U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Weakens in November
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that on the last business day of November, the total job openings rate fell to 6.6% from a record 7.0% in October, revised from 6.9%. It was the lowest rate since June. The job openings rate is calculated as job openings as a percent of total employment plus jobs that have not yet been filled.
The level of job openings fell 4.8% (+56.1% y/y) to 10.562 million from 11.091 million. November was the lowest level since June.
The hiring rate increased to 4.5% from 4.4% in each of the prior three months. It was well above the 3.8% low this past January. The level of hiring rose 2.9% (11.3% y/y) to 6.697 million. The overall layoff & discharge rate remained at the record low of 0.9% for the fourth consecutive month. The level of layoffs & discharges rose 1.4% m/m but fell 35.5% y/y. The quits rate returned in November to the record high of 3.0% and compared to the most recent low of 1.6% in April 2020.
The level of quits rose 37.3% y/y to a record 4.527 million. (…)
The layoff & discharge rate in the private sector remained at the record low of 1.0%. The 0.6% layoff & discharge rate in education & health services compared to a lessened 1.4% in professional & business services. In the government sector, the layoff & discharge rate was 0.3% for the third straight month. (…)
The private sector quits rate reached a record 3.4% in November, up from 1.8% in the spring of 2020. The leisure & hospitality quits rate of 6.4% compared to 2.8% in education & health services. The quits rate in the government sector remained low at 1.0% but it still was higher than 0.7% from this past May to July.
The November level of job quits in the private sector increased 9.3% (38.5% y/y) versus October. In the government sector the level of quits rose 1.9% (18.0% y/y), the fourth straight month of strong increase.
Demand up, supply down:
Quitting for something better, much better:
We get the employment stats on Friday. JPM’s job tracker is not looking up, is it?
The Paychex/IHS Markit Small Business Jobs Index is also on the weak side:
- The national index has gained a record high 7.31 percent during the past 12 months as small businesses continue to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.
- But MoM gains keep slowing from +0.50% in October to +0.27% in November and +0.22% in December. FYI, non-farm payrolls rose +0.37% (546k) in October and +.14 in November (210k). Last 4 months to November: +404k on average vs +641k between January and July and +889k between May and July.
- In December, 4 of the 9 industries surveyed saw lower MoM employment and 2 were unchanged. Only Leisure and Hospitality showed a strong uptrend at +1.4%.
- Hourly wages are up 4.3% YoY in December. They were up 3.0% last June. Last 3 months annualized: +4.2%.
- Weekly hours are down 0.2% in December.
WAGES & HOURS (YoY)
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Only 17% of workers say their pay has kept pace with inflation. A survey shows a vast majority of Americans across party lines are concerned about the rise in prices.
Only 17 percent of workers say they have received raises that kept up with inflation over the past year, according to a survey of 5,365 adults conducted last month for The New York Times by Momentive, the online research firm formerly known as SurveyMonkey. Most of the rest say either that they have received raises that lagged price increases or that they have received no raise at all; 8 percent of respondents said they had taken a pay cut.
