US, Iran Weigh Longer Truce as Pakistan Boosts Mediation Efforts
(…) The US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive matters. Neither side desires restarting fighting, said another person familiar with the discussions, with the war having devastated Iran’s infrastructure and sent energy prices soaring, including in the US. (…)
Iran has said it isn’t pursuing a weapons program. The country’s right to peaceful use of nuclear energy “cannot be revoked,” Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Wednesday. However, the level and type of enrichment are “negotiable,” he added. (…)
(…) A U.S. official said President Trump’s negotiating team — Vice President Vance, White House envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner — continued making calls and exchanging draft proposals with the Iranians and mediators Tuesday.
- “They were on the phone and backchanneling with all the countries and they are getting closer,” the U.S. official said.
- A second U.S. official confirmed progress was made Tuesday.
- “We want to make a deal. And parts of their government want to make a deal. Now the trick is to get the whole of government over there to make the deal,” a third U.S. official said.
- Vance, who led the initial talks in Pakistan last week, said at a Turning Point USA event in Georgia Tuesday: “I think the people we’re sitting across from wanted to make a deal. … I feel very good about where we are.”
- “The details are complicated — you can’t do that in two days,” one U.S. official said.
Gulf states turn to private deals in $10bn wartime borrowing spree
Gulf monarchies have discreetly raised almost $10bn in private sales of bonds this month in their first international borrowing since the Iran war delivered a major hit to their economies.
Abu Dhabi has sold $4.5bn, Qatar $3bn and Kuwait $2bn in private placements of US dollar bonds since the start of April, sidestepping public markets where they typically issued debt before the war but where borrowing costs can be more uncertain. (…)
The Iran war is delivering a sizeable blow to their economies, with Qatar forced to suspend exports of liquefied natural gas and oil flows from Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates sharply reduced, hitting the bedrock of their economies.
“Even if the war ends soon, we expect all six Gulf states to record negative GDP growth this year of 5-10 per cent,” Capital Economics analysts said. (…)
Gulf state-owned banks have meanwhile raised hundreds of millions of dollars in recent weeks through private placements of bonds and other forms of short-term debt, sometimes through branches in Asia.
Iran’s Shadow Fleet Meets Its Match in U.S. Blockade A network of vessels has helped Iran evade sanctions but naval patrols pose a new challenge
(…) Early signs are that after years of dodging restrictions, the Iranian shadow fleet may have met its match in the U.S. naval blockade—its ships now appear unable to leave the Persian Gulf. (…)
On Wednesday, Centcom, which oversees U.S. forces in the region, said that no ships got through its blockade of Iranian ports in its first 48 hours. Nine vessels obeyed direction from U.S. forces to reverse course and re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman, Centcom said.
At least 10 ships transited the strait on Tuesday, according to Lloyd’s, some with the hallmarks of shadow-fleet activity, shipping analysts say. (…)
Ships with ties to Iran have so far had a better time getting into the Persian Gulf than out, possibly pointing to the difficulty the U.S. Navy might have in determining where a vessel is heading before it arrives. (…)
Military and shipping analysts said the movements showed how operators of shadow ships were trying to test the limits of the blockade and probing to see whether the U.S. would take action to enforce the closure.
“I think that they’re trying to push the envelope to see. Is the U.S. going to really go the whole measure here,” said Bryan Clark, a former senior official with the U.S. Navy and now a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute. (…)
“How many ships are going to test the blockade? Does the Navy have enough ships, aircraft, assets, et cetera to keep up with that?” said Wills.
Windward (my emphasis):
[On April 14] A total of 19 vessels transited the Strait, including 5 inbound and 14 outbound crossings. Outbound traffic included two tankers flagged to Malawi and the Netherlands, one Panama-flagged bulk carrier, and eleven cargo vessels, including five Iran-flagged, four Comoros-flagged, one India-flagged, and one Oman-flagged vessel. (…)
On 15 April 2026, 15 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz — 8 inbound, 7 outbound.
Five of the 8 inbound vessels are flagged to high-risk or sanctions-associated registries — Angola, Netherlands Caribbean (×2), Malawi, and Comoros — all classified as High smuggling risk.
Taken together, these cases show that the blockade is influencing vessel decisions in real time, but without consistent outcomes. Monitoring vessels that have not yet completed transit will be critical, as their progression, reversal, or disruption will define the next phase of enforcement behavior. (…)
Vessel behavior confirms a fragmented response to the blockade. Turnarounds, drifting, dark activity, and coastal routing all indicate hesitation and real-time adaptation rather than uniform compliance. (…)
The U.S. blockade is beginning to shape vessel behavior without yet fully constraining movement.
