The enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it’s the illusion of knowledge (Stephen Hawking)

It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so (Mark Twain)

Invest with smart knowledge and objective odds

THE DAILY EDGE: 14 JUNE 2021

US Treasuries have best week in a year Government bond prices rise and yields tumble despite strongest inflation reading in 13 years

(…) “I didn’t anticipate the kind of decline in nominal yields that we’ve seen,” Summers told “Wall Street Week” with David Westin on Bloomberg Television. “I’m surprised. I would have expected that yields would have risen more.” (…)

“Monetary policy has been getting steadily easier through this year even as the economy’s booming,” Summers said. “That defies good sense.” (…)

He noted rapid expansion in the economy and consumer demand, reports of labor shortages, a housing market that’s “on fire” and the warnings of company purchasing managers as reasons to worry.

“It’s going to lead to problems and the sooner we recognize that, the better it will be,” he said.

Leaders of the Group of Seven rich nations were in broad agreement about the need to continue supporting their economies with fiscal stimulus after the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic, a source familiar with the discussions said on Friday.

The backing for more stimulus was shared by all leaders including Angela Merkel of Germany which has traditionally opposed heavy borrowing to spur growth, a position it has relaxed in the face of the COVID-19 crisis.

The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has been pushing its allies to keep on spending with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urging her G7 colleagues in February to “go big”.

“There was broad consensus across the table on continued support for fiscal expansion at this stage,” the source said, adding that Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Italy’s Mario Draghi expressed particular support.

The International Monetary Fund has repeatedly urged Group of Seven countries and others to continue fiscal support measures. (…)

“There was a bit of discussion on inflation but the feeling was that it was temporary,” the source said. (…)

RECOVERY WATCHTSA Travel Throughput as of June 11, 2021

(Horan Advisors)

unnamed - 2021-06-13T064808.841

(…) Manufacturing and shipping delays have pushed back delivery times across the industry by months. That has put a limit on the ability of many manufacturers to capitalize on demand. IKEA is short of some furniture at certain U.S. stores, and a Design Within Reach promotion offers discounts on purchases of items in stock. (…)

Demand hasn’t let up. Consumer spending on furniture and appliances in the first quarter of this year remains nearly 30% above that time frame in 2019, before the pandemic began, according to federal data. (…)

“Our open orders are way beyond what we can actually produce right now,” said Bell Vice President Judy Bell. (…)

Wood-Products also got Room & Board to agree to raise the wholesale prices it pays for Wood-Products furniture, in part to account for record lumber prices. Room & Board said it wouldn’t change prices from those listed in its catalog. (…)

  • From Thor Industries’ latest quarterly results:

“We continue to see robust demand for our RVs and see no signs of demand slowing even as the economy recovers from the pandemic. The most recent RVIA forecast projects total North American wholesale RV shipments of approximately 576,100 units in calendar year 2021, representing an increase of 33.8% over 2020.

Demand in the market remains very high, such that our recent deliveries to dealers are being sold at retail very quickly and are therefore not increasing dealer inventory
levels. Currently, independent RV dealer inventories are at historically low levels in North America and we believe the restocking cycle will take a number of quarters to complete. In the longer-term, which we define as late calendar 2022 and beyond, we expect to get back to a more normal ordering cycle where dealers order to replenish sold stock, and we anticipate that demand will continue to exceed historical norms even after dealer inventories are restocked. (…)

This increasing consumer demand has driven our order backlog to more than $14 billion at the end of the quarter and includes units that will be needed to restock depleted dealer inventories. (…)

While we reported excellent results, the supply chain continues to be a constraint for the RV industry and THOR Industries alike, limiting our ability to further increase production to meet increased levels of dealer demand.

 image image

THE INFLATION DEBATE

On May 18, I published THE INFLATION DEBATE: JFK, LBJ, JOE AND JAY, highlighting how the current economic, financial and political situation resembled the mid-1960’s. Last week, the WSJ had an essay by Jon Hilsenrath making the same parallel. And Joseph Carson added his own angle. Good reads.

(…) The mid-1960s started out looking like the old pattern. Consumer prices started rising as President Johnson sought to fund the Vietnam War and his Great Society social programs. But as the war ground on, so did creeping inflation. “They didn’t do anything about it,” Mr. Cecchetti said.

