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It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so (Mark Twain)

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THE DAILY EDGE: 7 JULY 2021

U.S. Services PMI: Strong business activity growth rounds off best quarter in PMI survey history

June PMI™ data indicated a further marked upturn in business activity across the U.S. service sector, supported by a substantial rise in client demand. Business confidence in the outlook also improved to the second-highest in seven years. Rates of output and new order growth eased from May’s record highs, however, and capacity constraints meant backlogs of work grew at the quickest rate for ten months. Although firms continued to hire new workers, challenges finding suitable candidates weighed on the pace of job creation.

Meanwhile, input prices increased at the second-fastest rate on record as supplier price hikes and greater wage bills pushed up cost burdens. Nonetheless, accommodative demand conditions allowed firms to partially pass on higher costs to clients.

The seasonally adjusted final IHS Markit US Services PMI Business Activity Index registered 64.6 in June, down from 70.4 in May and slightly below the earlier released ‘flash’ estimate of 64.8. The latest expansion in output was the third-fastest since data collection began in October 2009, only slower than recent upturns in May and April, respectively.

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Contributing to the robust rise in activity across the service sector was a further marked increase in new business at the end of the second quarter. Alongside strong customer demand, firms attributed the upturn in new sales to the acquisition of new clients. Although the rate of new business growth slipped to a three-month low, it was still the third-fastest on record.

Mirroring the trend for total sales, new export orders rose at a strong pace that was only slightly slower than May’s recent peak and among the steepest in the history of the survey. The fourth successive monthly expansion in foreign client demand was linked by companies to the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in key export markets.

At the same time, service providers registered the second-steepest rise in input costs on record in June. Although the rate of input price inflation eased from May’s recent high, firms continued to highlight rising supplier, fuel and wage costs.

Service sector firms were able to partially pass on higher cost burdens to clients, however, as output charges increased at the second-steepest rate on record, albeit with the rate of inflation cooling from May’s peak.

Greater new order inflows placed greater pressure on output capacity during June, as the level of outstanding business expanded at the sharpest rate for ten months. Labour shortages reportedly exacerbated strains meeting demand following sustained and robust increases in new sales. The rate of job creation was strong overall, but softened amid challenges enticing workers back to employment.

Finally, business expectations regarding the outlook for output over the coming year improved at the end of the second quarter. The degree of optimism strengthened to the highest since November 2020, as firms gained confidence following a more extensive reopening of the economy and expressed hopes of further boosts to client demand. Survey respondents also cited a reduction in concerns over inflation.

The IHS Markit U.S. Composite PMI Output Index posted 63.7 in June, down from May’s recent high of 68.7. The overall upturn eased following slower output expansions across both the manufacturing and service sectors. Nonetheless, the rate of growth in activity was substantial and the second-fastest on record.

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Contributing to the softer upturn in output was a slight moderation in the rate of new business growth during June. With the exception of April and May data, the latest pace of expansion was the sharpest since data collection for the series began in October 2009. Similarly, the rate of increase in new export orders was historically elevated despite softening to a three-month low.

At the same time, cost pressures remained marked in June. Further raw material shortages and hikes in supplier and fuel costs reportedly pushed input prices higher, according to panellists. The rate of cost inflation was the second-quickest on record. Firms passed on greater costs to clients via the second-sharpest increase in average selling prices for goods and services since data collection began in 2009.

Challenges hiring new employees persisted in June, causing the rate of job creation to ease in the manufacturing and service sectors. Labour and material shortages reportedly resulted in greater strains on output capacity, as private sector backlogs of work rose at the quickest rate on record.

