First coronavirus death traced to Sturgis Motorcyle Rally that drew 400,000 people The case, involving a biker in his 60s, is one of at least 260 infections traced back to the South Dakota event last month where many declined to wear masks.
A Minnesota biker who attended the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally has died of covid-19 — the first fatality from the virus traced to the 10-day event that drew more than 400,000 to South Dakota. (…) The case is among at least 260 cases in 11 states tied directly to the event, according to a survey of health departments by The Washington Post.
Epidemiologists believe that figure is a significant undercount, due to the resistance of some rallygoers to testing and the limited contact tracing in some states. As a result, the true scope of infections stemming from the event that ran from Aug. 7 to Aug. 16 is unlikely to ever be known. Public health officials had long expressed concern over the decision to move forward with the annual event, believed to be the largest held anywhere in the U.S. since the pandemic shelved most large-scale gatherings. (…)
An analysis of anonymized cellphone data, conducted by a firm called Camber Systems, found that 61 percent of all U.S. counties had been visited by a rallygoer. (…)
The NYT adds:
Before Aug. 1, Meade County, which includes Sturgis, had reported just 71 cases over the pandemic’s first six months. By Sept. 1, the figure had shot up to 305, according to the State Health Department. That includes 26 cases detected when the city of Sturgis held a testing event for residents after the rally; 650 people took part. (…)
Despite the surge of cases in South Dakota, Gov. Kristi Noem has said she has no plans to tighten restrictions in the state or issue a mask order.
“I won’t be changing my recommendations that I can see in the near future,” Ms. Noem, a Republican, said at the Sioux Falls Rotary Club on Monday. “I think this is where we expected to be. None of this is a surprise, and we will continue to evaluate and see what the future looks like.”
Another mass event, the South Dakota State Fair, is scheduled to open in Huron, S.D., on Thursday and last through Labor Day. “Exposure to Covid-19 is an inherent risk in any public location where people are present,” the fair warns on its website, adding, “By visiting the South Dakota State Fairgrounds, you voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to Covid-19.”
Never mind the risks of spreading the virus to your neighbors around y’all.
Look who’s catchin’ up:
Another way of looking at this from Axios: “Arizona, California and Texas — continued to improve, but those gains were canceled out by rising caseloads in 18 states, including seven where daily infections were up by more than 50%. (…) At the University of Alabama, for example, 1,200 students and over 150 employees have caught the virus since classes resumed, and now the state overall has some of the biggest increases in the country.”
In Quebec City, Canada, slightly fewer than 100 people recently gathered in a karaoke bar, drinking and singing together, sharing a mike (!). Forty (more than 40%) were found carrying the covid-19 and unknowingly (!) spreading it around, indirectly impacting five schools in the process.
- Thirty-five percent of Americans said they wouldn’t get a free FDA-approved vaccine if it were ready, according to a poll released Aug. 7 by Gallup. Four in 10 nonwhite Americans and nearly half of Republicans said they wouldn’t get vaccinated, while Democrats were more likely to say they would. (NYT)
SERVICES PMIs
The U.S. Services PMI ia out later today. Will be covered tomorrow.
Markedly lower growth of eurozone economy during August
The recovery of the eurozone’s private sector economy lost momentum in August as growth eased markedly on July’s recent peak. After accounting for seasonal factors, the IHS Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index fell to 51.9, down from 54.9 in the previous month. The index was, however, higher than the earlier flash reading (51.6) and represented moderate growth in activity.
There was a divergence in performance in activity by sector during August. Manufacturing output rose markedly and at the fastest pace since April 2018. Although service sector activity also rose for a second month in succession, the rate of growth eased sharply and was only marginal.
Underpinned by a strong performance in its manufacturing sector, Germany was the best-performing country during August, although overall growth was a little softer than the previous month. Ireland and France also recorded gains in activity although, in the case of the latter, the rate of expansion was much slower than in July.
In contrast, subdued service sector performances meant that Italy and Spain recorded outright declines in private sector activity during August.
Levels of new business increased for a second successive month during August, although growth was modest and weaker than in July. New export sales were reported to have fallen again, extending the current period of contraction to nearly two years.
With activity rising at a slightly firmer rate than new business, private sector companies were comfortably able to keep on top of workloads. Latest data showed an eighteenth successive monthly fall in backlogs of work, although August’s contraction was only modest.
Companies subsequently again made cuts to employment numbers in August, extending the current period of contraction to six months. Whilst the weakest in this sequence, the degree to which staffing levels declined was again marked. All nations covered registered a decline in employment, with Spain recording the strongest contraction followed by France and then Germany.
Meanwhile, operating expenses rose for a third successive month. The rate of inflation was solid, and reached its highest level since February. In contrast, output charges continued to fall, in line with the trend since March. Competitive pressures and the challenging business environment continued to weigh on pricing power. That said, the decline was modest and the weakest in the current sequence.
Looking to the year ahead, business confidence remained in positive territory. Sentiment about the next 12 months was however slightly down compared to July.
The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI® Services Business Activity Index recorded a notably slower rate of growth during August. After accounting for seasonal factors, the index declined to 50.5, from 54.7 in July. A marked slowdown of growth in France, plus returns to contraction in Italy and Spain, weighed heavily on overall service sector expansion.
