History and science suggest the second winter with coronavirus is likely to be worse than the first. The pathogen is more entrenched and most respiratory viruses circulate primarily in the winter months. (Bloomberg)
Wave Three?
This is from Bespoke:
“By early October the first fall outbreaks and the memory of those in the spring had already suggested that the virus attacked in a cycle; it took roughly six weeks from the appearance of the first cases for the epidemic to peak and then abate in civilian areas, and from three to four weeks in a military camp with its highly concentrated population. After the epidemic abated, cases still occurred intermittently, but not in the huge numbers that overwhelmed all services.” – John M. Barry, The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History
(..) The first wave of the COVID outbreak, which was centered in the northeast, began on 2/24 when the US started to average at least one new confirmed COVID case per day. That wave peaked 46 days later on April 10th. Over the next 48 days, the number of cases gradually drifted lower through the end of May. On 5/28, the decline in cases reached a low, but then started rising again as the second wave of the outbreak flared up in the sunbelt.
During the second wave of the outbreak, the number of cases quickly increased to new highs before peaking on July 22nd, a period spanning 55 days. As case counts across the sunbelt surged, states in the northeast continued to see cases but not to nearly the same degree as they did during the first wave. From 7/22 through 9/12 (52 days), the second wave of the outbreak started to ebb, but ever since then, we’ve started to see a renewed uptick in cases. This time, however, the states most affected by this third wave of the outbreak have been concentrated in the midwest, while case counts in the states impacted by the first two waves are nowhere near their prior peaks.
What’s also notable about the first two waves of the outbreak is that all of the legs higher and lower have spanned a period of between 46 and 55 days or six to eight weeks. That’s similar to the ‘roughly six weeks’ that each wave lasted during the 1918 pandemic. Given the fact that the second wave saw more cases than the first wave, does that mean the third wave will see a higher number of cases than the second? Not necessarily. Anything can happen but with the states being hit hardest by COVID now collectively having smaller populations and less geographic density than the areas hit hardest in the first two waves, the likelihood of larger caseloads would seem less likely.
Hospitalizations and deaths follow similar trends with a lag:
Bespoke continues:
Taking the seven-day average case counts from notable states around the country further illustrates the similarities between now and 1918. States like New York, Arizona, Florida, and California all appear to be past the peaks of the epidemic in their regions, and while case counts haven’t disappeared, new reported cases have been much less frequent and continuous than they were at their peaks. Meanwhile, states in the midwest, like Missouri, which were previously spared by much of the new case burden, are only just now hitting the peaks of their outbreaks. How the COVID-19 pandemic progresses from here through the winter months is impossible for anyone to predict, but the fact that the current outbreak has been following similar patterns to the way the 1918 pandemic played out provides some degree of encouragement.
Let’s hope. But this ain’t totally obvious just yet.
This chart isolates the Midwest where cases now average 12k/day, nearly 30% of the U.S. total and hospitalizations exceed 6.6k/d (22%):
MIDWEST
But even excluding the Midwest, U.S. cases and hospitalizations seem on the verge of another flare up:
U.S. EX MIDWEST
Covid Exit Strategy is a group of public health and crisis experts with former experience working at the White House, Department of Health and Human Services, and on the Ebola epidemic in West Africa. “We are a non-partisan group, having worked across multiple administrations. We built this site to track each state’s progress towards stopping the spread of COVID-19.” Great set of charts.
- Cases Surge in Parts of New York New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said there were 868 new cases in the state on Sept. 27, an 18% increase from two weeks earlier. A higher percentage of those getting tested are now coming back positive, suggesting the amount of virus in the community is on the rise.
- Quebec Orders Public Places to Close In Fight Against Virus Wave The province, which has had more virus deaths than 40 U.S. states, is an epicenter of a second wave with about 5,000 active cases, a 71% jump from the beginning of August.
- Germany’s Angela Merkel will recommend limiting private meetings and public gatherings to reverse a recent spike, reports said.
- In Moscow, all schools were ordered to close for two weeks from Oct. 5.
Study finds 9 in 10 coronavirus patients experience side effects after recovery
Nine out of 10 patients who tested positive for the coronavirus reported at least one side effect of the disease following their recovery, according to a new online study of more than 900 people by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.
Researchers say more than 90 percent of patients reported side effects frequently associated with the disease, including loss of taste and smell, fatigue and psychological issues.
Fatigue was the most common reported side effect, with more than 26 percent of patients experiencing extreme tiredness, followed by difficulty in concentration, according to researchers behind the survey. (…)
An estimated 300,000 people in Britain have reported symptoms lasting more than a month, and 60,000 people reported symptoms for more than three months, according to the Covid Symptom Study app. (…)
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“If we focus just on the death rate, eventually everyone is going to say this is no big deal,” [Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist at the University of Toronto] said. “We should reframe our understanding of Covid as vascular disease that causes widespread brain damage in the population.”
Barely two in 10 Americans would take a first-generation coronavirus vaccine if President Trump alone told them it was safe — one of several new measures of his sinking credibility in the latest wave of the Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index.
Manhattan Offices Are Nearly Empty, Threatening New York City’s Recovery
Office vacancies spike in Toronto, Vancouver as pandemic fuels work-from-home migration
Democrats Unveil $2.2 Trillion Pandemic Relief Bill House Democrats released a new coronavirus relief package that would restore $600 weekly jobless benefits, a last-ditch effort to revive stalled talks with the White House. Any legislation would face immediate hurdles in the GOP-led Senate, where many Republicans have resisted a large new round of deficit spending and expressed more confidence that the economy is recovering, after a sharp slump earlier this year.
TECHNICALS WATCH
Yesterday’s market strength was broad as small caps rose 2.8%. Lowry’s Research’s Buying Power rose 5 while Selling Pressure dropped 5.
SPAC ATTACK
It was just a question of time: Easterly Alternatives is seeking to raise $100 million for a fund that will invest exclusively in up to 15 special purpose acquisition companies, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg. A Spac Spac.
Inside the JPMorgan Trading Desk the U.S. Called a Crime Ring The U.S. says the precious metals desk at JPMorgan was a racketeering operation. Now the bank is poised to pay a record penalty for spoofing. Here’s a look behind eight years of alleged conspiracy
EIGHT years! But what’s a $1B fine when you are worth $400B? (answer: 0.25%). And what about all the other institutions/individuals that benefitted?
Just one more in a long, long list (libor, mortgage, bonds, FX) involving an also long, long depressing list (WFC, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, RBS, City, etc…)
Also depressing:
David Kotok, CEO at Cumberland Advisors: “We enter the fourth quarter waiting for well-tested COVID vaccines and safe, proven treatments, and we hold our breath for a peaceful and uncontested election outcome.”
In the USA?!
Only 41% of Republicans would commit…