“TRANSITORY” WATCH:
  • What respondents in the ISM Services PMI are saying:
    • “Our restaurants are quickly — maybe too quickly — returning to 2019 sales levels. Strong consumer demand for dining out is clearly evident as COVID-19 restrictions ease, but the challenges are supply chain outages, logistics delays and employee- and management-staffing constraints. Some locations cannot open for business or (have) limited hours, as we cannot staff the restaurant to meet consumer demand.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
    • “Severe supply chain disruptions and inflation are continuing in the marketplace, in all sectors.” [Arts, Entertainment & Recreation]
    • “COVID-19 continues to cause troubles for all of our deliveries, as well as short supply a lot of materials. (Shortages of) lumber, copper, and steel continue, which is driving up pricing and lead times.” [Construction]
    • “The declining positive test rates for COVID-19 is already having a significant impact, as virtually all aspects of our operations are picking up rapidly. The summer is normally the slow period, as limited teaching is taking place, but this year, preparations for the fall semester are already underway.” [Educational Services]
    • “New business is actively trending up locally, nationally and internationally.” [Finance & Insurance]
    • “Employees globally are returning to the office where possible. We expect to have most employees in the office starting in September.” [Information]
    • “Business conditions continue to rebound; however, like everywhere, the challenges in the supply chain are numerous. We continue to see cost increases, delayed shipments, pushed-out lead times, and no clarity as to when predictive balance returns to this market.” [Retail Trade]
    • “Labor market remains tight, and wages have risen at an unprecedented rate. We are expecting a long-term effect on pricing of services.” [Transportation & Warehousing]
    • “Overall business activity in the month has been strong. We are seeing increased orders and slight improvements in backlogs. The primary headwinds this month continue to be very expensive ocean freight rates, increasing business costs and increasing raw-materials costs. The top line is not outrunning expenses.” [Wholesale Trade]
    • Starting to see a lot of commodity-price increases for chemicals, acidizing and cementing. This is driven by product cost increases stemming from low production from plants.” [Mining]
  • Commodities Up in Price: Beef (2); Chicken (2); Construction Materials (4); Copper Wire (3); Diesel (7); Electrical Components (5); Engineered Wood Products; Food (2); Freight (2); Fuel (6); Gasoline (7); Insulation; Labor (7); Labor —Temporary (6); Lobster Tails; Lodging; Lumber (6); Metal Products (2); Natural Gas; Oriented Strand Board (OSB) (7); Packaging Materials (2); Pallets (2); Paper; Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)*; Plastic; Plastic Products (2); Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Products (10); Pork Products; Poultry; Stainless Steel Products; Steel (10); Steel Products (6); Tires; and Wood Pallets.
  • Commodities Down in Price: Exam Gloves; Gloves; Masks; Nitrile Gloves; and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)*.
  • Commodities in Short Supply: Chicken (2); Chlorine; Computer Hardware (2); Electrical Components (3); Electronic Components (3); Gloves (7); Labor (2); Labor — Contingent; Labor — Temporary (6); Lumber (3); Lumber Products (2); Needles and Syringes (7); Nitrile Gloves (13); Pipette (4); Plastic Products; Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC); Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Products (5); Resin-Based Products (2); Steel Products (7); Vehicles (2); and Wood.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. *Indicates those commodities reported both up and down in price.

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  • Rising rents may not be transitory. The median U.S. rent climbed 9.2% in the first half, and surveys suggest renters are bracing for even more hikes. The run-up complicates the Fed’s view—shared by most investors—that the current spike in inflation will prove impermanent because higher rents are harder to reverse than prices for things like lumber and used cars. That’s not the kind of post-pandemic bump most renters were looking for. (Bloomberg)

Meanwhile, consumers seemed to keep spending through June…

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Pointing up …but mainly on services as demand for goods took a June dive:

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Outlook for U.S. Grains Market Grows Tighter Agricultural prices now hinge on summer weather in growing areas, as U.S. supplies leave tight margin of error for any supply hiccups.

(…) Heading into the hottest days of the summer, above-average temperatures and dry conditions in the forecast may roil crop production in areas already in the grips of a drought. The volatility in agricultural futures is linked to the uncertainty that growing regions will get the rain they need. (…)

Swaths of Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin and the Dakotas are experiencing droughts, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. According to USDA data monitoring crop health, the dryness is particularly hurting wheat and soybean crops in those areas. (…)

Meanwhile, the USDA also reported that U.S. grains inventories are down to their lowest levels since 2015. Robust demand for U.S. grains on the world export markets means inventories are dwindling faster than predicted.

Potentially exacerbating a supply squeeze due to weather is how much U.S. grain exports China buys. The nation has been hands-off in recent weeks, leading some to question if it will cut its appetite for U.S. agriculture as it rebuilds its hog herd after devastation from African swine fever.

However, in separate reports issued last week, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said that China imported $7.7 billion of U.S. soybeans in the first quarter of 2021, the second-highest on record for the quarter. The FAS also forecast that China will remain strong importers of U.S. grains as higher domestic prices there make importing attractive. (…)

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Toronto Home Sales Hit Lowest Point in a Year

Home sales in Canada’s largest city fell 9.1% in June from the month before to 8,885 transactions, the third consecutive monthly decline, according to data released Tuesday by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. Despite the declining number of sales the seasonally adjusted average price of a home remained virtually unchanged last month at C$1.06 million ($859,890), the data show. (…)

Vancouver, Canada’s priciest home market, showed a similar decline in June home sales from the previous month, though activity both there and in Toronto remains above where it was a year ago and elevated by historical standards. Toronto’s record start to the year caused that city’s real estate board to raise its forecast for average home prices in 2021 to C$1.07 million from the C$1.025 million it predicted in February. (…)

Also in Toronto, in a reversal of the pattern seen for much of the last year, annual growth in condominium sales in June outpaced the sales growth for all types of ground-based homes, suggesting interest may be returning for the denser housing types the pandemic put out of favor, but are often the first choice of immigrants newly arrived to the country. (…)

