US producer prices unexpectedly fall; goods deflation seen persisting

(…) The producer price index for final demand dipped 0.1% last month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Data for November was revised to show the PPI falling 0.1% instead of being unchanged as previously reported. The PPI has now declined for three consecutive months. (…)

Goods prices dropped 0.4%, with a 12.4% decline in the cost of diesel fuel accounting for half of the decrease.

Goods prices fell 0.3% in November. They have dropped for three straight months. Excluding food and energy, goods prices were unchanged after edging up 0.1% in November.

The weakness also suggested that goods deflation remained in force despite an uptick in consumer goods prices in December following two straight monthly decreases. (…)

In the 12 months through December, the PPI increased 1.0% after advancing 0.8% in November. (…)

The narrower measure of PPI, which strips out food, energy and trade services components, rose 0.2% in December after gaining 0.1% in the prior month. The so-called core PPI rose 2.5% on a year-on-year basis after increasing 2.4% in November. (…)

Based on the CPI and PPI data, economists estimated the PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in December after gaining 0.1% in November and October. In the 12 months through December, the so-called core PCE price was forecast increasing 3.0%. That would be the smallest year-on-year gain since March 2021 and follow a 3.2% rise in November.

The overall PCE price index is also seen climbing 0.2% in December, with the annual increase forecast to come in at about 2.6%, unchanged from November’s advance. (…)

• Atlanta Fed boss warns US progress on inflation is likely to slow Raphael Bostic believes rates need to stay on hold until at least summer to prevent prices from rising again

• Goolsbee Says Investors Got Ahead of Fed on Rate-Cut Bets

• @RBAdvisors: Both today’s #PPI and yesterday’s #CPI troughed 6-7 months ago. Yet the #Fed is apparently signaling “Mission Accomplished.”

Bank of Canada surveys show weak business environment, lower inflation expectations

The central bank’s Business Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter of 2023 found Canadian companies are experiencing slowdowns in sales and increased competition. As a result, fewer businesses are planning larger-than-normal price increases in the coming year.

A separate survey of consumers found that Canadians are growing more pessimistic about the economy and pulling back on spending. (…)

The survey of about 100 companies, conducted in the second half of November, shows a weakening business environment. Nearly 40 per cent of the survey respondents saw outright declines in sales over the past year. And indicators of future sales – including order books, advance bookings and sales inquiries – remained subdued.

The dour outlook for demand is feeding into weaker investment intentions and hiring plans.

“Most firms do not feel the need to add new staff and are experiencing less-intense labour shortages than 12 months ago,” the Bank of Canada said.

Companies still expect to raise wages faster than normal over the next year as a result of cost-of-living adjustments. However, three-quarters of the survey respondents expect wage growth will be back to pre-COVID-19 norms by 2025.

Over all, business expectations of future inflation continued to ease in the fourth quarter, albeit very slightly. About one-quarter of the companies surveyed said inflation won’t return to the Bank of Canada’s 2-per-cent target in the next four years. (…)

“Consumers continued to report feeling the negative impacts of high inflation and high interest rates, and more than last quarter are cutting their spending in response. Further spending adjustments are expected, with many mortgages coming up for renewal in the near term,” the Bank of Canada said.

Survey respondents reported feeling worse about their personal finances and more wary about the job market. People saw a higher likelihood of losing their jobs and a lower chance of switching jobs voluntarily. (…)

Consumer beliefs about near-term inflation have barely budged in recent quarters, with people consistently expecting inflation to be around 5 per cent in a year’s time. However, expectations for inflation five years out have now fallen below prepandemic levels.

Consumers increasingly expect inflation to moderate for key goods such as food and gas. But they think service prices, especially rents, will continue to rise quickly, and that “may be slowing progress in returning overall inflation expectations to where they were before the COVID‑19 pandemic,” the bank said. (…)

China’s Ping An Bank Names 41 Developers in Funding Support List

Major Chinese lender Ping An Bank Co. has put 41 developers on a list of builders eligible for its funding support, a shift toward more lending to a property sector in crisis following government steps to stanch the pain.

