Economy Showed Signs of Cooling Last Month Weekly filings for jobless claims rose to highest level since 2021 and supplier inflation moderated in April

• The producer-price index, which generally reflects supply conditions across the economy, increased 2.3% in April from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday. That marked the slowest pace since January 2021 and an easing from March’s 2.7% rise. Producer prices rose 0.2% in April from the prior month, compared with a revised decline of 0.4% in March. The Labor Department attributed most of last month’s increase to higher supplier services prices. April’s increase matched a 0.2% average monthly rise in the two years before the pandemic.

Core PPI-Final Demand is up only 2.0% a.r. in the last 3 months after +4.8% in the previous 3 months. Core Goods: +2.9% vs +4.0%. PPI Services: +2.0% vs +2.4%. Inflation within the pipeline is also slower.

PPI-Final demand, only available since 2011, has been tightly correlated with CPI, suggesting a CPI reading below 3% coming our way!

Not so tight on core indices (e.g. 2015-17) but the downward pull is there:

The downward pull is as interesting when only looking at services inflation: the largest gap since 2011 was 2%. It’s now 3.8%.

A 2% gap by September would mean +0.2% average monthly gains in CPI Services in coming months. It was +0.25% in April, nearly half is previous 3 months +0.47% average advance. Note that PPI data can be revised.

Wages have not slowed much yet but PPI Services has eased without help from wages before (e.g. 2015, 2019)

Recall that April’s Supercore Services CPI (ex-energy services and rent) was up a low 0.1%.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Supercore inflation was dragged down by negative prints in medical care and transportation. PPI transportation and warehousing was down 1.7% in April and is -11.1% annualized YtD.

• Worker filings for unemployment benefits rose by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 264,000 last week, the highest level since October 2021, according to a separate Labor Department report. Jobless claims totals are above prepandemic levels, but still historically low.

The dashed line indicates the level on claims before the pandemic.

FYI, bond traders are heavily on the bearish side. David Rosenberg says that “The only time historically when the bearish bet from the Commitments of Traders report was so one-sided was back on September 25th, 2018”.

Again FYI, CPI YoY vs 10Y Ts, understanding that CPI data comes in about one month late.

Fed Official Signals Support for Further Rate Increases Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman says there hasn’t been sufficient evidence of a labor market or inflation slowdown.

(…) At the Fed’s meeting in March, most officials projected holding rates steady after the latest increase, in part because they expect banking-system stresses following the failures of three midsize lenders this year to further tighten financial conditions.

But a substantial minority of Fed officials expected rates would need to rise by a further quarter point from current levels if the economy performed in line with their expectations.

Ms. Bowman’s remarks suggested she was part of that group favoring higher rates. “Should inflation remain high and the labor market remain tight, additional monetary policy tightening will likely be appropriate to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance of monetary policy to lower inflation over time,” she said in her remarks in Germany.

Ms. Bowman said she would be looking for “consistent evidence that inflation is on a downward path” to determine whether interest rates were at a sufficiently restrictive level. The most recent readings on inflation and employment released over the past week, she added, “have not provided consistent evidence that inflation is on a downward path.”

Ms. Bowman said she expected banks to continue tightening lending standards as they face higher funding costs and fewer sources of funding following the recent banking failures. She said recent stock-price declines for other regional banks were adding to that uncertainty. (…)

Investors in interest-rate futures markets in recent days have seen a relatively low probability—around 10% on Thursday—of an interest-rate increase next month, according to CME Group. (…)

• Fed’s Kashkari says tight monetary policy may be needed for ‘extended’ time

An extended period of high interest rates and an inverted yield curve could put more stress on banks, but would be necessary if inflation stays stubbornly high, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday.

There is some evidence high inflation “is coming down, but so far it’s been pretty darn persistent – that means we are going to have to keep at it for an extended period of time,” Kashkari said during an event at Northern Michigan University in Marquette, Michigan. (…)

But he did not sound very convinced, noting that inflation has surprised policymakers with its persistence, and that the data push him toward the “hawkish” side of the Fed policy spectrum. (…)

Deposit outflows after SVB collapse concentrated among ‘super-regionals’ – NY Fed study

Deposit withdrawals from U.S. banks following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank were concentrated in around 30 “super-regional” institutions in the $50 billion to $250 billion range, similar to SVB, New York Fed researchers concluded in a newly released study.

Deposits among thousands of “community and smaller regional banks… were relatively stable by comparison” during March, the researchers found, with the largest, systemically important firms receiving the deposits that left the super-regional group.