When Richard Nixon entered the White House in 1969, the annual inflation rate had already risen to 5%, from less than 2% during the Kennedy administration. What followed was more than a decade of mismanagement by Republicans, Democrats and a supporting cast at the Federal Reserve, a critical institution that was supposed to be apolitical. (…)

Hilsenrath describes how inflation crept in thanks to various policy errors and a weak and political Fed, magnifying the effects of excessive monetary stimulation.

(…) Mr. Bosworth said he suspects policy makers will ultimately conclude they pumped too much money into the economy in response to the pandemic. Will we see Americans in the streets again protesting out-of-control prices? Not if policy makers heed the lessons of the past.

My own conclusion was:

If Janet Yellen moved from the Fed chair to Treasury Secretary, one could say that Jerome Powell has set a foot in each job. Such dynamic duo of very similarly noble minds is likely to test the historical and necessary independence of the Federal Reserve. But rest assured, Powell wrote to Senator Rick Scott on April 8, 2021

“We understand well the lessons of the high inflation experience in the 1960s and 1970s, and the burdens that experience created for all Americans. We do not anticipate inflation pressures of that type, but we have the tools to address such pressures if they do arise.”

Interest rates being where they are, Powell must know he will need teamwork if “we” need to “address such pressures if they do arise”. But he may be underappreciating the importance of 2022 and 2024 in the Democrat politicians’ agenda.

As William McChesney Martin learned, “you can’t abolish the law of supply and demand. That is a law we must reckon with always, for whenever we ignore the working of the market we do so at our peril, and ultimately must pay the piper.”

Consumer price inflation is experiencing its most significant increases in decades. Yet, reported inflation does not capture the full scale and breadth of experienced inflation. I never thought the US would experience rampant inflation again, but based on the 1970s price measurement methods, the US experienced double-digit inflation in the past twelve months. (…)

Over the last several decades, reported inflation has seen substantive measurement changes. For example, government statisticians now employ an arbitrary and non-market price for owner’s rent, removing actual housing prices from the calculation. Other substantive changes in the CPI occurred in the mid-1990s following the Congress-sponsored Boskin report, which purportedly shaved 50 to 100 basis points off of reported core CPI each year.

Adjusting reported inflation for those exclusions or changes would result in double-digit gains in both headline and core CPI for the past twelve months. What’s worse, knowing consumer prices are running at a double-digit pace, or not knowing actual inflation is that high?

Denying that the current inflation cycle is nothing more than a base effect and is, therefore, “transitory” brings back memories of the 1970s. In the 1970s, Federal Reserve Chair Arthur Burns denied that monetary policy played a role in the inflation cycle. Mr. Burns argued that higher inflation was due to idiosyncratic factors, such as food shortages and the OPEC oil embargo.

The Fed Chair demanded that the Fed staff strip out the volatile food and energy components to prove his point, thereby creating what is now called the core inflation index. That proved to be a policy blunder as it allowed Mr. Burns to maintain an easy money policy that fueled the most significant and most extended inflation cycle in the post-war period.

In recent decades, regional branches of the Federal Reserve have created new price conventions (e.g., median cpi, trimmed cpi). These price measures are misleading as they eliminate the tails in the distribution of prices. And during price cycles, the price tail for items rising a lot is much larger in scale than those at the bottom.

Once inflation cycles start, they gain momentum on their own. That is because price cycles force changes in firms’ pricing, ordering, inventory policies, and workers’ wage demands. (…)

Inflation cycles end badly, even when everyone is aware of the problem. Investors are the biggest fans of the “doing nothing” approach of the current generation of policymakers. Yet, if past inflation cycles are a guide to the future, investors will soon become the Fed’s loudest critics.

The U.S. Department of Commerce has a little known stat, “Market-based PCE”, “a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures”, i.e. excluding imputed prices. The BLS does not have a similar measure in its CPI data.

image

Market-based PCE inflation has accelerated sharply this year, from 1.2% annualized in the last 4 months of 2020 to 5.2% during the first 4 months of 2021 and 6.2% during the most recent 2 months (May data will be released at the end of June). Core Market-based PCE is up 4.3% a.r. since December 2020 and also +6.2% a.r. in the last 2 months.