The bank decided to adjust criteria related to extending credit lines to meet builders’ reasonable funding demands, people familiar with the matter said, requesting anonymity discussing private matters. That mirrors a task that authorities set out in a major annual government economic conference last month, and comes after regulators drafted their own list of builders to guide financial institutions as they weigh more lending. (…)

“It’s hard to say how much benefit companies on that list will receive from the bank’s lending, but companies not on that list will be regarded by investors as abandoned by the bank,” said Shujin Chen, analyst at Jefferies Financial Group. “Ping An Bank’s exposure to property sector is not small, so its list can also be seen as a signal for the sector.” (…)

More than half of the builders on the current list are state-backed companies including Poly Property Group Co. and Beijing Urban Construction Group Co. The rest cover private-sector peers such as Longfor Group Holdings Ltd., China Vanke Co. and Gemdale Corp. (…)

Ping An Insurance (Group) Co., parent of Ping An Bank, had previously said it’s trying to reduce exposure to the sector, and regulators have been encouraging insurers to focus on their core business. The latest list marks a shift in strategy and may see other banks follow suit.

The bank told its departments and branches that they should extend full lending support to developers on the list operating normally, and refrain from cutting or suspending credit lines, said the people. The lender also urged them to use maturity extensions and rescheduling payment arrangements to alleviate builders’ liquidity pressure, the people added. (…)

Ping An Bank ranked as the country’s 13th-biggest bank by assets last year, according to local media citing a league table from the China Banking Association. (…)

• Latest Stress Testing on Chinese Banks Highlights Rising Capital Pressure The latest stress test on Chinese banks shows persisting capital pressure across the sector, including some of the domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), although individual banks’ capability to withstand an external shock varies significantly.

(…) The stress test shows that, in a mild economic downturn, the 19 D-SIBs’ average capital-adequacy ratio (CAR) would drop to 14.5% by end-2025 from the reported CAR of 16.3% at end-2022. This is a more severe capital deterioration than in last year’s macro-stress testing results, where the average CAR would decline to 14.8% by end-2024 from 16.1% at end-2021. The latest testing assumes more pessimistic economic forecasts than in previous years, likely indicating the rising risks faced by the Chinese economy. (…)

A more severe scenario, with GDP growth assumptions at 1.1%, 2.9% and 3.2% in 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively, which are higher than our hypothetical stress scenario of growth slowing to 1.5% and 2.0% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, found that the 19 D-SIBs’ average CAR would drop to 12.7% by end-2025 and remain above the minimum requirement. However, we believe if such a severe stress scenario were to materialise, it would trigger rising downside risks to banks’ operating environment and their standalone Viability Ratings. (…)

The vulnerability revealed by the latest stress tests reinforces our base case that a reversal of financial reforms or sharp, broad-scale credit growth is unlikely as such outcomes could further undermine loss absorption capacity at banks and increase risks to financial stability. Instead, we expect the authorities to continue a targeted credit allocation approach, with regulators guiding selected banks in channelling credit to strategic sectors, especially given the government’s focus on maintaining systemic stability and pushing forward risk resolutions at small and medium-sized banks.

As I reported last week (China: Here We Go!) China is using the Fed’s QE playbook (Chinese Cities Buy Housing With PBOC-Tied Loans, Report Says).

As Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott says just before the snap: “Here we go!”. Finally a concrete measure to begin to really address China’s real estate problem. A Chinese version of the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program: the central bank provides low cost funds to cities to purchase vacant apartment buildings from troubled developers or, even better, from troubled LGFVs, thereby transferring bad debt up to the PBOC.

The PBOC should provide an update on the use of its tools later this month, potentially confirming that banks have tapped the funds for the rental program. Look for the $14B program to repeatedly be extended.

EARNINGS WATCH

We have 29 reports in: the beat rate is 93% and the surprise factor is +2.4%.

• All 12 consumer-centric companies beat with surprise factors of +5.8% (staples) and +13.5% (discretionary)
• 6 of 7 Financials beat but the surprise factor was only +0.1%

Trailing EPS are now $220.06 and full year 2024 $243.51.

US Inflation Picks Up, Signaling Bumpy Path for Fed Consumer price index advanced 3.4%, most in three months

(…) It also rose by more than forecast on a monthly basis as housing costs continued to climb, Americans paid more to drive and energy prices advanced for the first time since September. (…)

Much of the surprise in so-called core goods, which excludes energy and food, came from pickups in prices for used cars and apparel, despite year-end promotional activity. Services prices also held firm, notably within costs for housing and car insurance, which rose the most on an annual basis since 1976. (…)

Shelter prices, which make up about a third of the overall CPI index and contributed to more than half of its advance, rose 0.5% in December. The gain included a rise in hotel prices that were lower in the prior month. (…)

Excluding housing and energy, services prices climbed 0.4% from November, easing slightly from the prior month, according to Bloomberg calculations. (…)

A separate report Thursday showed real earnings advanced 0.8% in December from a year earlier, extending a months-long streak in which wage growth has modestly outpaced inflation. (…)

More CPI data:

• Core goods: 0.0% MoM after 2 consecutive declines averaging -0.2%.
• Core Services: +0.44%; previous 5 months: +0.42% on average and well above the 0.25% run rate averaged in 2019.
• CPI-Rent: +0.43% after +0.51% in last 5 months on average.

