same pace everywhere: In the worst-hit areas, it is killing at an unparalleled rate.
The weekly total of covid-19 deaths in New York state and New York City has dwarfed the scale of normal causes of death — explaining why hospitals are struggling to cope. And although the outbreaks in other cities aren’t as bad, Louisiana and the District of Columbia also had more covid-19 deaths than any typical cause of death last week. In places that started social distancing and restrictions on businesses earlier, the deaths per week are lower: Washington state suffered an early burst of the disease, but covid-19 did not kill as many people there last week as in other hot spots.
California has been spared the intensity of many other states. Covid-19 deaths there last week were well below the national rate. (…)
The number of daily recorded deaths averaged 1,766 between April 6-12 and 2,252 in the last 4 days. And today we learn that yesterday’s tally jumped top 4,591!
Coronavirus re-emergence will be a threat until 2024, Harvard study finds
The paper – by five researchers with the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, and published in the journal Science on Tuesday – found that a re-emergence of the virus was possible in the next four years.
It did not say social distancing measures would need to stay in place for the entire next two years, but suggested that “prolonged or intermittent distancing may be necessary into 2022†unless a vaccine or improved treatment was available, or critical care capacity – which has been widely overwhelmed – was increased substantially.
“Even in the event of apparent elimination, Sars-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024,†it said, referring to the virus’ official name. (…)
VIRAL STUFF
Most media are happy to report this hopeful note and GILD is up 12% this a.m.:
Gilead Sciences Inc. climbed as STAT reported severe Covid-19 patients being treated in Chicago with the company’s experimental drug remdesivir are “seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms.†Almost all patients were discharged in under than a week, and only two patients died, STAT said, citing comments made this week during a video discussion about trial results with University of Chicago faculty members. STAT cautions that trials are running at other institutions and full study results can’t yet be determined; Gilead told the news outlet that it’s looking forward to data becoming available.
But that comes after we learned this yesterday:
A trial for remdesivir, an experimental drug developed by Gilead Sciences Inc., in Covid-19 patients with mild or moderate symptoms, has been suspended in China, as no eligible patients could be recruited amid an abating epidemic, according to a Wednesday update on ClinicalTrials.gov. Previously, a trial for remdesivir in severely ill Covid-19 patients was terminated due to a stall in enrollment.
I am no expert on biotech but some people smell something fishy here given the somewhat controversial source of the “hearsays†and the vagueness of the details. Let’s hope not.
1 thought on “THE DAILY EDGE: 17 APRIL 2020: R20 Strategy Raising Cash”
$GILD: Apparently someone made a killing in options
“Been spending a lot of time after the close trying to figure out some inconsistencies with this Remdesivir news. With that said let me be clear, this is just what I found and my personal opinions only, it is not meant to be a conspiracy theory but do wanna share it anyway”
https://twitter.com/RealTianZeng/status/1250979087079878656
Zero Hedge is more direct:
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/gilead-pours-cold-water-report-sent-market-soaring-anecdotal-reports-no-statistical-power
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