EARNINGS WATCH

As we move into earnings season, companies are pretty bullish—even historically so. According to FactSet, the number of S&P 500 companies that have guided higher on earnings growth and EPS estimates is at a 12-year and 15-year high, respectively. Big beats on revenues, too, are widely expected.
The chart below, furnished by FactSet, gives a snapshot of that bullishness. (…)

“Analysts have not only increased EPS estimates for the second quarter, but also for the full year,” John Butters, FactSet senior equity analyst, writes in a July 2 research note. “The CY 2021 bottom-up EPS estimate… increased by 8.6% (to $191.31 from $176.13) during the second quarter (from March 31 to June 30). This increase marked the largest increase in the annual bottom-up EPS estimate for the index during the calendar second quarter since FactSet began tracking the annual bottom-up EPS estimate in 1996.” (Fortune)

COVID-19

(…) Two Americas have emerged from the growing vaccination gap. In one, dominated by states that Biden won in the November election, most adults got their shots and daily life is rapidly returning to normal, with assurances from health officials that the worst is over. But in the other — overwhelmingly Trump country — fewer adults are vaccinated and health officials fear that the new, more transmissible delta variant, first observed in India, is driving a surge of cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

(…) a Gallup poll last week found that 57% of Republicans say the pandemic is over, compared with 4% of Democrats. (…)

The following charts are from Longview Economics Ltd. of London, [via John Authers] and compare cases and deaths in the delta outbreak with those during the wave that forced a closedown last fall:

relates to Who Killed the Recovery Trade? Take Your Pickrelates to Who Killed the Recovery Trade? Take Your Pick

The conclusion so far is that vaccination is doing what it’s supposed to. By immunizing those most vulnerable first, the British authorities seem to have ensured that this outbreak would largely only infect those most able to withstand it. So it is hard to see why this should be taken as such a major reason to doubt reopening and reflation. There is, potentially, reason from the British experience to fear what might happen if the delta variant reaches communities where the elderly largely haven’t been vaccinated, as is still the case in some American states. But for now that threat is largely hypothetical.

  • British Airways and Virgin Atlantic are to trial fast-track lanes for fully-vaccinated passengers arriving at London’s Heathrow airport. The British government wants to stop requiring fully-vaccinated travelers to isolate when arriving from an “amber list” country such as the U.S. or Germany. BBC
Bitcoin Fraud Concerns Draw Scrutiny From Regulators Cryptocurrencies didn’t get much attention in Washington until recently. Now regulators are signaling they want more control over an asset that has pushed further into Wall Street activities without investor and consumer protections.
China Takes Didi Investors for a Ride American shareholders get an expensive lesson in Xi Jinping risk.

(…) Most of this counts as business as usual in China, as investors should have known. Didi’s prospectus disclosed that executives from Didi and at least 30 other internet companies in April were hauled in for a meeting with Beijing regulators, where they were told to conduct “self-inspections” for compliance with antitrust, tax and other laws. The company warned it could only assume its self-criticism, er, inspection had been sufficient.

Beijing’s habitual regulatory ambiguity might also explain why Didi pushed ahead with its offer even after regulators “suggested” it delay. The company decided to list absent a formal prohibition from Beijing, the Journal reports. Asking for forgiveness rather than permission often pays off in China’s vague, wink-and-nudge legal climate. As Didi noted elsewhere in its prospectus, the legality of most overseas listings of Chinese tech companies is an open question under Chinese laws that technically bar foreign ownership. Those listings have gone ahead anyway, and profitably so.

Didi’s plight reminds investors that what Beijing gives, it can easily take away—which is one of the risks for which bigger returns are supposed to compensate. This follows Beijing’s scuttling last year of what would have been a blockbuster initial public offer by Jack Ma’s Ant Financial in Shanghai and Hong Kong, apparently because Mr. Ma made the mistake of criticizing regulators in a speech.

President Xi Jinping is consolidating state control over the economy, so American investors in Chinese firms can expect more regulatory disruption. Those capital gains will come with capital political risks.

The Pizza Delivery Guy Will Be a Robot at Many Campuses This Fall

THE DAILY EDGE: 6 JULY 2021: Technical warning!

U.S. Jobs Market Heats Up After Springtime Lull The 850,000 jobs gained in June were the most in 10 months, and workers’ wages rose briskly as the labor market heated up. The jobless rate rose to 5.9%, in part because the number of job seekers grew.

(…) A modest number of Americans came off the sidelines and entered the job search, expanding the labor pool. A broader measure of unemployment that takes into account workers stuck in part-time jobs and those too discouraged to look for work fell sharply last month. (…)

Hourly wages among private-sector workers rose 3.6% from a year earlier. (…)

The number of workers who said they were prevented from looking for work because of the pandemic fell by 900,000 in June to 1.6 million. (…)

There are still 6.8 million fewer jobs than in February 2020. The jobless rate remains above its pre-pandemic level of 3.5%. And while the labor force grew last month, the gain was modest.