• CPI-Services less rent: +0.6% after +0.3% in October and +0.6% in November.

• 6-m changes annualized from Goldman Sachs:

We should all be pleased! “Changes to Used Cars and Trucks Methodology”

With the release of January 2024 data, the CPI program plans to update the mileage adjustment applied to each sampled used vehicle in the used cars and trucks index. Historically, a single, stable mileage amount estimated for a given make and model was applied to each sampled vehicle and was unchanged throughout the year. The assigned mileage amount will now be replaced with a monthly average mileage amount based on the age of the sampled used vehicle, and not the make and model. Each estimated price for a sampled used vehicle will still be adjusted for depreciation. (BLS)

John Authers: Slower for Longer — Inflation Has Stopped Falling The stall gives the Fed little reason to start early rate cuts, even though the market still expects them.

(…) In the context of expectations of a faster fall, and the dominant narrative that inflation has now been licked, this was a disappointing report. Not disastrous, but certainly not strengthening the case for imminent rate cuts. Rather, it appeared to confirm fears that the “last mile” of disinflation to get back to the Fed’s 2% inflation target was going to be difficult, with the easiest gains now in the past. Tiffany Wilding, economist at Pimco, summed it up as follows:

The deflationary impulse from normalizing supply chains is a tailwind that will eventually fade. Shelter inflation continues to slowly cool, and services ex-shelter inflation remains sticky — supported by still-elevated wage growth. We think this backdrop is likely to mean that disinflation, which was incredibly fast by historical standards in 2023, could be slower and more complicated in 2024.

(…) It’s hard to see how the Fed can start cuts as early as March, with disinflation stalled and inflation still above target. Yet federal funds futures barely moved. They still discount five cuts this year, while the chance of a 25 basis-point cut in March is still put as high as 63%. (…)

If the central bank is really happy to start cutting with inflation still above 2% to avoid overshooting, and if it’s truly in the tank for Joe Biden in an attempt to boost the economy before November’s election, then December’s report needn’t stop them from cutting in March.

This line of argument isn’t dumb, and may well be correct. If so, it suggests a nasty resumed inflation problem for whoever wins the presidency. But it’s startling to see how much confidence has been invested in that narrative.

Tesla Boosts Pay for US Factory Workers That the UAW Wants to Unionize Plant flyer says all US production workers getting increase

All US production associates, material handlers and quality inspectors are getting a “market adjustment pay increase” to kick off the new year, according to a flyer posted at Tesla’s facility in Fremont, California. (…)

Tesla is joining the likes of Toyota Motor Corp., Volkswagen AG and Hyundai Motor Co. in hiking pay at US plants after the UAW secured historic labor contracts last year for workers at Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and Stellantis NV. The union is now parlaying success at the bargaining table into a simultaneous organizing drive targeting Tesla and a dozen other manufacturers, looking to double the number of auto workers in its ranks. (…)

Tesla’s factory in Fremont alone employs more than 20,000 workers. Employees at the plant have formed a UAW organizing committee, and the union has committed to providing whatever resources are necessary for the campaign there, a person familiar with the endeavor said last year. (…)

Deflation Worries Deepen in China With domestic demand weak, fears are growing that China will try to export its way out of trouble, raising trade tensions.

China’s consumer prices fell for a third straight month in December, underscoring the challenges Beijing faces in reviving its economy as deflationary pressures persist.

An index of prices charged by Chinese manufacturers, meanwhile, contracted for a 15th straight month. That is a source of growing concern for U.S. and European officials, as some Chinese business owners look to unload more low-cost goods on the rest of the world, competing with Western brands.       

Chinese leaders have been struggling to reignite domestic demand for months, after a hoped-for rebound in economic activity following the lifting of Covid controls fizzled. Instead, Chinese consumers, spooked by a weak property market and high youth unemployment, are skimping on spending. Factory owners are racing to cut prices as they face weaker sales at home. (…)

The consumer-price index dropped 0.3% last month from a year earlier, narrowing from a 0.5% drop in November, the country’s national statistics bureau said on Friday. The reading, mainly dragged down by oil and food prices, compares to a 0.4% fall expected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

Stripping out volatile energy and food prices, core inflation was 0.6% last month. (…)

For the full calendar year, consumer inflation reached 0.2% in 2023, far below the around 3% target set by Beijing, and confounding predictions by some from a year ago that inflation would surge in China after senior leaders abandoned Covid-19 restrictions in late 2022.

