U.S. Durable-Goods Orders Rose for Fifth Consecutive Month in September Orders for products designed to last at least three years rose 1.9% compared with August
A closely watched proxy for business investment—new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—increased by 1% last month. The measure had recovered all of its pandemic-related losses by August, suggesting that businesses have ramped up capacity in anticipation of growing demand. (…)
Excluding transportation, orders were up 0.8%. Excluding defense, they were 3.4% higher than the previous month. (…)
Demand has been especially high for autos, electronics and communications equipment—a category that includes telephones—suggesting U.S. consumer demand is also helping lift factories. (…)
Even with big gains in recent months, overall durable-goods orders are still shy of their immediate prepandemic peak. (…)
(…) The gain in durable-goods orders was slower than in the late spring and early summer. But with the overall level of new orders now above where it was before the pandemic, it is impressive. Much of that reflects a catch-up after orders collapsed during the worst of the crisis, but some unusual dynamics in two key areas of demand—cars and housing—are also playing a big role. (…)
U.S. Home-Price Growth Accelerated in August S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index measuring average home prices in major metropolitan areas rose 5.7%
(…) “It is the historically low inventories and record-low mortgage rates that are outweighing economic and employment headwinds and fueling the price acceleration.” (…) The Case-Shiller 10-city index gained 4.7% over the year ended in August, compared with a 3.5% increase in July. The 20-city index rose 5.2%, after an annual gain of 4.1% in July. (…)
A separate measure of home-price growth by the Federal Housing Finance Agency also released Tuesday found a 8% increase in home prices in August from a year earlier. (…)
Coronavirus update: U.S. case tally tops 8.7 million and marks seven-day record, with more than 20 states seeing most new cases since start of the outbreak
(…) The Midwest and Mountain West are the current hot spots, led by the Dakotas. Those states were hit hard after the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in August drew about 500,000 bikers to the small town, most of whom were filmed gathering closely in bars and restaurants without wearing face masks. (…)
There are currently 42,917 Americans hospitalized with COVID-19, according to the COVID Tracking Project, the highest number since Aug. 19. There are 8,842 patients in intensive care units. Hospitals in many parts of the country are seeing record numbers of COVID-19 patients and resources are rapidly becoming stretched. Utah has warned that it may have to start rationing care of the most ill people in ICUs, the Washington Post reported.
Newark is the latest city and first area in New Jersey to introduce a business curfew, starting Tuesday. Businesses will be required to close at 8 p.m. New Jersey, an early hot spot in the pandemic, has lost 16,292 lives to the virus, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University. (…)
A USA Today analysis of President Donald Trump’s election rallies found that he left a trail of coronavirus outbreaks in his wake. Since mid-August, Trump has staged nearly three dozen rallies, mostly inside airport hangars, defying federal health guidelines and some state orders. (…)
“Under all scenarios evaluated here, the United States is likely to face a continued public health challenge from the COVID-19 pandemic through 28 February 2021 and beyond, with populous states in particular potentially facing high levels of illness, deaths and ICU demands as a result of the disease,” the study states. (…)
Germany is close to reaching 20,000 new coronavirus infections a day, economy minister Peter Altmaier told a German-French economic conference in Berlin, Reuters reported. His warning comes a day after Chancellor Angela Merkel said the country, which was widely admired for its initial efforts to contain the spread, was close to losing control of the pandemic. “We are dealing with exponential growth,” Altmaier said. “In Germany the number of new infections is rising by 70-75% compared to the week before.” (…)
Russia has reinstated a nationwide face mask mandate, after a record 320 people died in a 24-hour period, The Moscow Times reported. Bars and clubs in Moscow will stay open past 11 p.m. and continue to use the QR code check-in system. Russia has 1.5 million confirmed COVID-19 cases, the Johns Hopkins data shows, or fourth highest in the world, and at least 26,409 Russians have died.