The share of adults working or looking for work was flat in June, remaining at 61.6%—1.7 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level—even though participation among prime-age workers, or those between 25 and 54 years old, rose from a month earlier. (…)

Nearly 1 in 4 jobs created last month were at restaurants and bars. Hourly wages for restaurant and other hospitality workers were up 7.9% in June from their pre-pandemic level. (…)

Compared with February 2020—the month before the pandemic plunged the U.S. into a recession—average hourly earnings among private-sector workers are up 6.6%. That is well above inflation, which rose 3.8% in May from the year before, according to the Labor Department’s consumer-price index. (…)

Aggregate Weekly Payrolls (employment x hours x wages) rose 0.6% MoM, on pace with May. Payrolls are now 2.8% above their pre-pandemic level even with total employment 4.4% lower. Weekly Payrolls per private employee are up 8.5% from February 2020. Inflation-adjusted private workers’ weekly earnings are up 4.7% in the last 16 months, +3.5% annualized.

fredgraph - 2021-07-03T053607.105

That said, as NBF reports:

The June employment report was rather mixed. While establishment data came in stronger than expected, the household survey showed a decline in jobs. When combined, these reports hinted at a slow recovery in the job market in a context of economic reopening. As has been the case for several months now, the sectors that had been most affected by social distancing measures – notably leisure/hospitality and education/health – registered strong gains as COVID-19 caseloads continued to ease and several states gradually removed pandemic-related restrictions.

Hiring outside of these segments remain relatively tepid, especially if we exclude public sector employment. Since the measures put forward to stem the spread of the virus tend to affect part-time employment disproportionately, the improvement in the health situation in June had the opposite effect. Part time positions surged, while full-time employment took a step back (-183K). As today’s Hot Chart shows, full-time jobs have been flat for the past three months and remain 5 million below their pre-pandemic peak.0ee5dd7c-f844-43f5-ba1b-9f656ad2c627@bluematrix

Part-time jobs are principally services-producing jobs, currently clearly benefitting from the re-opening of the economy. The surprise is that the strong Goods side of the economy is not creating more jobs. Actually, employment at Goods-Producers is unchanged since March and remains 3.7% below its pre-pandemic level even though real consumer expenditures on Goods is 16% above its February 2020 level.

The fact is that most goods Americans consume are imported.

The other fact is that production of light vehicles (78% of 2019 sales were made in the USA) is down 6.8% from January 2021 as domestic manufacturers can’t get enough semiconductors. The WSJ reports that dealer inventories are down 42% YoY in June and that shipments of cars and auto parts on U.S. railroads were off nearly 71,000 carloads, or 21.3%, from the same period in 2019. Also from the WSJ:

Ford Motor Co. said the computer-chip shortage will force it to cut output across more than a half-dozen U.S. factories in July, a sign that the supply-chain troubles could take longer to ease than auto-industry executives previously believed.

Ford said Wednesday that its pickup truck factories in Michigan, Kentucky and Missouri will reduce or stop production for much of July, while an Explorer plant in Chicago will be idled for the entire month. Production of several other popular models also will be reduced or scrapped, including the Escape SUV and Mustang sports car. (…)

Ford has been forced to scrap production of more than 350,000 vehicles that it had planned to build this year through May, compared with about 250,000 vehicles for General Motors Co., according to research firm LMC Automotive.

Strangely, imports shares of both cars and light trucks sales are up big time since 2019. U.S. manufacturers are suffering from their panicked orders cancellations in 2020 as they misjudged demand.

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In effect, the great American pandemic splurge on goods is greatly benefitting importers, distributors and retailers, but American manufacturers not so much.

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Manufacturers’ New Orders are booming but production is lagging due to “transitory” shortages of various materials and parts. Meanwhile, producers are finding ways to improve productivity. Manufacturing production is back to its pre-pandemic level but not employment (-3.8%) nor hours (-1.2%).

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With 6 million of the 6.7 million jobs still missing from February 2020 being services-producing jobs, the return to pre-pandemic employment levels could take a while, particularly if service providers find more ways to boost productivity. While not a perfect measure, real expenditures on services typically rises faster than services employment, particularly during recessions. Post the 2008-09 recession, it took 3.5 years before services employment reclaimed its pre-recession peak as apparent productivity rose 6%.

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Hence:

  • Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said Friday that at the current pace of job growth, averaged over the past three months, U.S. employment could regain its pre-crisis level by the end of next year. She said that the U.S. central bank may be able to start reducing “a little bit” of its extraordinary support for the U.S. economy by the end of this year or early next year.

Miss Daly assumes that everybody want their job back but the supply of workers offers its own challenges.

In its quest for a return to pre-pandemic employment, the FOMC gets little help from the participation rate among the 55+ cohort, stuck at 38.4% from 40.3% in February 2020. The Dallas Fed calculates that 2.6 million workers have retired since February 2020, 1.7 million earlier than expcted.