Producer prices, a gauge of wholesale prices charged at factory gates, dropped 2.7% on-year in December, compared with a 3% decline in November. The index has stayed in negative territory for 15 months in a row since October 2022.

Lower oil prices and insufficient demand for some industrial products weighed on producer prices, according to China’s statistics bureau.  (…)

China’s Exports Drop for First Time Since 2016 as Demand Cools

The country sold $3.38 trillion worth of goods to the rest of the world last year, a 4.6% drop from the record a year earlier. Shipments had soared during the pandemic as people stepped up purchases as they worked from home, but demand from Europe, the US and elsewhere faded as interest rates rose.

Full-year imports fell 5.5%, leaving a surplus of $823 billion for the year. (…)

The sustained deflation is dragging down the value of Chinese exports and making them cheaper for foreign consumers. The index of export prices in October hit the lowest in data going back to 2006.

For the month of December, China’s exports in dollar terms rose 2.3% from a year earlier while imports expanded 0.2%, leaving a surplus of $75 billion. The rosier December data was likely helped by more favorable comparisons with a year ago, when shipments tumbled due to the effect of Covid-19 running rampant across the country.

There are some early signs of a rebound in global trade, with South Korean exports rising 5.1% in December and global sales of semiconductors returning to growth in November after falling for more than a year.

• Exports to the US decreased 6.9% in December from a year ago, while shipments to the EU fell 1.9%.
• Sales to regional partners including Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia also declined.
• Shipments to Russia remained strong in December, jumping more than 20% year-on-year.
• Imports from Australia surged almost 25% in December from a year ago as diplomatic ties improved; purchases from Canada slumped 40%.

Chinese Cities Buy Housing With PBOC-Tied Loans, Report Says

Some Chinese cities have started to take advantage of low-cost funds from the central bank to purchase unsold homes and convert them to rental housing, a local media report showed, several months after the policy was introduced to help address the nation’s property crisis.

Major cities including Qingdao and Fuzhou have purchased apartment buildings for the purpose of subsidized rental housing, the Economic Observer reported Thursday, citing unidentified sources. The transactions were done via so-called rental housing loans, the local news outlet said.

The People’s Bank of China set up a specialized monetary tool for this purpose in early 2023, encouraging seven financial institutions to extend loans in eight trial cities, one of a number of initiatives it’s launched. The facility was aimed at bulk purchases of existing homes, which would both reduce the overhang of unsold properties and expand the supply of affordable rental housing.

The PBOC had promised to provide as much as 100 billion yuan ($14 billion) for banks participating in the initiative. No funds was extended under the program as of end-September, the central bank’s latest quarterly data showed, implying it took lenders and cities months before they’re able to utilize the tool. (…)

“Once the experiments are done successfully, the roll-out of the program will gain momentum,” he added.

Some of the cities bought properties from local government financing vehicles — government-backed entities, the Economic Observer said. This method eases local debt risks and reduces excess housing stock at the same time. (…)

The loans extended to cities carry an interest rate as low as 3%, with the underlying funding from the PBOC to the financial institutions set at a rate of 1.75%. They also have long maturities and so can be rolled over in an extended period of time as long as cities are able to pay the interest with the rental income generated, the newspaper said, citing unnamed local officials. (…)

As Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott says just before the snap: “Here we go!”. Finally a concrete measure to begin to really address China’s real estate problem. A Chinese version of the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program: the central bank provides low cost funds to cities to purchase vacant apartment buildings from troubled developers or, even better, from troubled LGFVs, thereby transferring bad debt up to the PBOC.

The PBOC should provide an update on the use of its tools later this month, potentially confirming that banks have tapped the funds for the rental program. Look for the $14B program to repeatedly be extended.

Global minimum tax will put the squeeze on investors’ returns

The FT reports that “new international tax rules will restrict the scope to profit from arbitrage and curb a race to the bottom in corporate tax rates” and that “once fully bedded in, the new 15 per cent minimum tax is expected to force multinationals to pay between 6.5 per cent and 8.1 per cent more tax, according to the OECD.”

  Record number of guns were discovered at airport checkpoints in 2023

A record 6,737 guns were discovered at airport security checkpoints in 2023. About 93% (!) of the weapons were loaded, Axios’ Ivana Saric reports from a TSA announcement. 2023 was the third consecutive year a record was set.