Centcom’s releases don’t verify with independent data…
Pentagon Approaches Automakers, Manufacturers to Boost Weapons Production Senior defense officials have talks with GM, Ford and others about shifting some capacity
The Trump administration wants automakers and other American manufacturers to play a larger role in weapons production, reminiscent of a practice used during World War II.
Senior defense officials have held talks about producing weapons and other military supplies with the top executives of several companies, including Mary Barra, chief executive officer of General Motors, and Jim Farley, CEO of Ford Motor, according to people familiar with the discussions. (…)
The Defense Department “is committed to rapidly expanding the defense industrial base by leveraging all available commercial solutions and technologies to ensure our warfighters maintain a decisive advantage,” a Pentagon official said.
The discussions are the latest by the administration to put military manufacturing on what Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has called a “wartime footing.” (…)
A short pause here to let you absorb this…
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Has the Era of the Mega-Layoff Arrived? From Snap to Block to Amazon, a new template for ‘right sizing’ the workforce is spreading through C-suites—and other companies are taking note
Snap is laying off 16% of its staff. Block lopped off 40% of its workforce. Oracle, meanwhile, is shedding thousands of employees, after Amazon.com cut about 30,000 in a matter of months.
Welcome to the era of the mega-layoff. In Silicon Valley and beyond, companies that are cutting staff are doing it with a big ax. Instead of laying off people in more incremental—and less disruptive—waves, employers are seizing on the potential financial upsides of severing swaths of their workforces at once. (…)
Behind the scenes at Block, something else happened: Leaders from across the corporate world messaged the payments company’s top executives, asking for the playbook on how they might replicate such sweeping cuts at their own companies, said Amrita Ahuja, Block’s chief financial officer and chief operating officer.
“We had people kind of coming out of the woodwork,” Ahuja said in an interview. Asked if she saw Block’s layoffs of 40% of its workforce as a new template, she said: “It’s an inevitability. As a CFO, I think it’s better to be a little bit early than to be too late here.” (…)
“Most companies, if not all, could cut 30% to 50% of their workforce at any time and see no material difference in performance,” said Mo Koyfman, founder of the venture-capital firm Shine Capital and a former executive at the media company IAC.
Sure, artificial intelligence has made some work processes more efficient, allowing for fewer people in some departments, he said. But “it also has given air cover, more importantly, to execute on the right sizing that you probably needed to do a long time ago.” (…)
Regardless of the why, executives said, companies are finding a way to slash jobs and are being rewarded by investors for it.
“Others are going to follow suit,” said Beth Steinberg, a veteran human-resources executive who has spent much of her career at technology companies. “A few companies will do it, they’ll get praise.” That, she said, will encourage other leadership teams to “come back to their companies and be like, ‘We have to do huge layoffs.’” (…)
He predicts many tech companies will cut teams by 20% to 50% by the end of 2026, if only because he is watching coding tools like Anthropic’s Claude Code and OpenAI’s Codex advance so rapidly. (…)
And while much of the pain has been in the tech sector, job cuts are also happening in warehousing, logistics and other industries that ramped up hiring during the Covid era, said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. (…)
- The BLS Layoffs and Discharges data has been creeping up but, through February, is not spiking upwards.
- Indeed Job Postings had stabilized since November but have turned downward in March (through March 27):
- The March 2026 Challenger Report, though titled “March Cuts Rise 25% From February, AI Leads Reasons” is not alarming overall:
In the first quarter, employers announced 217,362 job cuts, down 16% from the 259,948 recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, and down 56% from the 497,052 cuts announced in the first quarter of 2025.
Technology announced 18,720 job cuts in March for a total of 52,050 in 2026. That is an increase of 40% from the 37,097 cuts in this sector announced in the same period last year. It is the highest year-to-date total for the sector since 2023 when 102,391 Technology cuts were recorded.
More layoffs are likely to come from Technology companies in 2026. Last month’s total was made up primarily on a workforce reduction at Dell Inc., according to their latest annual filing. Oracle reportedly began layoffs late last month, though the company has not released a total figure. Meta, meanwhile, is undergoing layoffs in its Reality Labs division as it focuses on pivoting to artificial intelligence.