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Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios

For example, the California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS) in February reported that it experienced a steep 26% jump in retirements in the second half of 2020 from the same time a year before. A subsequent survey revealed that about 62% of retirees said they retired earlier than they planned. More than half said the challenges of teaching during the pandemic pushed them to seek an early out.

Participation among the youngest group, 16-19 years, which had been rising until April, declined 2 full percentage points in the last 2 months and is now 35.4% from 36.2% pre-pandemic.

Maybe that will help:

Jefferies LLC Chief Economist Aneta Markowska found that claims declined 2.7% from the week earlier in states that ended enhanced benefits early and rose 2.8% elsewhere. “Since mid-May, claims are down 12.6% in early expiration states and just 3.4% in September expiration states, so the gap continues to widen,” Markowska wrote in an email Friday. (Bloomberg)

But with the current divergence between labor demand and supply:

  • Average hourly earnings in the private sector have jumped at a 5.7% annualized rate since March.
  • Earnings in the Leisure & Hospitality sector jumped 1.0% in June, the fourth month of strong increase. Information sector earnings rose 0.5% while education & health sector earnings gained 0.3%. Factory sector pay improved 0.4% after two straight months of 0.6% increase. Construction sector earnings gained 0.3%. (Haver Analytics)
  • Record Shares of U.S. Small Firms Report Hiring Plans, More Pay Some 28% of firms last month said the planned to hire in the next three months, while 39% of owners reported raising worker pay, the NFIB said Thursday. Those were the largest shares in monthly data back to 1986.

U.S. small company hiring plans, compensation measure increase to record highs

(…) Executives say the model they built their businesses on—luring riders with deep discounts and then incentivizing drivers to provide those rides—can’t be the model that sustains them.

“This is a moment of deep introspection and reflection for a company like ours to pause and say, ‘How do we make the proposition for drivers more attractive longer term?” said Carrol Chang, Uber’s chief of driver operations for the U.S. and Canada. “It is absolutely a reckoning,” she said. (…)

Uber fares in the U.S. increased 27% between January and May, Chief Executive Dara Khosrowshahi tweeted last month. Over the same period, he said, driver pay per trip increased 37%. He didn’t say whether the ongoing driver incentives drove the uptick.

Gridwise Inc., which tracks Uber and Lyft prices, estimates that second-quarter fares in the U.S. were up 79% from the second quarter of 2019, before the pandemic. (…)

  • Citigroup became the latest bank to lift base salaries to $100,000 for its junior bankers, following comparable moves by Barclays, JPMorgan and Guggenheim. The raises range from $15,000 to $25,000. The salary bumps may force other banks to follow suit—or risk losing out on top recruits. “There’s a lot of competition for the best people,” said compensation consultant Alan Johnson. “I think everyone is going to be moving to $100,000 now.” (Bloomberg)

The pandemic caused much confusion in the measurement of wage growth but there is now enough evidence that, facing a worker shortage amid booming revenues, business people are willing to crank wages up, confident of their pricing power and that strong revenues will protect profit margins. One year after the initial statistical jump, average wage growth remains well above pre-pandemic trends. From February 2020 levels, average private wages are up at a 5.0% annualized rate but business sales are up at an 11.1% a.r. to April.

This is from Axios:

All major industries are pacing above 3% — even higher-wage areas like information, financial, professional and business services.

  • Morgan Stanley economist Robert Roesner notes that higher-wage industries have also struggled with record job openings and unusually high quit rates.
  • “The wage data is starting to show a transition from more idiosyncratic pressures to more broadly based and potentially more persistent pressures,” Roesner writes.

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Data: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities; Chart: Axios Visuals

Importantly looking forward, private service-providing wages are now rising faster than total wages, up 5.7% a.r. since February 2020 and up 6.6% a.r. in Q2’21.

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S&P 500 companies’ revenues were up 13.5% in Q1 and are forecast to grow 18.5% in Q2 (the 18 companies having already reported Q2 results saw revenues up 24.7%). However, there is a base effect there too and growth will slow, challenging margins if costs pressures continue unabated into 2022.

Analysts keep raising the stakes…

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…encouraged by corporate officers who are increasingly comfortable with business trends to offer guidance and, so far, a lower proportion of companies are reducing guidance than during Q1.

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To be closely monitored.

COMPOSITE PMIs

The eurozone private sector economy expanded at its fastest rate for 15 years during June, underpinned by surging levels of output across both manufacturing and service sectors.

After accounting for seasonal factors, the IHS Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index recorded a reading of 59.5, up from 57.1 in May. June marked not only the fourth successive month that the index has posted above the 50.0 no-change mark, but the highest index level since June 2006.