(…) the NY Fed study points to what Fed officials themselves seemed to conclude early on – that the problems were focused in a discrete set of institutions. (…)

But even banks up to $100 billion in size “were relatively unaffected,” with the smallest institutions seeing virtually no change in deposits after the events of mid-March. Smaller firms tend to have higher levels of their deposits insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (…)

Evidence of a festering crisis, however, seems to have diminished. Emergency borrowing from Fed facilities has declined, and the study concludes that much of it was “precautionary.” (…)

• PacWest Stock Sinks 23% After Disclosing Fresh Outflow Bank says in securities filing it lost 9.5% of its total deposits last week

(…) Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Thursday said that small banks have shouldered interest-rate increases and the recent market mayhem quite well. (…)

Western Alliance, another bank whose stock has been hammered hard since March, fell about 1%. The bank said total deposits were $49.4 billion as of Tuesday, up $600 million from a week earlier. (…)

• Bond Selloff Adds to the Pressure on Regional Banks Rising yields on debt threaten higher borrowing costs for lenders

The extra yield, or spread, on regional-bank bonds over U.S. Treasurys has risen in many cases by about 2 percentage points or more since early March, when the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank spurred a broad investor retreat from all but the largest U.S. banks. (…)

Oil Holds Two-Day Drop as Demand Concerns Offset SPR Refill Plan

(…) Crude has retreated by about 15% over the past month as the US economy moved closer to recession and China’s rebound continued to disappoint, threatening energy demand. That’s outweighed the lift from supply cuts announced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. (…)

On Thursday, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told lawmakers the US hopes to start refilling the nation’s strategic reserves after a congressionally-mandated drawdown ends next month. Earlier this week, the administration said it planned to begin purchasing oil for the SPR after finishing maintenance.

Why the April Inflation Report Reinforces the Fed’s Plans to Pause Summer break appears likely as officials monitor effects of banking stress

Nick Timiraos has the Fed on pause:

(…) because it [the CPI report] showed price pressures aren’t worsening and might soon be slowing as muted growth in rental-housing costs feed through to official inflation gauges.

More important, Fed officials have focused more on the impact of recent banking-system strains, which will take time to slow economic activity, including hiring and inflation.

To be sure, inflation isn’t showing the kind of convincing slowdown that would quell central bankers’ anxieties about it running at more than double their 2% target.

But Fed Chair Jerome Powell said six months ago that, on their way to raising rates rapidly to a 16-year high, officials didn’t necessarily view a string of slower inflation readings as a prerequisite for a pause.

“We do need to see inflation coming down decisively, and good evidence of that would be a series of down monthly readings…But I’ve never thought of that as the appropriate test for…identifying the appropriately restrictive level that we’re aiming for,” he said at a news conference last November. (…)

Wednesday’s report showed inflation was 4.9% in April, down from a recent peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is seen as a better predictor of future inflation, was 5.5% in April, down from its recent 6.6% peak in September.

The Fed has hinted that at key turning points, however, the individual data releases aren’t as useful in determining what it will do at its next meeting. (…)

“We feel like we’re getting closer or maybe even there,” he said.

The Fed has hinted at greater caution in moving rates up because of the lagged impact of stresses in the banking system that resulted from the sudden failure of Silicon Valley Bank in mid-March, which contributed to the collapse of Signature Bank and First Republic Bank. Those strains are expected to tighten lending standards for a swath of the banking industry that serves many small and midsize businesses and real-estate owners.

Put differently, the Fed thinks it has a reasonable understanding of how interest-rate increases slow down the economy, but it doesn’t have the same comfort in forecasting a potentially sharper, bank-lending-induced slowdown. “It does complicate” matters, Mr. Powell said. “Credit tightening is a different thing.”

There were several other notable examples in how Mr. Powell hinted at the outlook last week:

• When discussing how Fed officials had stopped telegraphing future rate increases in their post meeting statement, Mr. Powell volunteered that this was “a meaningful change.”
• While some Fed officials have pointed to the so-called “separation principle” in which the Fed uses tighter monetary policy to combat inflation and emergency lending programs to address bank stress, Mr. Powell allowed that this approach “ultimately…has its limits.”
• Finally, Mr. Powell noted officials had raised rates by 5 percentage points, which he said gave them the luxury of waiting to see if they had done enough. “You’re going to want to see that a few months of data will persuade you that you’ve got this right,” he said. Then, Mr. Powell offered his view that “policy is tight.”

Those hints might have been subtle, but they were reinforced Tuesday when New York Fed President John Williams spoke at the Economic Club of New York. Each time Mr. Williams was asked whether the Fed had decided to pause, he demurred—but then offered up reasons that the Fed could, in fact, consider a pause.

While the Fed hadn’t decided on a pause, Mr. Williams allowed that “we’ve made incredible progress over the last year or so” in raising rates.

