Johnson & Johnson Pauses Covid-19 Vaccine Trials Due to Sick Subject The company said an independent committee is reviewing the subject’s illness, and it will review the medical information before deciding whether to restart the studies.
Bloomberg adds:
AstraZeneca Plc ran into a similar problem last month, before restarting in most countries except for the U.S. While late-stage trial halts are not unusual, pressure to find a vaccine means they will gain much more attention. Hopes of a vaccine by election day have been all but dashed as Food and Drug Administration safety measures extend the timeline for approval.
Covid-19 Is Creeping Into Europe’s Schools Schools are reporting thousands of cases in some of the continent’s biggest coronavirus hot spots
(…) More than a third of the U.K.’s 1,700 coronavirus outbreaks, defined as at least two cases, in the four weeks through Sept. 27 occurred in educational settings. About 35% of the 1,070 outbreaks under investigation in France are in schools or universities. Spain, home to Europe’s biggest epidemic, reported Covid-19 cases in 4.5% of its schools as of Sept 24.
In Italy, where the virus’ resurgence has been much slower, the government reported 2,438 cases among elementary, junior-high and high-school students as of Oct. 3, compared with 809 two weeks earlier. Germany hasn’t reported national data showing the impact of the virus on its school system, but public-health authorities said this week it appeared that the pandemic hasn’t had a great impact on schools since they reopened. (..)
Early data suggests adolescence is a turning point. In France, the incidence of the virus for children between the ages of 10 and 19 reached a weekly average of 129.2 per 100,000 from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, compared with 56.5 in the last week of August before school resumed. For children younger than 10, the incidence rate rose only to 21.9 from 16 during the same period. (…)
Trump claims Covid immunity and offers to kiss crowd at rally
“Now they say I’m immune,” Trump said in his hourlong remarks. “I feel so powerful — I’ll walk into that audience! I’ll walk in there — I’ll kiss everyone in that audience. I’ll kiss the guys and the beautiful women and the — everybody. I’ll just give ya a big fat kiss.” (Axios)
- A Nevada man became the first published case of COVID-19 reinfection in the U.S., adding to a growing number of reinfections globally and bolstering evidence that immunity may last for a limited time. (WSJ)
Many Trump supporters unruffled about Covid even as US cases rise President’s backers say his quick recovery is further proof that coronavirus risk is overblown
Meanwhile
Chinese City to Test Nine Million for Coronavirus After Finding a Dozen Cases The Chinese city of Qingdao will test its more than nine million residents for Covid-19, authorities said, after the discovery of a dozen new cases linked to a local hospital—China’s most significant virus scare in months
Fed GDP forecasts diverge widely…again
Data: Atlanta Fed and New York Fed; Chart: Axios Visuals
The gap between projected GDP growth in the third quarter between the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting tool and the New York Fed’s tool continues to widen. Interestingly, it’s similar to the way the two forecasts diverged in Q2.
Both GDPNow forecasts are driven by economic reports that increase or decrease expected U.S. growth for the quarter. The New York Fed’s model put less emphasis on the ISM surveys, which track sentiment rather than hard numbers and were extremely strong last quarter, and it puts greater emphasis on import and export data, which was particularly negative for the U.S. in Q3. (Axios)
China Quarterly Car Sales Shift Out of Reverse for First Time in Two Years China’s car market recorded its first quarter of year-over-year sales growth in two years as a broad economic recovery bolstered consumer confidence and discounts boosted demand, especially for electric vehicles.
Retail passenger-car sales in the country increased by 7.9% in the three months ended September 30 compared with a year earlier, the China Passenger Car Association said Tuesday. For just the month of September, sales increased by 7.3% from last year, reaching 1.91 million vehicles, the Beijing-based body said. (…)
The CPCA said auto makers’ sales of passenger cars to dealerships grew by 8.5% in September, while wholesale sales of new-energy vehicles, a category that includes electric cars, nearly doubled in September compared with a year earlier to more than 125,000 vehicles, marking the strongest rate of growth since April 2019. The group didn’t report retail figures for the category. (…)
Beijing policy makers say they now see new-energy vehicles as “the only way to become an auto power” and “a strategic measure to deal with climate change,” according to an article posted on the central government’s website. (…)
China Exports Supercharged by Medical Equipment and Work-From-Home Gear China’s exports and imports both posted strong gains in September, as a recovery in global and domestic demand provided another boost to the world’s second-largest economy.
China’s imports from global markets jumped 13.2% in September from a year earlier after falling 2.1% in August, according to data released Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs.
Exports topped market expectations for a sixth straight month, rising 9.9% from a year earlier in September—the quickest pace in more than a year—as China continued to benefit from coronavirus-fueled demand for medical equipment and work-from-home electronic products. (…)
China’s surprisingly strong import number reflects improving domestic demand and Beijing’s willingness to fulfill commitments made in the phase one trade deal signed with the U.S. in January, which includes promises by China to buy more American agricultural and energy products.
China’s purchases from its top three trading partners accelerated rapidly last month, with imports from the U.S. rebounding by the largest margin. China’s imports from the U.S. soared 24.8% in September from a year earlier, accelerating from a 1.8% increase in August. (…)
Bank of England asks banks how ready they are for sub-zero rates
(…) “As part of this work, we are requesting specific information about your firm’s current readiness to deal with a zero Bank Rate, a negative Bank Rate, or a tiered system of reserves remuneration – and the steps that you would need to take to prepare for the implementation of these,” Deputy BoE Governor Sam Woods said in a letter to banks. (…)
Money markets last week pushed back bets that the BoE would cut rates below zero. Investors see rates falling below zero in May, 2021, instead of March. (…)