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The latest strengthening of the index reflected a marginal improvement in growth of manufacturing output (and to a rate that was close to March’s survey record) as well as an improvement in service sector expansion to its best since mid-2007.

imageIreland registered the fastest rate of output growth, even though it edged down slightly on May’s survey record. All other nations monitored recorded firmer gains in composite activity, led by Spain – the best since February 2000 – and Germany, where growth hit its highest for over a decade. Italy and France both registered their best performances for nearly three-and-a-half years.

Levels of incoming new business placed with private sector companies in the eurozone rose at a substantial pace. Growth was the best for 21 years, according to June’s survey data.

Moreover, there were reported gains from both domestic and international demand sources over the month. New export business, driven in the main by strong manufacturing performance, rose at the sharpest rate since composite data were first available in September 2014.

Capacity inevitably came under pressure over the month, as evidenced by a rise in backlogs of work for the fourth successive month and at a new series record pace (combined backlogs of work data for the private sector were first collected in November 2002).

Staffing levels were subsequently increased for a fifth successive month. The rate of expansion strengthened also, reaching its highest level since the start of 2018. Ireland, Germany and Spain led the way in terms of employment growth.

Confidence in the outlook improved to its highest ever recorded level during June (since mid-2012), as firms signalled optimism that activity will continue to rise sharply in the coming months.

However, cost pressures remained a concern: operating expenses rose in June at a historically elevated rate, with inflation hitting its strongest since September 2000. This helped drive output charges up to the sharpest degree in nearly 19 years of data availability.

The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI® Services Business Activity Index remained comfortably above the 50.0 no-change mark during June, reaching its highest level since July 2007. After accounting for seasonal factors, the index recorded 58.3, up from 55.2 and signalling growth for a third successive month.

Once again, all nations recorded noticeable increases in activity, led by Ireland and Spain. The general easing of COVID-19 restrictions helped to support market activity, according to panellists. This helped to support a noticeable and accelerated increase in new business volumes. Growth in new work was the best recorded by the survey since July 2007.

Capacity did, however, come under noticeable pressure as evidenced by a rise in backlogs of work outstanding for the third month in succession. The net increase was the sharpest recorded since May 2000 and encouraged firms to take on additional staff. Employment in the service sector overall rose for a fifth successive month and growth accelerated to the strongest since October 2018.

Increased demand for staff led to some wage pressures and, along with generally higher prices for goods, fuel and utilities, operating expenses rose at the strongest rate since July 2008. Output charges were raised in response to the greatest degree since October 2000.

Finally, business confidence about the future was the best since August 2000 as firms grew increasingly confident that the recent positive trend in activity will be sustained as the adverse economic effects of the pandemic recede.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit:

Business is booming in the eurozone’s service sector, with output growing at a rate unsurpassed over the past 15 years. Added to the impressive growth seen in the manufacturing sector, the PMI surveys suggest the region’s economy is firing on all cylinders as it heads into the summer. (…)

Firms are increasingly struggling to meet surging demand, however, in part due to labour supply shortages, meaning greater pricing power and underscoring how the recent rise in inflationary pressures is by no means confined to the manufacturing sector. Service sector companies are hiking their prices at the steepest pace for over 20 years as costs spike higher, accompanying a similar jump in manufacturing prices to signal a broad-based increase in inflationary pressures.

June survey data signalled a slowdown in Chinese service sector growth, as an uptick in COVID-19 cases and reduced travel dampened demand. Notably, both business activity and new orders rose at the slowest rates for 14 months. At the same time, there were signs of reduced pressure on capacity and business confidence softened,which led to a slight fall in employment. On the prices front, operating expenses rose only slightly in June, while prices charged fell for the first time since July 2020.

The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posted 50.3 in June, down from 55.1 in May, but still above the neutral 50.0 level to signal a fourteenth successive monthly increase in service sector activity. However, the rate of growth was the softest seen over this period and only marginal.

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The slower upturn in business activity coincided with a softer increase in overall new work. The latest upturn in total sales was likewise the least marked for 14 months and only slight. New work from abroad meanwhile increased only marginally. Firms that recorded higher sales generally commented on firmer market demand. That said, there were also reports that the recent uptick in COVID-19 cases and reduced travel had dampened overall new business.

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The softer rise in new order volumes led to an easing of pressure on capacities in June. After rising modestly in May, outstanding workloads declined slightly at the end of the second quarter.

Companies readjusted their staffing levels in line with business requirements, while there were also reports of staff leaving their posts due to the uptick in virus cases. Consequently, employment across the service sector fell for the first time in four months (albeit marginally).

Latest data showed that the rate of input cost inflation eased markedly during June. Notably, it was the softest increase in operating expenses since September 2020. Companies that registered higher cost burdens generally linked this to increased prices for raw materials and greater staff costs.

Chinese services companies lowered their average output charges for the first time in nearly a year in June. Firms often attributed the fall to efforts to attract new business. That said, the rate of discounting was only slight.