  • Survey says: the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business last week released a poll of 38 top economists who reacted to the following statement: “The current combination of U.S. fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged higher inflation.”

A very normal curve: 30% agreed, 24% disagreed and 46% were uncertain with their respective confidence level roughly the same (only 4% strongly disagreed).

Markit’s PMI Input Price Index suggests that the CPI could soon reach 6% YoY. Let’s hope it does not happen because it would mean a +1.5% MoM surge in June’s headline CPI, last seen in August 1973 (+1.8%). Note that May was the worst of the base effect. In both June and July 2020, headline CPI rose 0.5% MoM (core: +0.24% and +0.54%).

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Retiring Workers Alter Fed’s Calculus on Jobs Shortfall Shrinking labor force lowers the bar for when monetary stimulus can be dialed back

Federal Reserve officials have long said a key condition for raising interest rates is a return to maximum employment. Their evolving views about how much job growth that will entail could lead them to roll back support for the economy sooner than previously expected. (…)

The Fed has never put a number on its full employment target. Still, central bankers for months have compared current employment to the number of jobs in February 2020, before the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, to illustrate the ground that needed to be made up. Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this year that gap was “one way of counting it.” In May, the shortfall stood at 7.6 million jobs. (…)

The Fed believes many factors holding back the labor force are tied to the pandemic and will fade later this year.

But one might not: The 2.6 million people who retired since February 2020, according to estimates from the Dallas Fed. A steadily aging U.S. population suggests limited scope for reversing that trend, some economists say.

“The number of people who left the labor force through retirement was higher during this pandemic recession-recovery than in previous recession-recoveries,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said June 4 on CNBC. “Typically, when people retire, they don’t come back into the labor force.” (…)

Because of the retirement wave, Ms. Mester said she is focusing more closely on participation in the labor force by people who are of prime working years, ages 25 to 54. (…)

If officials become convinced that the economy is destined to operate with lower rates of labor-force participation than before, they could start to tighten policy sooner than expected. (…)

“The spike in retirements may well moderate in a stronger economy, as we saw in the year or two before the pandemic,” the Fed’s vice chairman for supervision, Randal Quarles, said May 26. But, he added, “We may need additional public communications about the conditions that constitute substantial further progress since December toward our broad and inclusive definition of maximum employment.”

That was my point on June 7:

But the Fed’s goals may require reconsideration. There is clearly a supply problem, particularly in the 55+ age group which accounts for 2 million of the 7.6 million missing workers and which has shown no inclination to re-enter the workforce.

fredgraph - 2021-06-05T071420.268

And if, like Miss Mester, we focus on the 25-54 age group, we find these facts:

  • this group’s employment is still down 4.0% from its February 2020 level, 4.1 million people;
  • men and women are down by the same percentage and number, 2.0M people each;
  • the number of 25-54 unemployed remains 2.2M above its Feb. 2020 level;
  • but another 2.3M have actually left the labor force.

Remarkably, while the participation rate of the 55+ group remains at its cycle low, that of the other age groups has not increased after its spring 2020 bump up.

fredgraph - 2021-06-14T061722.194

It’s not because of a lack of jobs:

fredgraph - 2021-06-14T062714.210

Given all these available jobs and the re-opening of the economy, particularly the service economy, we should see a rapid increase in employment during the next 4 months as the pandemic unemployment programs expire.

In February 2020, there were 7.0 million job openings and 3.1 million unemployeds. There are currently 2.3 million more openings and 2.2 million more unemployeds as well as 2.3 million more people “not in the labor force”. Then consider that 2.6 million people have since presumably retired for good. Is there a Tinder app for jobs?

This a.m.:

In March, the last time they released quarterly economic forecasts, most officials expected to keep the Fed’s benchmark interest rate near zero through 2023 to encourage the economy’s recovery from the pandemic. Officials are set to release updated projections Wednesday after a two-day policy meeting. (…)

For inflation to meet officials’ March forecasts, prices would have to not only stop rising but fall over the rest of the year. Barclays Bank PLC now expects annual inflation, measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge, to hit 3.6% in the fourth quarter—nearly double the central bank’s target.

