Jobs Go Unfilled as the Economy Expands Job openings reached 6.7 million last quarter, a 17-year high, with demand for workers growing the most in transportation
(…) Overall in June, the number of available jobs exceeded the number of unemployed Americans by nearly 100,000. (…)
The number of unfilled jobs in transportation, warehousing and utilities, combined, grew by 109,000 over the past year to 298,000, a 58% increase, the largest growth rate of about 20 broad groupings tracked by the Labor Department. (…)
To attract drivers, Scotlynn has raised pay about 4% from a year earlier and purchased new Peterbilt and Kenworth trucks with high-end features such as leather seats and double-size bunks. (…)
Average weekly pay for retail nonsupervisory workers rose 4.7% from a year earlier in July, the Labor Department said last week. That is well ahead of nearly 3% overall wage growth. But the sector pays those workers an average of $15.31 an hour. Average hourly pay in manufacturing is $20.88 an hour and in construction it is $26.74, making it hard for retailers to compete. (…)
Did you know that in each of May, June and July of this year, ALL net new jobs were filled by Americans with no college education. Looked at the other way, jobs held by College educated Americans declined 332,000 during the last 3 months while employment for High School Graduates with No College rose by 1.1 million, which is more than the sum of all months since October 2016. This goes a long way explaining why average wages remain so subdued.
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Pilot Shortage Spurs Hiring Spree Airlines are boosting salaries and setting up training centers to combat what is projected to be one of the biggest-ever pilot shortfalls.
U.S. Small-Business Owners’ Optimism at Record High
U.S. small-business owners are more optimistic now than at any point in the 15-year history of the Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index. In the latest quarterly survey, which measures small-business owners’ attitudes about a wide variety of factors affecting their businesses, the overall index score is +118. This is higher than prior 2018 measures — with Quarter 2, 2018, at +106 and Quarter 1 at +107. The index now sits just above the record-high +114 from 2006. (…)
Note: the red arrow is from me to remind us all that this is merely a coincident indicator.
But wait, there is this other survey, also conducted in July:
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Trump’s Tariffs Turn Small Businesses Upside Down Large companies have mostly shrugged off the impact of the U.S.’s trade skirmish with China. Smaller ones and startups lack the wiggle room to absorb cost increases or shift production, and many are re-evaluating their plans and strategies.
(…) The impact is now being felt particularly acutely by small businesses and startups. Broadly, this class of company, like others, feels good about the economy. But compared with larger operations, they have less ability to deflect higher materials prices or pass along new costs to customers.
Tariffs throw a wrench into pricing calculations and eat into profit margins. Smaller firms also are less able to shift production to other locations and have smaller reserves to draw on when times get tough.
Even those that benefit from a surge in domestic business are struggling to ramp up quickly enough to take advantage. (…)
Among smaller firms, optimism for growth fell in July to its lowest level since the 2016 presidential election, according to a monthly survey of more than 750 small firms for The Wall Street Journal by Vistage Worldwide Inc. (…)
Some companies expect little impact from tariffs, either because their competitors face the same economics or because strong demand makes it easier to pass along higher costs. (…)
In sectors where tariffs have yet to take hold, companies are stocking up ahead of expected price increases, which can be difficult for smaller businesses. (…)
Chinese exports accelerate even as Trump escalates trade war
(…) China’s exports for July rose a bigger than expected 12.2 percent year-on-year, showing little tariff impact for now and beating June’s 11.2 percent rise and analysts expectations in a Reuters poll for 10 percent growth.
Of more direct consequence in the Sino-U.S. trade war, China’s surplus with the United States shrank only marginally to $28.09 billion last month from a record $28.97 billion in June. (…)
China’s trade with the U.S. also continued to rise in July despite the tariffs, with exports up 11.2 percent year-on-year, and imports increasing 11.1 percent. (…)
U.S. to Impose Tariffs on Another $16 Billion in Chinese Imports
Trump’s Trade Deal With Seoul Jeopardized by Car-Tariff Fight
Maersk Cuts Forecast as Shipping Slump Deepens
A.P. Moeller-Maersk AMKBY 6.49% A/S, the world’s biggest cargo carrier, warned Tuesday its earnings would be weaker than expected this year due to rising fuel prices, soft freight rates and escalating trade tensions. (…)
Container shipping moves 98% of the world’s manufactured goods, but freight rates are about half of break-even levels across major trade routes. Rates have declined despite a wave of consolidation over the past two years that has resulted in only about a half dozen global operators.
“The operators are less, but competition continues to eat us all up because of rampant overcapacity,” said a senior executive of a European box-ship operator who asked not to be named. “Price wars and undercutting is more fierce than ever.” (…)
Maersk has said the initial round of tariffs is expected to have a small impact on its business, but “a continued escalation could result in severe consequences for global trade.”
High-Stakes Races in Ohio, Kansas Are Too Close to Call Two high-stakes elections in Ohio and Kansas during the homestretch of primary season were too close to call, foreshadowing the fierce battle to come around the nation in November’s midterms.
(…) In an Ohio House district that President Trump won by 11 percentage points in 2016, Republican Troy Balderson claimed a razor-thin victory over Democrat Danny O’Connor, although the Associated Press said the race is too close to call.
The closely watched Republican gubernatorial primary in Kansas also was headed to a photo finish with Kris Kobach, the state’s controversial secretary of state, running neck and neck against Gov. Jeff Colyer. (…)
No matter the final outcome, the special election’s narrow margin could foreshadow deep trouble for the GOP’s effort to keep control of the House this November. Democrats need to win 23 seats from the GOP to take a majority.
The district is typical of the dozens of House seats targeted by Democrats, who hope to capitalize on suburban Republicans’ frustration with Mr. Trump. (…)
EARNINGS WATCH
428 reports in, beat rate at 79% and surprise factor at +5.3% with only 2 sectors below +5.2%!
But pre-announcements keep getting worse:
