Iran Satellite Images Show Race to Get Its Oil Out Into the World
Oil is gushing out of the nation’s ports and onto ocean-tankers, ensuring revenues would continue — at least for a while — if shipments are disrupted. Despite the surge, storage tanks at the nation’s critical export terminal at Kharg Island are brimming with crude. (…)
Iran’s oil exports have spiked since the nation came under attack from Israel on Friday, according to Madani.
It exported an average of 2.33 million barrels a day in the five days the attacks began June 13, according to data from TankerTrackers.com. That’s an increase of 44% compared with the average for the year through to June 14. (…)
China’s bet on Iranian oil and Middle East influence turns sour President Xi is likely to double down on energy independence drive as Strait of Hormuz risks rise
Israel’s attacks on Iran threaten to cut China off from critical oil trading partners, highlighting its need for greater energy independence and disrupting Beijing’s hopes for a bigger role in the region.
For years, China has used its relationship with Iran to expand its influence in the Middle East, while making cheap Iranian crude, and Gulf supplies more broadly, a bedrock of the energy mix for the world’s biggest buyer of oil.
Chinese President Xi Jinping said this week that all parties to the conflict between Israel and Iran should work “as soon as possible to prevent further escalation of tensions”. China has said the US should not interfere with its “normal trade” with Iran and has opposed US-led sanctions. (…)
Since US-led sanctions on Iran’s nuclear programme were stepped up in late 2018, Beijing and Tehran have strengthened ties. Beijing has become Tehran’s most important economic lifeline, buying the vast majority of Iranian oil shipments and supplying the country with electronics, vehicles and machinery, and nuclear power equipment.
Last year, Iranian oil accounted for as much as 15 per cent of the crude shipped to the world’s second-biggest economy. (…)
In fact, China, directly from Xi, told the US not to get directly involved. There certainly are serious conversations behind the scene.
Richard Haass in the FT:
There is no easy option without downsides. The best course of action for Trump now would be to give Iran one last chance to accept a diplomatic deal.
Such a proposal would require that Iran agree to hand over all of its enriched uranium, dismantle centrifuges and other known elements of its nuclear programme, and agree to open-ended inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Such an offer would include relief for Iran from economic sanctions, a withdrawal of the US threat to attack, a larger ceasefire and some face-saving mechanism by which Iran could participate in a regional uranium enrichment consortium tied to the generation of nuclear energy, not weapons.
Iran might accept it. After all, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini reluctantly agreed to an end to the war with Iraq in 1988 to save the 1979 revolution that brought the Islamic Republic into existence. Khomeini compared making this decision to drinking poison.
The time is fast approaching when his successor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, might have to swallow the poison too.
Israel’s War on Iran Is Costing Hundreds of Millions of Dollars a Day The high price tag will weigh on Israel to wrap up the conflict quickly
(…) The mounting costs add up to pressure on Israel to wrap up the war quickly.
Israeli officials have said the new offensive could last for two weeks, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shown no indication of stopping before Israel achieves all of its goals, which include the elimination of Iran’s nuclear program and its ballistic-missile production and arsenal. (…)
Over the last few days, Iran has launched more than 400 missiles at Israel, according to the Israeli government, which require sophisticated air-defense systems to stop. More missiles usually means more [costly] interceptors. (…)
“Per day, it is much more expensive than the war in Gaza or with Hezbollah. And it all comes from the ammunition. That’s the big expense,” said Zvi Eckstein, who heads the Aaron Institute for Economic Policy at Reichman University in Israel, referring to both defensive and offensive munitions.
According to an estimate by the institute, a war with Iran that lasts one month will amount to around $12 billion. (…)
CONSUMER WATCH
Americans Are Side-Hustling Like We’re in a Recession The two-job trend these days is about necessity, not pursuing a passion
The share of working Americans holding down multiple jobs rose to between 5.3% and 5.5% during the first five months of the year. That’s a range we haven’t seen since the recession of the aughts, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (…)
Roughly four in 10 millennials and Gen Zers have side jobs, according to new research by Deloitte. Elizabeth Faber, Deloitte’s global chief people and purpose officer, says it’s notable that the share of millennials working two jobs has been virtually unchanged for several years.
People typically have less need for side hustles as they advance in their careers. But it isn’t playing out that way for a group already scarred by two recessions. (…)
In a recent Indeed survey, 52% of respondents said they have side hustles to make ends meet, much higher than the Labor Department’s figure. Rathod says that could be because the poll includes people who don’t have two steady jobs, but occasionally drive for DoorDash or pick up freelance projects on Fiverr. (…)
Don’t angst too much on this. The absolute numbers are higher than before but relatively it’s only a bit above pre-pandemic levels and in line with pre-GFC. Some Americans would rather work more than spend less.
That said, the labor market keeps weakening. Job postings on Indeed (through June 13) keep declining suggesting that job openings could soon fall below pre-pandemic levels.
Almost a Third of Eurozone’s U.S. Trade Surplus Is Due to U.S. Firms, Says ECB The ECB’s research highlights the outsized role played by Ireland in the trans-Atlantic economy
Almost a third of the eurozone’s goods trade surplus with the U.S. is accounted for by sales of products manufactured by the affiliates of American businesses, which also account for most of the eurozone’s deficit in the trade in services, the European Central Bank said Friday.
In its latest Economic Bulletin, economists at the central bank said that should the activities carried out by those affiliates be moved back to the U.S. in response to higher tariffs or changes to U.S. tax policy, the eurozone economy would be smaller, but the impact on employment and incomes would likely be limited.
“Over a longer period, productivity may suffer if the domestic economy is no longer gaining the positive spillovers,” the ECB’s economists wrote.
The ECB’s research highlights the complexity of trade and investment relations between the eurozone and the U.S., and the outsized role played by Ireland in the trans-Atlantic economy.
Many of the U.S. firms that contribute to the eurozone’s surplus in goods are based in Ireland, and manufacture pharmaceuticals. But they also import services from the U.S. such as the use of intellectual property, while sending large profits back to their American shareowners.
The ECB said that in 2024, the flows of goods, services and profits between the U.S. and the eurozone broadly evened out, even if the eurozone had a large surplus in the trade in goods.
“The euro area current account with the United States was nearly balanced in 2024, as the increasing surplus in goods trade was almost entirely offset by deficits in services trade and foreign direct investment income,” the ECB said.
The eurozone operations of U.S. multinational enterprises contributed “significantly” to those flows, the ECB said. Its economists estimated that 30% of the eurozone’s surplus in goods was due to the sales of U.S. businesses, while those same companies accounted for 90% of the eurozone’s services deficit. (…)
While Ireland can offer skilled workers familiar with U.S. regulatory requirements to the pharmaceuticals industry, it is also attractive as a way of lowering their tax bills.
President Trump has made it clear that he is unhappy that such a large share of pharmaceutical production for U.S. consumption is located overseas. (…)