“Companies are shifting budgets toward AI investments at the expense of jobs. The actual replacing of roles can be seen in Technology companies, where AI can replace coding functions. Other industries are testing the limits of this new technology, and while it can’t replace jobs completely, it is costing jobs,” said Challenger.
In March, Artificial Intelligence (AI) led all reasons for job cuts, with 15,341 announced during the month, 25% of total cuts.
So far in 2026, AI ranks fifth year-to-date with 27,645 cuts, or roughly 13% of all job cut plans.
In 2025, companies referenced AI for 54,836 announced layoff plans, 5% of total cuts during the year.
So, yes, AI-related job losses are gaining in importance, but mainly because non-AI related losses are declining.
JOB CUT ANNOUNCEMENTS
Hiring plans rose 157% in March to 32,826 from 12,755 in February. They are up 149% from the 13,198 hiring plans in March 2025.
So far this year, employers have announced plans to hire 50,887 workers, down 6% from 53,867 new hires announced during the same period in 2025.
The US labor market is at near-stalled speed which makes AI a nice headline grabber. But stats are no confirming “a new era of mega layoffs” so far.
EMPLOYMENT YoY%
The Fed’s Beige Book: “Labor markets held steady, with employment flat to slightly up in most districts, a marginal improvement from March’s more mixed picture. Wages remained modest to moderate across all districts, with no acceleration or deceleration reported.”
U.S. Import Prices Rise Less Than Expected in March Overall import prices rose 0.8% in March
Overall import prices rose 0.8% in March, slightly lower than the downwardly revised 0.9% increase in February, the data showed.
Year-on-year prices were up 2.1%, the BLS said.
Petroleum import prices increased 9.4% as the war in Iran drove crude oil prices sharply higher. Prices for nonpetroleum imports were up 0.1%, the BLS data showed.
“Less than expected”, but up 2.1% nonetheless, +2.6% ex-petroleum, and rising
Quarterly at annual rates (Import prices exclude duties, such as tariffs imposed on imports by the Trump administration, as well as transportation costs.)
The Fed’s Beige Book: “The most consequential shift from the March Beige Book is the energy price shock now hitting the economy. Higher energy costs are adding to residual tariff pressures, and an acceleration in input costs was universal across all districts. Selling price growth is lagging input cost increases, compressing margins. The short-term inflation picture has clearly worsened.”
German Companies Increasingly Favor Asia Over US Investments
Fewer German companies are investing in the US due to President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and instead shift their focus to China and other Asian countries, according to a survey by industry lobby group DIHK.
Among around 1,700 manufacturers polled, 44% said they planned to invest in the US, four percentage points less than in the 2025 survey and the first significant decline since the Covid-19 pandemic, the DIHK said Thursday.
China was a declared investment target for 34% of respondents, up from 31%, while the figure for the entire Asia-Pacific region jumped by five percentage points to 26%.
“The trade dispute with the US is fueling uncertainty and leading companies to postpone decisions,” said Volker Treier, DIHK’s head of foreign trade. In Asia, firms are increasingly moving to both produce and sell their products in local markets, particularly in China and India, he said. (…)
Trump and His Federal Reserve Vendetta Firing Jay Powell would delay Kevin Warsh’s confirmation and nominee’s reform agenda.
If Mr. Powell doesn’t leave when his term as Chair ends on May 15, “I’ll have to fire him,” the President said, adding “I’ve wanted to fire him, but I hate to be controversial.” Who knew? His Administration manufactured the criminal probe with no evidence of criminal wrongdoing over the Fed renovation to bully Mr. Powell into stepping down.
Instead, Mr. Powell has dug in and promised not to step down from the Fed board until the probe is concluded. His term as a governor (unlike his four-year term as Chair) doesn’t end until January 2028. That means he can stay on the board for another two years if he wants. Mr. Trump knows this, which may be why he’s threatening to fire Mr. Powell.
There he goes again. President Trump on Wednesday renewed his threat to fire Jerome Powell if the Federal Reserve Chair doesn’t sail into the sunset when his term as Chairman ends next month. His threat may be bluster, but it’s also self-destructive. Readers may have noticed this is becoming a presidential habit. (…)
By the way, Mr. Trump’s new East Wing ballroom is exceeding its initial projections. Is that a sign of Presidential incompetence? (…)
The best way to replace Mr. Powell is to drop the pretextual Justice investigation and get Mr. Warsh confirmed. Why is this so hard for the President to understand?
Why?