Fed officials’ individual March projections, charted in their so-called dot-plot, showed all 18 policy makers expected to leave interest rates unchanged through this year. Four expected to start lifting rates next year, and seven projected that rates would be higher by the end of 2023. (…)

JPMorgan Chase chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said he now expects the dot-plot to show a median expectation of a rate increase in 2023.

“We are also bringing forward our expectations for liftoff to late 2023,” he said in a note Friday. (…)

Fed officials’ updated forecasts are also likely to show they expect the economy to grow faster this year than the 6.5% they projected in March. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC economists estimate growth of 7.7% this year, helping to push inflation to 3.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier.

At a recent conference, former Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher said that “there is a little rebellion taking place within the FOMC as we speak.” Some members are getting very uncomfortable inside the little corner they have painted themselves in. If inflation proves that it is not transitory, “then the weed of inflation grows and kills the garden. That’s the risk position they’ve put themselves in right now.”

Powell has told us to forget the pre-emptive Fed, that the FOMC is now in reactionary mode, needing to see actual data before changing course. And this Fed has become more socially/politically minded, targeting low unemployment for certain ethnic/racial groups, etc..

Yet, nobody told us that monetary policy no longer operates with a lag.

Investors have a lot of faith in this Fed, and in the Powell put. And the Fed knows that, knows that it needs to move carefully, i.e. slowly. But how slow can you be if inflation runs wilder than you expect, if the economy grows faster than you think, if wages rise more than expected?

Let’s pray.

(…) We tend to think in terms of narratives (as Robert Shiller told us last week), and it’s easy to pick the right data to support your pre-existing deflationary or inflationary narrative. The [new Authers’] Indicators will attempt to guard against this and force us to look at the balance of the evidence.

(…) we are presenting the [35] indicators as a heat map, with each square determined by its Z-score for the last 10 years. In other words, they will be colored according to how far they are from the average for the last decade (in which everyone grew accustomed to a “low-flationary” paradigm). A Z-score above 2 implies that a measure is higher than it was for 95% of the time over the last decade. Much higher numbers suggest a clear and present danger of inflation. (…)

relates to The Inflation Scare Is More Heat Than Light So Far

So what this tells us, is that official measures of inflation are flashing alarm (after May’s very high numbers), and that surveys of consumers and businesses also suggest elevated concerns. Beyond that, there is little reason for anxiety. (…)

(…) Mr. Rosenberg said that, frankly, anyone trying to place a firm bet on the inflation numbers or any other economic data in this pandemic is playing with fire. The COVID-19 crisis has made many traditional economic indicators pretty hard to read and anticipate, much less predict. (…)

“We’re in a bog of uncertainty, and intense volatility, as it pertains to all the data,” he said. “To be drawing hard-core assumptions on the future, based on what we’re seeing right now, I think is a dangerous proposition.”

Confused smile

(…) “There’s only so much anybody’s going to pay for a plastic trash can or a drapery rod,” Mr. Mandelbaum says. “We don’t want to lose our relationship with the customer. We don’t want to lose our space on the shelf. And so we’ll work for no money for the rest of the year.”

At South Shore Furniture, a family-owned furnishings manufacturer headquartered in Sainte-Croix, Que., president Jean Laflamme says his three factories were on the verge of shutting down recently because the company had trouble getting metal drawer guides, handles and other specialized pieces it typically sources from China. He is now ordering enough stock to last six months instead of the usual three and has also had to import things by plane.

“We’re fighting like the devil in holy water to find suppliers in other countries that can help us,” says Mr. Laflamme. “It’s an ongoing fight. Every day we find a new problem somewhere.”

The appetite for South Shore’s furniture and decor has rarely been stronger, but the company can’t meet the demand, he adds. His team has been forced to slow down production at times in recent weeks to make sure they have enough parts and materials, and they’ve now decided to refocus on a smaller number of products they can crank out with consistency.