Following modest growth in July, a slight contraction of new business was seen during August led by falls in Italy and Spain. Foreign trade was noted as a particular source of demand weakness, with new export business declining for a twenty-fourth month in succession and at a severe rate.
The underwhelming trend in new work meant firms were comfortably able to keep on top of overall workloads, with backlogs of work declining solidly and for a sixth month in succession. Job losses were also extended to a sixth straight month as firms grew more cautious about the future. Lower employment was seen across the eurozone, with the exception of Germany where a slight rise was registered.
Meanwhile, operating expenses continued to rise, increasing for a third successive month and at the fastest pace since February. However, output charges continued to be cut in line with the challenging economic environment.
Finally, business expectations for the next year slipped when compared to July, falling to a three-month low. Spanish service providers were the least optimistic about the future.
CHINA: Solid increase in services activity during August
August data signalled another solid increase in Chinese service sector
activity, as businesses continued to recover from the coronavirus disease
2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. New order growth also remained marked,
despite easing further from June’s recent record. The sustained increases in activity and sales led firms to expand their workforce numbers for the first time in seven months. This contributed to a stronger increase in input costs, which in turn drove a renewed rise in output charges.The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index fell only fractionally from 54.1 in July to 54.0 in August, to signal a further solid increase in business activity midway through the third quarter. Although softening further from June’s near-decade high, the latest uptick extended the current
sequence of growth to four months. The data therefore adds to signs that
the sector continued to recover from the marked drops in activity earlier in
the year following the COVID-19 outbreak.
The return to more normal market conditions, greater client numbers and
the resumption of projects led to a further increase in new orders during
August. Although solid, the latest upturn marked the softest increase for four
months, with the rate of growth slipping below the long-run series average.
Higher sales were largely driven by firmer domestic demand, according to
underlying data, as new export work fell for the second month in a row.Higher operational requirements led companies to expand their workforce
numbers in August. Though only slight, it marked the first increase in
employment across the sector since January. Companies reported having sufficient capacity to process and complete inflows of new work in August. As a result, outstanding business fell slightly, following a mild increase in July. (…)Although services companies generally expect business activity to be
higher than current levels in one year’s time, the overall degree of positive
sentiment dipped to a three-month low in August. Many firms anticipate
market conditions to continue to recover from the pandemic and customer
demand to rise further. However, there were also some companies that
expect the pandemic to continue to impact their business operations and
sales in the months ahead.
Fed Beige Book Finds Modest Economic Growth Activity remains well below levels before the pandemic, report says
The report painted a picture of an economy moving on multiple tracks. Some industries—such as residential construction and real estate, auto sales or manufacturing—saw pent-up customer demand return as coronavirus-related lockdowns eased. One Boston furniture retailer reported sales were running 30% above last summer.
But others—notably commercial real estate, restaurants and tourism—continued to struggle, the report said. An airport in southern California said it was receiving only 9% of its regular number of domestic travelers and international arrivals had almost completely stopped. (…)
“Continued uncertainty and volatility related to the pandemic, and its negative effect on consumer and business activity, was a theme echoed across the country,” the report said. (…)
From tracktherecovery.org:
- No progress on the stimulus front. Mitch McConnell expressed doubts, saying talks haven’t been fruitful and that any embrace of bipartisanship has “descended” as the fall elections near. The lack of progress comes even as the U.S. labor market remains wobbly. (Bloomberg)
Doing the Math on Third-Quarter GDP Even if the economy performs poorly this month, third-quarter gross domestic product is going to look good. But the economy would still be in a hole.
(…) Tack on July’s gain to the bounce late in the second quarter and at the start of August, GDP was an estimated 7.3% above its average second quarter level. Annualize that figure and it comes to 32.6%. (…) Even if August and September figures end up looking significantly worse, GDP will likely grow in excess of an annualized 20%, easily making it the best quarter on record. (…)
But the way the math on annualization and percentages works, it would take a much bigger bounce in GDP—an annualized 46.4%—to get back to even with the first quarter. And to get back to even with the fourth quarter of last year, before the Covid crisis hit, it would have to grow at a 54.1% rate. (…)
The third-quarter GDP report comes out on October 29—just five days before the election—so the impressive-looking growth figure will likely be highly politicized. (…)
TECHNICALS WATCH
13/34–Week EMA Trend (CMG Wealth)
Who will be affected by China’s new tech export restrictions?
China’s new tech export restrictions not only add uncertainty to the sale of TikTok’s U.S. operations but also could affect exports of broader consumer tech products such as drones and cellphones.
The new rules, unveiled Friday by China’s Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology, added 23 items—including personal information push services based on data analysis and voice-recognition technologies commonly used in smartphones, robots and wearable devices—to the restricted list. Technologies on the list can’t be exported without a license from the government.
The inclusion of drone technology on the list could also affect China’s DJI Technology, the world’s biggest drone manufacturer with an estimated 70% of the global market. An executive at another robotics company told Caixin that the policy could affect the export of its interactive robots.
BIRTHDAY PRESENT IDEA
Here’s an original present if you are short of ideas. Lift off starts at around 2:02:00.
Russians Again Pushing Disinformation in U.S., Facebook and Twitter Say