The enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it’s the illusion of knowledge (Stephen Hawking)

It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so (Mark Twain)

Invest with smart knowledge and objective odds

EUROZONE MANUFACTURING PMI DEPRESSED BY FRANCE

Conditions in the eurozone manufacturing sector remained lacklustre at the start of the second quarter, as rates of expansion eased for both production and incoming new orders. Brighter news was provided on the employment and price fronts, as jobs growth gained momentum and deflationary pressures moderated.

The final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® ticked higher for a second successive month, posting three-month high of 51.7. This was above March’s 51.6, the earlier flash estimate of 51.5 and the long-run survey average of 51.4. The reading was nonetheless among the weakest registered over the past year.

image

Of the six nations for which April data were available (Ireland is published on 3rd May and Greece on 4th May), five registered expansions Italy and Spain saw the imagefastest growth, with rates of increase accelerating slightly in both cases. The Netherlands and Austria posted modest expansions, albeit weaker than in the prior month.

The German PMI meanwhile rose to a three-month high, but remained in the lower half of the PMI growth rankings. France remained in contraction territory during April as the PMI slipped to a 12-month low. France saw new orders and output fall at the steepest rates since February 2015 and April 2015 respectively. Weak domestic demand combined with the worst decline in new export orders for over three years.

Although growth of both eurozone manufacturing production and new orders were slower than in March, the trend in new export business improved slightly. Germany, Italy and Spain all saw stronger gains in new export business. A solid increase was also registered in the Netherlands.

Current inflows of new work were still sufficient to test manufacturers’ capacity, leading to a modest accumulation of backlogs. This encouraged companies to increase employment for the twentieth successive month.

Jobs growth accelerated to its highest rate since January, underpinned by increased employment in almost all of the nations covered by the survey. The sole exception was France, which saw staffing levels decrease for the second month in a row.

April saw further reductions in both output prices and input costs at eurozone manufacturers. However, in a further sign of deflationary pressures easing, rates of decline in both eased over the month.

Input costs fell at the slowest pace in four months, with rates of decrease moderating in all of the nations covered. Lower factory gate prices were meanwhile registered across the board, although by far the steepest reduction was posted in France.

image

JAPAN MANUFACTURING PMI SINKS WITH SLUMP IN ORDERS

Latest survey data pointed to a sharp deterioration in manufacturing conditions. Production decreased at the quickest rate since April 2014, led by the fastest decline in new orders in over three years. As a result, firms cut back on their input buying at the most marked rate in two years. Employment, on the other hand, remained in growth territory for the seventh consecutive month. Meanwhile, input prices declined at the quickest rate since August 2012, enabling companies to lower their charges further.

The headline PMI posted 48.2 in April, down from 49.1 in March, thereby highlighting a sharper deterioration in operating conditions at Japanese manufacturers. Moreover, the latest reading was the lowest since January 2013. Contributing to the overall decline in operating was a fall in output. In fact, the rate of decrease was the fastest in two years. The recent earthquakes in one of Japan’s key manufacturing regions was cited by panellists as having a detrimental effect on production.

image

A contraction in output was matched by a marked decrease in new orders. Moreover, the rate of decline was the quickest since December 2012. Panellists attributed the fall in total new work intakes to a weaker Asian economy leading to a slump in foreign demand.

Subsequently, new export orders decreased at the sharpest rate since January 2013. Firms mentioned a reduction in trade volumes with Taiwan and China in particular. At the sector level, all three market groups registered marked falls in foreign demand, with investment goods producers noting the fastest decline.

As a result, manufacturers cut back on buying activity and made deliberate efforts to clear inventories of pre-production items. Meanwhile, employment increased for the seventh month running, with the rate of expansion the best recorded since January.

Reports of reduced raw material costs, particularly oil- and metal-related items led to further fall in input costs. In fact, the rate of decline was the sharpest in over three-and-a-half years. Consequently, manufacturers were able to reduce their charges for the fifth successive month.