China counted 26 new coronavirus cases in the prefecture of Kashgar between Sunday and Monday, according to broadcaster CGTN. Officials have tested all 4.7 million residents of Kashgar, after finding a cluster of asymptomatic cases that are understood to have come from a textile factory. (…)
U.S. government officials are putting an early end to a study testing an Eli Lilly LLY, -6.91% antibody drug for people hospitalized with COVID-19 because it doesn’t seem to be helping them, the Associated Press reported. (…) But on Monday, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which sponsors the study, said a closer look found no safety problem but a low chance that the drug would prove helpful for hospitalized patients. (…) President Donald Trump received a similar experimental antibody drug from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. REGN, -0.55% on an emergency basis when he was sickened with the coronavirus earlier this month. (…)
Biosig Technologies Inc. BSGM, halted a trial of its COVID-19 treatment given disappointing results. (…)
Cuomo Seeks to Keep 95% of U.S. Out of New York as Virus Rages
Bill Dudley: The Fed Is Really Running Out of Firepower
(…) This means America’s future prosperity depends more than ever on the government’s spending plans — something the president and Congress must recognize. (…)
Even if the Fed did more — much more — it would not provide much additional support to the economy. Interest rates are already about as low as they can go, and financial conditions are extremely accommodative. Stock prices are high, investors are demanding very little added yield to take on credit risk, and a weak dollar is supporting U.S. exports. The rate on a 30-year mortgage stands at about 3%. If the Fed managed to push that down by another 0.5 percentage point, what difference would it make? Hardly any. The housing market is already doing very well.
Moreover, the stimulus provided by lower interest rates inevitably wears off. Cutting interest rates boosts the economy by bringing future activity into the present: Easy money encourages people to buy houses and appliances now rather than later. But when the future arrives, that activity is missing. The only way to keep things going is to lower interest rates further — until, that is, they hit their lower bound, which in the U.S. is zero. (…)
What to do? No doubt, Fed officials should still commit to using all their tools to the fullest. But they should also make it abundantly clear that monetary policy can provide only limited additional support to the economy. It’s up to legislators and the White House to give the economy what it needs —and right now, that means considerably greater fiscal stimulus.
Coronavirus surge is sinking consumer confidence
Axios’ headline seems a little exaggerated for the latest Conf. Board survey (The U. of Michigan’s is worse)…
…but ING notes that “there was a bigger decline in the more important expectations series” and this next chart explains why. Everything but the yellow area will disappear during Q4:
EARNINGS WATCH
After 170 reports, the beat rate is 84% and the surprise factor +16.4%.
Q3 earnings are now seen down 16.2% (-21.4% expected on Oct. 1). Q4: -12.1% (-13.6%).
Trailing EPS are now $138.01. Full year estimate: 2020: $132.31; 2021: $166.64.
CFOs Brace for Trade Tensions, More Tariffs After Election President Trump expected to rely on tariffs if re-elected while Joe Biden proposes multilateral approach to trade
A second Trump administration is expected to continue using tariffs to try to protect U.S. companies from foreign competition and negotiate better trade agreements. President Trump in a second term will also likely continue using unilateral tools such as new tariffs to address trade concerns with China.
By contrast, Democratic challenger Joe Biden has said he intends to consult with allies on a common approach toward China and won’t sign new trade deals until he gives the middle class an economic boost, in part by creating jobs. The former vice president has also said he would use tariffs, such as quotas on imports from countries that fail to meet climate targets. (…)
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Tariffs Didn’t Fuel Revival for American Steel President Trump’s 25% duties haven’t yielded the steelmaking renaissance that he promised during his 2016 campaign. The industry’s early job gains evaporated as steel demand and prices sank.
(…) What’s more, the tariffs have hurt U.S. manufacturers, including those in the automotive and appliance sectors, who say the duties on steel and aluminum continue to keep their metal costs higher than what overseas competitors pay. (…) Steel producers including United States Steel Corp. X 4.79% remain supportive of the tariffs, saying they helped secure the U.S. manufacturing base. But domestic steel producers that turn mattress-size slabs of imported steel into finished sheet steel said they are hurting. (…)
With the expanded production, about 6,000 jobs were added to the U.S. steel industry’s workforce after tariffs started in 2018, according to the Census Bureau. By the end of 2019, though, those gains evaporated as steel demand and prices sank.
Higher prices also made steel more expensive for manufacturers that buy it, leading to the loss of about 75,000 U.S. manufacturing jobs, according to a study released late last year by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
The tariffs led to retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. exports. Harley-Davidson Inc. shifted motorcycle production for Europe to an overseas plant in 2018 after the European Union slapped a 31% tariff on U.S.-made bikes. (…)
Trump campaign places Facebook ads telling users wrong election day Messages seen by up to 200,000 voters before they were taken down for violating misinformation rules
Was probably meant as a joke…