THE DAILY EDGE: 24 MARCH 2020

VIRUS UPDATE

The U.S. seems to be on the same slope as most of Europe, with much less testing (NYT)…

…but not really…This a.m., the U.S. count is 46,450.

Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 cases (NBF)

• The number of deaths world-wide surpassed 16,000, with more than 360,000 confirmed cases.
• Cases in the U.S. alone crossed 41,000 [now 46,450], growing 10-fold from a week earlier, as more state governors ordered residents to stay home.
• Italy has a glimpse of hope as new coronavirus cases drop to a 5-day low.

As Economic Toll Mounts, Nation Ponders Trade-Offs The White House is discussing easing social-distancing guidelines as early as next week amid a broader debate over how much economic loss the country can bear to save an unknowable number of lives threatened by the coronavirus pandemic

President Trump has told people that he wants to reopen the economy as soon as possible but his interest runs counter to the advice of public health experts, including in the administration, who have warned that the guidelines remain necessary. (…)

“America will again and soon be open for business,” he pledged. “It won’t be that long.” (…) An administration official said the White House is discussing targeting the restrictions at vulnerable groups, such as requiring the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions to take greater precautions than younger, healthy people. Such a shift may not happen immediately after the 15-day period ends, the official said, adding that the White House is operating with a “high degree of caution.” (…)

Private-sector economists project the toll of the crisis will include 5 million lost jobs and $1.5 trillion in lost economic output. (…) At the same time, a widely cited study by Imperial College London warns the U.S. faces 2.2 million deaths from the virus if it does nothing to stop its spread. (…)

Easing the guidelines would run counter to public health experts who have said sustained social distancing is needed until the U.S. develops a vigorous testing regime to identify and isolate cases. The virus can be spread when people are asymptomatic. (…)

Dr. Jerome Adams, the U.S. surgeon general, said on Monday the federal guidelines were working, but that “the problem is that we really need more people to take this seriously.” (…)

In the U.S., health experts have urged continued shutdowns until the country builds the ability for massive testing to identify and quarantine infected individuals. But the country is so far behind in its testing ability, with shortages of critical chemicals and supplies looming, that it remains unclear whether it could take months or even a year to implement the testing strategies that enabled Singapore and South Korea to contain cases while keeping major swaths of their economies running. (…)

The 5 million jobs lost and the lost economic output will come back after the lockdowns, unlike the potential 2.2 million deaths. Trump’s math and “reasoning”:

Trump drew parallels to the flu season, which he said was on pace to be responsible for the deaths of some 50,000 Americans, as well as to car crashes — comparisons that Fauci and other experts have dismissed as examples of false equivalency.

“You look at automobile accidents, which are far greater than any numbers we’re talking about,” Trump said. “That doesn’t mean we’re going to tell everybody no more driving of cars.”

To be precise, influenza, the common flu, has infected as many as 45 million Americans since October and killed as many as 46,000, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. My math says that 0.1% of infected people will die from the flu.

The mortality rate for Covid-19: 16,700 deaths on 387,000 known infected: 4.3%. Yes, we do not know the full number of infected people, but we also do not know the final number of deaths. People do not die as soon as they get infected. In early March, the death rate was 3.0%. Since then: 4.8%. BTW, the death rate in Italy is 9.5%, Spain: 6.6%, France 4.3%. Japan: 3.7%. South Korea which has been testing extensively and implementing strict confinement rules early: 1.3%. Let’s hope for this latest number, still a lot more than 0.1%.

Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, said the “attack rate” — the percentage of the population infected with the virus — was nearly one in 1,000 in the New York area, five times higher than in other parts of the country.

China’s Hubei Province to Ease Coronavirus Lockdown Authorities are planning to lift the mass quarantine on the central province where the coronavirus pandemic first emerged, excluding Wuhan, on Wednesday. The city will follow next month

(…) Even so, only people deemed free from contagion risk will be allowed to leave. Those leaving Hubei must possess a “green code” issued by provincial authorities to certify their health status, the notice said.

Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, will end its controls on outbound traffic starting April 8, according to the notice, and those departing must also possess the green code attesting to their health. (…)

China has reported several days without new domestic infections in the past week. It continues to report new cases among travelers from abroad, and more than 4,000 people in the country are still sick from the virus, mostly in Wuhan. A third of those are in intensive care.

Health authorities reported 74 cases imported from abroad Monday,along with four local infections and seven deaths.

U.S. Strategic Stockpile of Medical Supplies Is Outmatched by Coronavirus Hospitals call for White House to direct private business to produce protective medical gear; states say requests for emergency supplies are only partially filled

• Opinion piece from Walter Russell Mead in the WSJ:

(…) So far, however, the coronavirus does not seem to be promoting cooperation among world leaders or respect for global institutions. The pandemic has widened the gap between the U.S. and China. While the EU has moved quickly to remove limits on eurozone members’ fiscal deficits, Europe’s national governments so far have focused almost entirely on addressing their problems without much consultation. Steps like excluding Taiwan from emergency meetings and praising China’s response to the virus have made the World Health Organization look like a mouthpiece for Beijing. Neither the Group of Seven nor the Group of 20 has played a conspicuous role, and the IMF and World Bank haven’t been at the forefront of the world’s response. National governments, not international agencies and institutions, have primarily shaped the response. (…)

• We need a global plan

Excerpted from an FT free-to-read piece: Yuval Noah Harari: the world after coronavirus

(…) Both the epidemic itself and the resulting economic crisis are global  problems. They can be solved effectively only by global co-operation.

