***** MERRY CHRISTMAS *****
Edge and Odds will pause until January 3rd.
Personal Income and Outlays, November 2023
- Real expenditures rose 0.3%. Last 3 months: +3.2% a.r. after +2.8% in the previous 3 months.
- YoY, nominal expenditures are up 5.4%, in line with aggregate payrolls which are accelerating while inflation decelerates.
- In real terms, aggregate payrolls rose 0.8% MoM in November following 0% in each of the previous 2 months. YoY: +2.65%. Last 3 months annualized: +3.2%.
- Wages and salaries rose 0.6% MoM after 0.2% ad 0.4% in October and September respectively.
- Rental income rose 0.7%, same as the previous 4 months average. Somebody is paying these rent increases.
- Real expenditures on goods jumped 0.5% after -0.2% and +0.6%.
- Real expenditures on durable goods: +0.9% after -0.5% and +1.0%.
- Last 3 months +5.7% a.r.! Up from +4.0% in the previous 3 months.
- Real expenditures on services: +0.2% unchanged in last 3 months.
Canada Retail Sales Rise 0.7% in October Canadian retail spending flattened heading into the holiday season, an indication consumers may be hesitating in an environment of high interest rates and with signs showing the broader economy is struggling.
Retail sales were relatively unchanged last month, according to an advance estimate of receipts released Thursday by Statistics Canada.
That comes after sales in October rose 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted 66.95 billion Canadian dollars, the equivalent of about $50.08 billion, the data agency said. October’s rise, the biggest since April and only slightly softer than the 0.8% advance economists expected, builds on a downwardly revised 0.5% increase in September sales.
The advance was even stronger in volume terms, with sales up 1.2% from September, the largest increase this year and an indication the headline rise in sales was held back by a fall in prices.
Compared with a year earlier, retail sales in October were 2.2% higher. (…)
Two months of higher overall retail trade look to have leveled off in November, though Statistics Canada offered no details. Its estimate, based on responses by almost 55% of companies surveyed, will be revised. (…)
Data also released Thursday showed a fall in payroll employment in Canada for October, offsetting the prior month’s increase and after little movement in July and August. Employment in Canada has been growing at a slower pace than the expanding population in recent months, allowing the jobless rate to tick higher.
Canada’s economy contracted on an annualized basis in the third quarter of the year and economists anticipate little to no growth in the final three months of 2023. Manufacturing sales dropped 2.8% in October, driven by lower shipments of petroleum and coal products, and wholesale sales weakened 0.5% from the month before thanks in part to a fall in machinery, equipment and supplies. (…)
Another strong month for auto dealers drove the increase in October retail sales, helping counter a sharp drop in receipts at gasoline stations and fuel vendors as lower prices offset a rise in volumes. Sales increased in seven of nine subsectors tracked by the agency.
Stripping out gasoline stations and motor-vehicle and parts dealers, core retail sales were up 1.2% from September, buoyed by sales at general merchandise retailers.
In volume terms, price-adjusted sales climbed 1.4% for the month, much stronger than the 0.2% rise the previous month. (…)
SENTIMENT WATCH
Now, that’s a consensus!
Remind me what was the recession forecast one year ago.