Nearly nine in 10 Americans say they are at least “somewhat concerned” about inflation, and six in 10 are “very concerned.” Worries about inflation cross generational, racial and even partisan lines: 95 percent of Republicans, 88 percent of independents and 82 percent of Democrats say they are concerned. (…)
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING
- “Chemical supply chains are filling very slowly. Still not full, but (my) gut feeling says it’s getting easier to source chemical raw materials.” [Chemical Products]
- “Continued strong demand has our production facilities producing as many vehicles as we have materials for; however, capacity is limited due to the global chip shortage.” [Transportation Equipment]
- “Lowered oil prices due to (the) omicron variant has caused concern around production and capital spend in 2022.” [Petroleum & Coal Products]
- “Labor is still tight, and turnover continues. Supply chain issues are is still causing customer order cuts. Trucks are scarce, and the teams are burned out from working long hours and dealing with supply constraints daily.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
- “Price increases appear to be slowing. Lead times are shrinking slowly, and inventories are growing. I hope we have reached the top of the hill to start down a gentle slope that lets us get back to something that resembles normal.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
- “Business continues to be good, with strong incoming orders from customers. Continue to battle labor, material and transportation pressures.” [Furniture & Related Products]
- “Construction projects for 2022 and 2023 look very strong for us.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]
- “Costs for steel seem to be coming down some. We have seen a little relief on steel prices, but they are still very high. Overall performance by suppliers has improved. On-time deliveries have improved.” [Machinery]
- “Supply chain interruptions have dramatically increased in the fourth quarter. Many of our suppliers are unable to deliver product until January or February 2022 or later.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
- “Very robust order activity. Backlog increased. Plastic raw material shortages impact orders.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]
Thirteen of 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in new orders in December, in the following order: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The two industries reporting a decline in new orders in December are: Wood Products; and Paper Products.
- Commodities Up in Price (28 vs 36 last month)
Adhesives and Paint; Aluminum* (19); Capacitors; Corrugate (15); Corrugated Packaging (14); Diesel Fuel (12); Electrical Components (13); Electronic Components (13); Freight (14); Labor — Services; Labor — Temporary (8); Logistics Services; Lubricants; Lumber; Natural Gas* (6); Nylon (3); Ocean Freight (13); Packaging Supplies (13); Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs); Resin Based Products (11); Resistors; Rubber Based Products (5); Semiconductors (11); Silicone (2); Steel* (17); Steel — Galvanized; Steel — Stainless (14); and Steel Products* (16).
- Commodities Down in Price (8 vs 5 last month)
Aluminum* (2); Crude Oil; Ethylene; Natural Gas*; Polyethylene; Propylene; Steel* (2); and Steel — Hot Rolled (2).
- Commodities in Short Supply (10 vs 21 last month)
Aluminum (2); Copper Products; Electrical Cables; Electrical Components (15); Electronic Components (13); Labor — Temporary (8); Plastic Resins — Other (10); Rubber Based Products; Semiconductors (13); and Steel (13).
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity has been listed is indicated after each item.
Home Values in Already Hot U.S. Market to Surge 14% This Year, Zillow Says
Canadian Factory Prices Rise at Fastest Yearly Clip Since 1974 Prices charged by industrial producers rose 0.8% in November, with year-over-year gains accelerating to 18.1%.
Here’s the U.S. chart:
These cost pressures have pushed biz inflation expectations to the 4-6% range:
(Goldman Sachs via The Market Ear)
Gen Z’s investment pipeline
For today’s investors, the latest jackpot idea might be sandwiched between cat videos and political snark on social media. About 60% of Gen Z and millennial investors have made an investment as a result of social media, according to a new survey out today from M1 Financial.
Those most likely to act on social media tips are younger, short-term investors who are less financially stable, the survey shows. “It is almost impossible to scroll through social media or watch the news without hearing about someone hitting the jackpot through the latest meme stock or cryptocurrency,” Brian Barnes, M1 Finance CEO and founder, says in the release. (…) (Axios)
There is good news
From Dr. Katelyn Jetelina
Vaccines are working(…) And not just working okay, they are working incredibly well. I know this is hard to believe when everyone around us is testing positive. But vaccines are doing their primary job: keeping people out of the hospital. We can easily see that in many graphs, but my favorite is below from New York City, showing a clear distinction in hospitalizations among vaccinated compared to unvaccinated people. (…)
The Commonwealth Fund recently published a brief in which they analyzed the extent to which the vaccine program in the United States averted deaths and hospitalizations since its rollout. Their main conclusion was as follows:
“In the absence of a vaccination program, there would have been approximately 1.1 million additional COVID-19 deaths and more than 10.3 million additional COVID-19 hospitalizations in the U.S. by November 2021.” (…)