Although Chinese services companies remained strongly upbeat regarding the year-ahead outlook for activity, the resurgence of the COVID-19 virus dampened overall optimism in June. Moreover, the degree of positive sentiment slipped to a nine-month low. Nonetheless, many firms were confident that the pandemic will be controlled, and that market conditions and global demand will revive further over the coming year.

At 50.6 in June, the Composite Output Index slipped from 53.8 in May but remained above the neutral 50.0 value to signal a sustained increase in overall business activity across China. However, the rate of growth was the softest seen in the current 14-month period of expansion and only marginal. Slower expansions in output were recorded across both the manufacturing and service sectors.

Growth in composite new orders likewise softened to a 14-month low in June, with both monitored sectors recording slower rates of growth. Overall employment meanwhile fell fractionally, as job cuts at services companies largely offset an upturn in manufacturing staff numbers.

Inflationary pressures meanwhile eased notably in June. Composite input cost inflation softened to an eight-month low, while prices charged by Chinese companies increased only slightly.

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China’s auto sales likely to fall 16% in June, trade body says

China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said on Monday that it expects vehicle sales in China to hit 1.93 million units in June, down 16.3% from a year earlier.

Auto sales in China, the world’s biggest car market, are expected to grow 24.8% between January and June compared with the same period last year, CAAM said.

In May, auto sales in China fell 3% from the same month a year earlier, snapping a streak of 13 consecutive months of gains since April 2020.

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OPEC+ Deal Fails, Leaving Oil Market Tighter as Prices Surge OPEC+ abandoned its meeting without a deal, tipping the cartel into crisis and leaving the oil market facing tight supplies and rising prices.

Several days of tense talks failed to resolve a bitter dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, delegates said, asking not to be named because the information wasn’t public. The group didn’t agree on a date for its next meeting, according to a statement from OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo.

The most immediate effect of the breakdown is that, unless an agreement can be salvaged, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies won’t increase production for August. That will deprive the global economy of vital extra supplies as demand recovers rapidly from the coronavirus pandemic.

However, the situation is fluid and the group could reactivate talks at any moment. With prices up about 50% this year and climbing toward $80 a barrel, the producers’ group may feel extra pressure from consuming countries concerned about rising inflation.

“Oil prices will pop if no deal means current production levels continue,” said Jason Bordoff, director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “But that’s also not tenable because a price spike actually undermines the interests of the UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.” (…)

Relations have soured between two core OPEC members to such an extent that no compromise was possible. It damages the group’s self-image as a responsible steward of the oil market, raising the specter of the destructive internal price war that caused unprecedented price swings last year. (…)

The cartel’s own data show that once-bloated oil inventories are back down to average levels as the recovery in fuel consumption continues. Demand in the second half will be 5 million barrels a day higher than in the first six months of the year, Barkindo said last week.

Responding to these pressures, OPEC+ was close to a deal last week to boost supply by 400,000 barrels a day each month, while also extending the expiry of its deal from April to December 2022. At the last minute, the UAE said it would only accept the proposal if it was granted the same terms for calculating its quota as the Saudis.

The UAE said throughout that it would accept the output increase without the deal extension, but the Saudis argued that the two elements must go together. (…)

Goldman Sachs:

  • Big picture, the differences between both parties seem surmountable as they agree on ramping-up production into year-end with the still high uncertainty for 2022 oil balances making a pledge to any long-term commitment unnecessary today.

  • Our base-case therefore remains for a gradual increase in production in 2H21 – slightly larger than that discussed by the group (at a 0.5 mb/d monthly rate – akin to lower compliance), followed by similar increases in production in 1Q22 to finally bring the fall in inventories to an end, at their lowest levels since 2013. (…)

  • The recent stalemate has introduced the potential for alternate OPEC+ production paths, and mapping these into our pricing model point to c. $3/bbl upside to our forecast under a delayed production ramp-up scenario and instead $9/bbl downside relative to our forecast in an all out price war and higher quota scenario.

  • Importantly, and unlike last year, this remains in our view a low probability outcome, with its price impact significantly muted by the current large oil deficit and a market requiring a 5 mb/d increase in global production by year-end to prevent inventories from collapsing to critically low levels.

  • We continue to expect that our forecast for higher OPEC+ production in 2022 (akin to higher baselines) would justify Brent prices settling at $75/bbl, above market forwards with Dec-22 Brent still trading at $68.6/bbl. Importantly, the binding nature of a physically tight oil market would still warrant higher prices this summer even if higher output is expected next year, as real assets like commodities are not anticipatory and cannot price future supply-demand changes in the face of low inventories.

SENTIMENT WATCH

(…) individual investors have grown in number: More than 10 million new brokerage accounts are estimated to have been opened in the first half of this year, according to JMP Securities. That is around the total for all of 2020. (…)

And individual traders appear still willing to employ a “buy the dip” strategy. (…)

Now, retail investors are reaching into wider parts of the stock market. For example, VandaTrack data through Thursday show that a semiconductor company, a cruise line and a stock popular on social media all ranked among the top five stocks to see the highest net inflows in the past week. In the second half of June, purchases ranged across energy, materials, financial and industrial companies. Travel stocks, too, also have been a recent favorite.