Companies that will be most successful in weathering this storm are those with the financial capacity to stock inventory and parts in advance, according to Mr. Laflamme. On the flip side, those with tight cash flows and limited access to credit will be particularly vulnerable. The smallest businesses with no experience navigating the whims of spot-market freight costs might not survive. (…)

Still, the company says ongoing supply-chain constraints will continue to undermine retail sales growth in the months ahead, particularly as it relates to the availability of certain raw materials. BRP’s biggest problem now is the same one hitting car makers, consumer electronics companies and sectors from biomedicine to telecommunications: It can’t get enough semiconductor chips.

Rather than cutting production, BRP is maintaining output for its Sea-Doos, Ski-Doos and Can-Am brand all-terrain vehicles, and setting aside any models with missing components for final finishing later on. (…)

“This is a complete reset of the whole industry,” says Mr. Boisjoli. “Dealers are cleaning out used inventory, new inventory. [Manufacturers] are doing the same. And all of us have a chance to do things better going forward than the system we had before.” (…)

The paradox is stark: At a time when many companies are generating some of their highest-ever sales, the money isn’t flowing to the bottom line. At Umbra, sales surged 40 per cent last year to roughly $200-million, and they’re up 82 per cent so far this year through May, according to Mr. Mandelbaum. Profit, however, is down 34 per cent as costs eat away at earnings. (…)

TECHNICALS WATCH

Amid the hated discussions about the economy, profits, inflation and valuation, smart technical analysis has been a good guide throughout these totally uncharted waters. Lowry’s Research remains my favorite source for technical analysis, followed closely by CMG Wealth’s generous blog.

Last week’s action finally resolved to the upside stocks’ uncertain behavior of the last several weeks but low demand intensity prevents a clear all-out buy signal.

spy

Small caps have had a strong rally since mid-May but they have yet to break above their mid March highs with greater demand conviction.

iwm

The same can be said for NDX:

ndx

The NYFANG Index retraced to its 100dma but it has yet to break its lower highs line. (Components: BABA, AMZN, AAPL, BIDU, FB, GOOG,NFLX, NVDA, TSLA, TWTR)

nyfang

The volatility on AMZN during the last year is amazing, particularly the convergence of its moving averages and the recent decline in its 200dma.

amzn

A flat stock while sales and cashflow per share jump 55% and 50% respectively has to get valuation down. AMZN’s price/CF is near the low end of its 23-45 range since 2008 while cashflow margins at near historical highs. Historically cheap even though biz remains really strong. On the other hand, 28x cashflow is nowhere cheap. Just FYI. (Chart from CPMS/Morningstar)

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But back to small caps. The end of June is when the Russell 2000 gets “rebalanced”, so to speak. Bloomberg’s Tracy Alloway explains:

As the value of certain meme stocks jumps at key times, those companies are going to be included in benchmark indexes tracked by passive investors who are actively trying to avoid making big bets.

As Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify and a former Odd Lots guest (you can listen to him here), told me this week:

“The indexers just do what they’re programmed to do—buy in proportion to market cap. The assumption is always ‘the market is right.’

So meme stocks simply become a way of exploiting the passive algorithms. You can make Melvin cover their shorts AND make Vanguard and BlackRock buy…kinda genius short-term, but very damaging to capital allocation long-term.

SPACs (like Lordstown) are a little more ‘gross.’ They exploit a loophole in index methodology called “fast-track inclusion.”

If they come in adequate size and with adequate float (increased by the PIPE), they can result in index inclusion in as few as five days versus 6-12 months for a traditional IPO.”

A good example of this dynamic is taking place this month in the form of the Russell 2000’s annual reconstitution exercise, which is set to be affected by the surge in certain meme stocks including AMC. Some on WallStreetBets are also salivating about the prospect of both Clover Health and Lordstown being included in the revamped index. “RIDE skyrockets, shorts are f—-d, covering happens, frenzy begins. the week of June 27th WILL BE NUTS,” said one Redditor.

Veteran short-seller Mike Wilkins used less colorful language in his recent 28-page letter to investors, summarized by Institutional Investor this week, but the sentiment was the same. Benchmark index inclusion is turning into a convenient way for meme stocks to find new bagholders:

“While the bulk of Wilkins’ letter looked back in great detail, he noted that the rebalancing of the Russell 2000 at the end of June ‘is going to be a doozy.’

