Payroll employment increases by 263,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November, roughly in line with average growth over the prior 3 months (+282,000). Monthly job growth has averaged 392,000 thus far in 2022, compared with 562,000 per month in 2021. In November, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down by 46,000, from +315,000 to +269,000, and the change for October was revised up by 23,000, from +261,000 to +284,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 23,000 lower than previously reported.
In November, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours. In manufacturing, the average workweek for all employees decreased by 0.2 hour to 40.2 hours, and overtime declined by 0.1 hour to 3.1 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 33.9 hours.
Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.1 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 59.9 percent, were little changed in November and have shown little net change since early this year. These measures are each 1.3 percentage points below their values in February 2020, prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 18 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $32.82. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.1 percent. In November, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 19 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $28.10.
November 2022: Job Cuts Soar 127% As Tech Drains Jobs; Highest Monthly Total Since Jan. 2021
U.S.-based employers announced 76,835 cuts in November, a 127% increase from the 33,843 cuts announced in October. It is 417% higher than the 14,875 cuts announced in the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
(Bloomberg)
These are announced layoffs, to be reflected in employment stats when effective.
Consumer Spending Jumped in October as Inflation Eased U.S. households sharply boosted spending as the pace of underlying inflation eased.
Consumer spending increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in October from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Thursday, the strongest gain since June. Households spent more on essentials such as rent and food, as well as new vehicles.
Adjusted for inflation, spending rose 0.5% in October from September, the biggest increase since January. (…)
Household spending rose faster than income in August, September and October, a sign more people are dipping into savings or taking on credit-card debt to keep up spending. The personal-saving rate was 2.3% in October, its lowest level since 2.1% in July 2005, which was the lowest rate in records dating back to 1959.
The personal-consumption expenditures price index rose 6% in October compared with the same month a year ago, marking an easing from 6.3% in September. Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, core inflation was up 5% in October compared with a year ago, down from a 5.4% peak earlier this year. (…)
Household income rose 0.7% in October from the prior month, the Commerce Department said, its fastest pace in a year thanks to pay increases and one-time refundable tax credits issued by a number of states, including California and Rhode Island. (…)
Americans are strongly dissaving (black) to offset decreasing real disposable income (blue), down 0.9% sequentially in the last 9 months (+1.6% a.r. in the last 3 months).
In truth, the October jump in spending is almost entirely due to the huge 2.7% MoM jump in durables, itself mainly because of to the 11.7% jump in October sales of light vehicles. Vehicle sales declined 6.1% in November (see below).
Real spending on Nondurable goods rose 0.3% in October, slightly better than Services +0.2% gain.
The Autodata Corporation reported that light vehicle sales during November fell 6.1% (+9.1% y/y) to 14.39 million units (SAAR) after rising 11.7% in October. Sales still remain significantly below the April 2021 peak 18.37 million. Vehicle sales comprise about four percent of real consumer expenditures.
Imports’ total share of the U.S. vehicle market improved to 24.5% last month after rising to 24.0% in October.
Gas Prices Are Expected to Fall Even Further The average cost of regular unleaded gasoline fell to $3.45 a gallon on Thursday, which is among the lowest levels since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February and a more than 30% drop from June.
(…) China’s scaled-back consumption of oil has been a major contributor to declining global oil prices, analysts said. The Asian nation accounted for 16% of global oil consumption in 2021, according to research firm Capital Economics.
Capital Economics estimates that the recent surge in Covid-19 cases in China will cause oil consumption to fall farther, by one million barrels a day in December. (…)
Mr. Kloza of OPIS said commuting to work still hasn’t fully rebounded to prepandemic levels, one of the reasons why gas prices are lower. In the U.S., demand for fuel in the fourth week of November was 10% lower than the same week in 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. (…)
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said he expects U.S. fuel prices to approach $3 a gallon by the end of the year, while acknowledging there are a few factors that could cause prices to rise again. (…)
U.S. Manufacturing PMI
November sees first deterioration in US manufacturingperformance since June 2020
US manufacturing firms signalled a renewed deterioration in operating conditions in November, according to the latest PMITM data from S&P Global. The downturn was the sharpest since May 2020, and driven by declines in output and new orders. Demand conditions weakened in domestic and external markets, as new export orders fell further.
Employment growth slowed as pressure on capacity dwindled and backlogs of work contracted strongly. On a more positive note, supply chains improved for the first time since October 2019, with price pressures softening as a result of reduced demand for inputs from firms. Input costs rose at the slowest rate for two years.
Business confidence remained historically subdued, however, as concerns regarding inflation and customer hesitancy weighed on optimism.
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) posted 47.7 in November, down from 50.4 in October but broadly in line with the earlier released ‘flash’ estimate of 47.6. The headline index signalled the first decline in the health of the manufacturing sector since June 2020, with operating conditions deteriorating modestly overall.
Contributing to the fall in the headline reading was a renewed drop in production during November. The decrease in output was solid overall, and the quickest for two-and-a-half years. Where a decline in production was noted, firms linked this to weak client demand and a further downturn in new order inflows.
Manufacturing firms stated that the impact of inflation and higher borrowing costs dented customer demand and led to a reduction in spending again midway through the fourth quarter. New orders fell at the sharpest pace since May 2020, as foreign client demand also waned. New export orders decreased for the sixth month running and at a strong rate. (…)
Subsequently, cost pressures softened again midway through the fourth quarter. The rate of input price inflation eased for the sixth successive month to the slowest since
November 2020. Reports of lower prices for key inputs such as plastic, lumber and steel alleviated some pressure on cost burdens.Output charges rose at the second-slowest pace since February 2021 in November. Although firms continued to pass-through higher costs to clients, the pace of inflation
was dampened by discounts offered to customers in an effort to drive sales.Input buying declined at a marked pace during November, as demand for inputs dropped following lower production requirements. The rate of contraction was the quickest since May 2020. At the same time, stocks of purchases fell solidly amid lower purchasing activity. Post-production inventories rose modestly, however, amid lower than expected new orders. (…)
Here’s one rendition of the ISM new orders index: “ISM new orders falling by 2 pts to 47.2 didn’t convey the weakness in demand. Only 1 of 18 industries reported higher orders, lowest since Nov’08. Share reporting higher orders down from 13 in March to 1 in Nov, biggest 8-month drop since data began in 2005.”
BofA Says Sell Equities Rally Ahead of 2023 Unemployment Shock Market strategy teams at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have also warned of further declines early next year amid the specter of an economic recession.
US warns Beijing it cannot control Covid-19 without western jabs
- China’s 2023 F1 Grand Prix Will Not Take Place Due to Covid The 24-race Formula 1 calendar for 2023 that was announced on Sept. 20 included a Grand Prix in China for April.