Rising U.S. Cases Complicate School Reopenings The U.S. reported more than 43,000 new coronavirus infections, over 9,000 more than the previous day, and the death toll approached 185,000
Florida reported more than 7,000 new cases, its highest daily rise since Aug. 11, according to the Florida Department of Health. The number of infections also rose in Texas, which reported nearly 5,000 new cases, according to Johns Hopkins data. (…)
Some schools returned to campus last month only to close after struggling to contain the virus. Colleges and universities are facing similar battles. (…)
India reported more than 78,000 new cases, a sharp increase from the previous day, taking the total number to more than 3.7 million, according to the country’s Health Ministry. The country added more than 1,000 fatalities to the death toll, which stands at 66,333. (…)
A Virus Progress Report It’s no time to be complacent, but the summer surge has eased.
From the WSJ editorial board:
We hate to be the bearer of good news, but here goes: The so-called second virus wave is receding and has been far less deadly than the first in the spring thanks to better therapies and government preparation. Nobody is suggesting we should now let it rip, but the progress should give Americans more confidence that schools and businesses can reopen safely. (…)
Hospitalizations and deaths in hot spots peaked at about the same time in apparent contradiction to epidemiological models that have predicted two- to three-week lags between cases, hospitalizations and deaths. (…)
The best news is that the virus is killing fewer Americans than it did during the spring. (…) One reason is better (and earlier) treatment including less intensive ventilation and therapies like remdesivir. Doctors in Texas and Arizona have said they prepared for their states’ surge by seeking advice from doctors in New York City.
States also are doing a better job protecting their elderly and vulnerable populations, so there have been relatively fewer deaths in nursing homes. (…)
Nobody is suggesting the U.S. has achieved herd immunity and should now declare victory. Americans will have to behave cautiously for many more months, but it’s still worth taking stock of progress. (…)
John Hopkins’ national data suggest that the lags between hospitalization and deaths remain and that, excluding the Northeast, deaths remain very elevated vs the spring.
SOUTH
WEST
(NBF)
Fathom Consulting:
There appears to be very little evidence of a trade-off between health outcomes and economic outcomes in the first half of the year. On the whole, countries that have handled the health crisis well – in particular South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam – have achieved better economic outcomes. Sweden, the European outlier in its approach towards lockdowns, has experienced similar economic outcomes to the likes of Denmark, Finland and Norway but suffered from a far greater health crisis.
The key to the success appears to be accurately tracking the spread of the disease. According to the University of Oxford’s COVID-19 government response tracker, Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam all began comprehensive tracing regimes early. Without these measures, it seems that lockdowns (which do entail a heavy economic cost) were the only way to prevent a rapid spread of the disease. In contrast to the Asian success stories, the Oxford researchers judge that the UK did not manage this until June and that the US still has not achieved it.
Axios:
The Trump administration has decided to prioritize its own citizens on a coronavirus vaccine, betting it will win the race for a vaccine without any help from foreign countries. (…)
172 countries have submitted “expressions of interest” in the COVAX initiative, which would have richer countries fund at least nine vaccine candidates and then globally distribute them according to need if one succeeds. (…)
The Trump administration has compared its approach to that of an airplane passenger securing their oxygen mask before helping others, Thomas Bollyky and Chad Bown write in Foreign Affairs.
The U.S. is refusing to join a global effort to develop and distribute a coronavirus vaccine, partly because the World Health Organization is co-leading it, and partly because it seems to be gambling that it will win the “vaccine race” on its own. The U.S.’ traditional allies are backing the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (Covax) Facility, but the White House said it would “not be constrained by multilateral organizations influenced by the corrupt World Health Organization and China.” Washington Post
“America is taking a huge gamble by taking a go-it-alone strategy,” global health law professor Lawrence Gostin told WashPost.
Why Manufacturing Is So Strong in a Pandemic
The Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday said that its index of manufacturing rose to 56 in August from 54.2 in July, extending its rebound from March, when it fell to 41.5. Anything over 50 represents expansion.
The ISM index is a diffusion index, based on the share of survey respondents who say business is getting better versus those saying it is getting worse, so it is only a loose measure of manufacturing growth. But there is little doubt that American factories are in fine fettle, benefiting from a surge in consumer spending on goods that has far outpaced the rebound in spending in the far larger services sector.
Commerce Department figures released last week that showed monthly spending on goods, which fell by about 15% from February to April, was 6.1% above its February level in July. Spending on services, on the other hand, was still 9.3% below its February level in July. It is a change from what has happened in past recessions, where services spending usually holds up while goods spending falls and takes a long time to recover. (…)
People are now buying the cars they were making plans to buy before the Covid-19 crisis struck, but there is no catch-up spending on the haircuts or restaurant meals they missed. Second, in many places there remain restrictions on services, such as movie theaters, and even in instances where restrictions have been lifted, many consumers are uncomfortable about returning to their old routines. (…)
August Vehicles Sales increased to 15.2 Million SAAR Wards estimated light vehicle sales of 15.19 million SAAR in August 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 4.6% from the July sales rate, and down 11.0% from August 2019.
The consumer remains the key. Equity markets don’t care much…
…in spite of the strong historical correlation:
“As the recovery has slowed down we’ve seen a couple of metrics transform from something that was extraordinary and unique and that we’d only seen in this COVID recession to something that is much more in line with our historic experience with typical recessions,” Ernie Tedeschi, a managing director and policy economist for Evercore ISI, tells Axios.
The warning signs he sees:
- The increasing number of layoffs that have gone from classified as temporary to classified as permanent.
- The increasing number of men who have lost jobs in recent months, a traditional recession dynamic and reversal of the trend that saw more women being laid off in early months.
- The rising rate of long-term unemployment, an unfortunate hallmark of the 2008 Great Recession.
Massive surge in speculative trading – AGAIN
Starting in mid-May, options traders were becoming optimistic to a worrying degree. It reached a fever pitch by early June.
Behavior like that has historically led to extremely limited upside, and usually a correction that wipes away weeks or months worth of gains. And yet here we are months later, talking about records in momentum.
Traders have taken notice. The “stocks only go up” mentality seems to have taken a firm hold, and last week we saw – yet again – a massive increase in speculative activity among the most leveraged contracts. (SentimeTrader)
(…) it would be exceptionally unusual to see zealous behavior like this continue to be rewarded. Markets just aren’t that easy for that long for this many traders.
Russians Again Pushing Disinformation in U.S., Facebook and Twitter Say