First and foremost, in order to defeat the virus we need to share information globally.  That’s the big advantage of humans over viruses. A coronavirus in China and a coronavirus in the US cannot swap tips about how to infect humans. But China can  teach the US many valuable lessons about coronavirus and how to deal with it. What an Italian doctor discovers in Milan in the early morning might well save lives in Tehran by  evening. When the UK government hesitates between several policies, it can get advice  from the Koreans who have already faced a similar dilemma a month ago. But for this to happen, we need a spirit of global co-operation and trust.

Countries should be willing to share  information openly and humbly seek advice,  and should be able to trust the data and the insights they receive. We also need a global effort to produce and distribute medical equipment, most notably testing kits and respiratory machines. Instead of every country trying to do it locally and hoarding whatever equipment it can get, a co-ordinated global effort could greatly accelerate production and make sure life-saving equipment is distributed more fairly. (…)

Global co-operation is vitally needed on the economic front too. Given the global nature of the economy and of supply chains, if each government does its own thing in complete disregard of the others, the result will be chaos and a deepening crisis. We need a global plan of action, and we need it fast.

Another requirement is reaching a global agreement on travel. Suspending all international travel for months will cause tremendous hardships, and hamper the war against coronavirus. Countries need to co-operate in order to allow at least a trickle of essential travellers to continue crossing borders: scientists, doctors, journalists, politicians, businesspeople. This can be done by reaching a global agreement on the prescreening of travellers by their home country. If you know that only carefully screened travellers were allowed on a plane, you would be more willing to accept them into your country.

Unfortunately, at present countries hardly do any of these things. A collective paralysis has gripped the international community. There seem to be no adults in the room. One would have expected to see already weeks ago an emergency meeting of global leaders to come up with a common plan of action. The G7 leaders managed to organise a videoconference only this week, and it did not result in any such plan.

In previous global crises — such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2014 Ebola epidemic — the US assumed the role of global leader. But the current US administration has abdicated the job of leader. It has made it very clear that it cares about the greatness of America far more than about the future of humanity.

This administration has abandoned even its closest allies. When it banned all travel from the EU, it didn’t bother to give the EU so much as an advance notice — let alone consult with the EU about that drastic measure. It has scandalised Germany by allegedly offering $1bn to a German pharmaceutical company to buy monopoly rights to a new Covid-19 vaccine. Even if the current administration eventually changes tack and comes up with a global plan of action, few would follow a leader who never takes responsibility, who never admits mistakes, and who routinely takes all the credit for himself while leaving all the blame to others.

If the void left by the US isn’t filled by other countries, not only will it be much harder to stop the current epidemic, but its legacy will continue to poison international relations for years to come. Yet every crisis is also an opportunity. We must hope that the current epidemic will help humankind realise the acute danger posed by global disunity.

Humanity needs to make a choice. Will we travel down the route of disunity, or will we adopt the path of global solidarity? If we choose disunity, this will not only prolong the crisis, but will probably result in even worse catastrophes in the future. If we choose global solidarity, it will be a victory not only against the coronavirus, but against all future epidemics and crises that might assail humankind in the 21st century.

From cover-up to global donor: China’s soft power play With its economy showing signs of life, Beijing aims to restore a reputation damaged by coronavirus

• China seeks united coronavirus front with Europe amid blame game with US

(…) “The whole human race should join efforts to combat the virus,” Xinhua quoted Xi as saying. (…)

• Trump changes tune, drops ‘Chinese virus’ phrase and lauds cooperation

(…) “It’s very important that we totally protect our Asian-American community in the United States and all around the world,” Trump said at a White House briefing.

“They’re amazing people and the spreading of the virus is not their fault in any way shape or form,” he said. “They’re working closely with us to get rid of it. We will prevail together. It’s very important.” (…)

The shift in tone was abrupt, and characterised what was the least combative briefing Trump has had with the media since he began leading them earlier this month.

Just three days ago, for example, Trump said: “The world is paying a very big price for what [China] did … If people would have known about it … it could have been stopped right where it came from: China.”

Trump’s new tone came after a week of his and several senior officials’ insistence on prefacing the disease with “Chinese”, leading to widespread condemnation from both within the US – including lawmakers, Asian-American advocacy groups and the wider public – and abroad. (…)

Is something good and sensible really happening?

Halt in U.S. Air Traffic Weighed to Aid Industry Major U.S. airlines are drafting plans for a potential voluntary shutdown of virtually all passenger flights across the U.S. as the nation’s air-traffic control system is ravaged by the coronavirus contagion.

PANDENOMICS

FLASH PMIs

There is no need/time to go through all the details. Here are the key charts and the links to the pdfs:

IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI

IHS Markit Flash Eurozone PMI

au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI

• Coronavirus latest: PMIs understate depth of crisis, say economists

Coronavirus Sparks Hiring Spree for Nearly 500,000 Jobs at Big Retailers Walmart, Amazon.com and CVS are among about a dozen large companies looking to hire nearly 500,000 Americans in coming weeks, a spree that would mark a major shift of the U.S. workforce from smaller businesses that have cut staff to survive the coronavirus.

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At 2350:

• PANDEMONIUM

• BOTTOM FISHING?