Instead of pointing to the importance of fresh data in determining the Fed’s next moves, he stressed the harder-to-quantify and even-more-lagged effect of tighter lending conditions. “Clearly it’s going to have an impact,” he said.

All of this adds up to a likely Fed summer vacation from raising rates at their June and possibly July meetings before deciding this September whether they have done enough to slow down the economy.

By then, officials could have a better understanding about how much trouble the banks face and whether the fallout will do enough—or even too much—to achieve the controlled slowdown of the economy and labor market that the Fed has been seeking.

So long data dependency.

A pause would be smart given what’s been done so far but the April CPI provided little comfort that the job is done.

• core CPI is stuck at 0.4-0.5% monthly increases since last December;
• core goods inflation has turned back up with +0.6% in April after 0.2% in March;
• core services came in unchanged at +0.4% after 0.6% in February;
• rent is showing no inclination to behave “as widely expected”: +0.6% in April after 0.5% and 0.8%;
• “All items less food, shelter, and energy” went from +0.2% in February to +0.3% in March and +0.4% in April;

True, used cars jumped 4.4% in April after 6 monthly declines and if you exclude them (2.6% CPI weight), “All items less food, shelter, energy, and used cars and trucks” inflation was only 0.2%, a nice number after +0.4% and +0.3% in the previous 2 months. Such micro analysis got most people and the whole FOMC in trouble in recent years, didn’t it?

If used car prices jumped as much may be because demand was strong.

The Cleveland Fed measures of median and trimmed-mean CPI are showing stability at a still uncomfortably high level.

BTW, the Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcast for May is at +0.45% mid-month (core PCE at +0.38% vs +0.36% in April).

As to rent, which everybody see slowing enough to bring overall inflation below 3%, April’s +0.5% was a bummer:

Tuesday, Tricon Residential (36k single-family homes in the U.S. Sun Belt) updated investors with rent data through April 23 showing renewal rents up a steady 6.5% YoY compared with ~5% pre-pandemic. Tricon said that its demand indicators have been strong this year and even better in April. (CPI-rent is up 8.8% YoY in April reflecting the lags in the BLS data)

True, “super-core CPI” (core services ex-rent and OER) was only +0.11% in April vs its prior three-month average +0.42%. But such super-micro analysis can be myopic. Should we also exclude airfares which dropped 2.6% in April after rising 4.0% in March.

Importantly, energy has been very cooperative in the past 6 months but that may not last forever. Energy costs are high up there with wages for service providers. This chart shows the very tight correlation between wages and services inflation. Service providers are still in a catch up mode on both wages and energy.

When Mr. Powell says ““We feel like we’re getting closer or maybe even there”, beware of feelings, heed the data.

On the now widely expected credit crunch, the bi-weekly data of loans and leases trough May 3rd suggest there is no secondary wave to the SVB earthquake so far, even among small banks:

Deposits are still moving out of the banking system but post SVB trends are no worse than pre SVB:

Here’s Goldman’s rendition of the 6-m annualized rates:

Microsoft Freezes Salaries to Navigate Economic Uncertainty Yet another tech company is tightening its belt.

A Record Number of Canadians Are Trying to Restructure Their Debts

Consumer proposals, or alternative arrangements to settle debts with creditors, rose 36% from a year earlier, according to data released Wednesday by the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada. That brings the monthly total to 9,337, the most since at least 2011.

Total insolvencies, which also include bankruptcies, jumped to 11,768, the highest since the end of 2019. While that’s in part a rebound from near historically low levels, the jump may add to evidence that restrictive borrowing costs are starting to weigh on Canadian households as debt payments eat up a greater proportion of incomes. (…)

It’s also possible the larger share of proposals stays elevated relative to bankruptcies this time around. Canadian financial institutions are increasingly working with clients to renegotiate loan agreements, including extending amortization periods.

BoE raises key interest rate to 4.5% and forecasts higher inflation

China’s Weak Inflation, Borrowing Show Economic Recovery Waning

Consumer inflation weakened to a two-year low of 0.1% in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday, as food and energy costs eased. The figures were partly affected by the low base of comparison from last year. Producer prices fell 3.6%, largely due to lower commodity costs.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, was unchanged at 0.7%, suggesting there’s very little demand-driven inflation in the economy. Food inflation weakened to 0.4% in April from 2.4% in March.

@C_Barraud

Separately, data from the People’s Bank of China showed credit and new loans were much worse than expected in April as consumers and businesses curbed their borrowing.

“China’s credit data came in well below estimates, reinforcing the concerns over the sustainability of post-Covid recovery,” said Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd. Overall growth momentum “has been slowing significantly,” he said. (…)

SoftBank Vision funds post record $39bn annual loss Tech conglomerate in ‘defence mode’ as it halts new investments and sells down Alibaba stake