“There isn’t any one particular theme dominating when it comes to retail buying, which is unusual compared to the herd-like behavior we saw from retail investors earlier in the year chasing a specific set of stocks,” said Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research.

One thing hasn’t changed: Individual investors continue to gravitate to companies with the potential for big price swings. (…)

  • Investors Don’t See End to Record-Breaking Equity Rally Just Yet The likes of BlackRock Inc., State Street Global Markets, UBS Asset Management and JPMorgan Asset Management expect equity markets to keep rising in the second half of the year, with many investors increasingly looking outside the U.S. for more returns.
  • High five We [Goldman Sachs] forecast the S&P 500 index will end 2021 at 4300 – flat compared with today – and rise by 7% to 4600 at year-end 2022. Higher interest rates and looming tax reform will limit near-term upside. The rise and fall in Treasury yields was the chief investment story of 1H and will remain central in 2H. As rates climb to 1.9% at year-end, short duration stocks will outperform their long duration counterparts.
  • High five Kolanovic: Buy tech protection for threat of a reversal “As a hedge, or for tactical downside exposure, we recommend purchasing QQQ October 340/315 put spreads for $5.00, indicatively, ($354.47 reference price), taking advantage of its rich volatility skew (84th %-ile over the last 5-years)”.
TECHNICALS WATCH

My favorite technical analysis firm is getting antsy, as under-the-surface deteriorating breadth measures make the market “increasingly vulnerable” to a short-term correction in a higher-volatility environment.

 spy rsp

 sly iwm

Nasdaq index hits overbought level that sparked declines over the past year

TECH CRACKDOWN

The Cyberspace Administration of China announced the ban Sunday, citing serious violations on Didi Global Inc.’s collection and usage of personal information, without elaborating. That unusually swift decision came two days after the regulator said it was starting a cybersecurity review of the company.

That effectively requires the largest app stores in China, operated by the likes of Apple Inc. and smartphone makers Huawei Technologies Co. and Xiaomi Corp., to strike Didi from their offerings. But the current half-billion or so users can continue to order up rides and other services so long as they downloaded the app before Sunday’s order.

The surprise probe and rapid decision by China’s powerful internet regulator piles on the scrutiny of Didi over issues ranging from antitrust to data security. The company has been grappling with a broad antitrust probe into Chinese internet firms with uncertain outcomes for Didi and peers like major backer Tencent Holdings Ltd. It lost as much as 11% of its market value at one point on Friday, after the watchdog revealed its investigation.

More broadly, Beijing has been curbing the growing influence of China’s largest internet corporations, widening an effort to tighten the ownership and handling of troves of information that online powerhouses from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. to Tencent and Didi scoop up daily from hundreds of millions of users. (…)

“And as a crucial matter of market integrity, China’s regulators should cease allowing companies to list while under investigation.”

No. In May, China’s antitrust regulator ordered Didi and nine other leaders in on-demand transport to overhaul practices from arbitrary price hikes to unfair treatment of drivers. More broadly, Beijing is in the process of a sweeping crackdown on the nation’s Big Tech firms designed to curb their growing influence. In November 2020 the authorities derailed the planned IPO of fintech giant Ant Group Co. and in April hit Alibaba with a record $2.8 billion fine after an antitrust probe found it had abused its market dominance.

Israel Sees Decline in Pfizer Vaccine Efficacy Rate, Ynet Reports

Israel has recorded a steep drop in the efficacy rate of the Pfizer Inc.BioNTech SE in preventing coronavirus infections, due to the spread of the delta variant and the easing of government restrictions, Ynet news website reported, citing Health Ministry data.

At the same time, the decline in protection against serious cases and hospitalization is considerably milder, the website said. There was no immediate comment from the ministry.

The figures show that between May 2 and June 5, the vaccine had a 94.3% efficacy rate. From June 6, five days after the government canceled coronavirus restrictions, until early July, the rate plunged to 64%. A similar decline was recorded in protection against coronavirus symptoms, the report said.

At the same time, protection against hospitalization and serious illness remained strong. From May 2 to June 5, the efficacy rate in preventing hospitalization was 98.2%, compared with 93% from June 6 to July 3. A similar decline in the rate was recorded for the vaccine’s efficiency in preventing serious illness among people who had been inoculated. (…)

Last Friday, 55% of the newly infected had been vaccinated, the website said. (…)

The government is considering reinstating additional coronavirus-related restrictions after restoring a mandate to wear masks indoors in public spaces. Officials are also discussing whether to recommend a third dose of vaccine, the report said.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla has said people will “likely” need a third dose of a Covid-19 vaccine within 12 months of getting fully vaccinated.