Wilkins is predicting a 30% turnover. ‘The rebalance is done by ranking U.S. stocks almost solely by market capitalization,’ he explained, and ‘since last June’s rebalance, many penny stock silverfish have grown their market values substantially.’

‘Greater fools will arrive in late June,’ he warned, ‘wallets dangling from back pockets.’”

So the Russell 2000 chart shown above could inherit a very different allure post “rebalancing”.

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(Chart of the Day)

House Bills Seek to Break Up Amazon, Big Tech Companies Lawmakers proposed a raft of bipartisan legislation aimed at reining in Big Tech, including a bill that seeks to make the e-commerce giant and others split into two companies or shed some of their products and services.

The bills, announced Friday, amount to the biggest congressional broadside yet on a handful of technology companies—including Alphabet Inc.’s GOOG -0.30% Google, Apple Inc. AAPL 0.98% and Facebook Inc. FB -0.36% as well as Amazon AMZN -0.08% —whose size and power have drawn growing scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators in the U.S. and Europe.

If the bills become law—a prospect that faces significant hurdles—they could substantially alter the most richly valued companies in America and reshape an industry that has extended its impact into nearly every facet of work and life.

One of the proposed measures, titled the Ending Platform Monopolies Act, seeks to require structural separation of Amazon and other big technology companies to break up their businesses. It would make it unlawful for a covered online platform to own a business that “utilizes the covered platform for the sale or provision of products or services” or that sells services as a condition for access to the platform. The platform company also couldn’t own businesses that create conflicts of interest, such as by creating the “incentive and ability” for the platform to advantage its own products over competitors. (…)

The proposed legislation would need to be passed by the Democratic-controlled House as well as the Senate, where it would likely also need substantial Republican support.

Each of the bills has both Republicans and Democrats signed onto it, with more expected to join, congressional aides said. Seven Republicans are backing the bills, with a different group of three signing on to each measure, according to a person familiar with the situation. (…)

Rep. Ken Buck (R., Col.), the panel’s top Republican, said he supports the bill because it “breaks up Big Tech’s monopoly power to control what Americans see and say online, and fosters an online market that encourages innovation.” (…)

Gaining sufficient Republic support for the bills will be an uphill battle: While Republicans are concerned about technology companies’ power, many are skeptical about changing antitrust laws. Even if they pass, the laws could take years to implement as federal agencies try to enforce them over the companies’ likely legal objections.

“The fact that there is day-one support from Republican antitrust leaders suggests these bills are definitely in the doable range,” said Paul Gallant, an analyst with Cowen & Co. “But the gap between sounding tough at a hearing and actually voting for a breakup is significant. I do wonder if these bills can get to 60 [votes] in the Senate.” (…)

While the bills don’t name any companies, only Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google currently meet the parameters laid out in those bills, according to the person familiar with the matter. (…)

G-7 Poised to Counter China’s Effort to Gain Worldwide Influence
China’s New Power Play: More Control of Tech Companies’ Troves of Data Beijing is calling on tech giants to share the huge amounts of personal information they collect—and asserting its authority over data held by U.S. companies operating there as well. The efforts are part of Xi Jinping’s push to rein in the country’s increasingly powerful technology sector and use it to his party’s advantage.
THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Lordstown Shares Plunge After CEO Steve Burns Resigns, Company Admits “Inaccurate” Pre-Order Disclosures

THE DAILY EDGE: 11 JUNE 2021: …flation

U.S. Inflation Is Highest in 13 Years as Prices Surge 5% Consumer prices continued to rise rapidly in May as the economic recovery picked up, reflecting a surge in demand along with shortages of labor and materials.

(…) The core-price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, jumped 3.8% in May from the year before—the largest increase for that reading since June 1992.

Consumers are seeing higher prices for many of their purchases, particularly big-ticket items such as vehicles. Prices for used cars and trucks leapt 7.3% from the previous month, driving one-third of the rise in the overall index. The indexes for furniture, airline fares and apparel also rose sharply in May. (…)

Overall prices jumped at a 9.7% annualized rate over the three months ended in May. On a month-to-month basis, overall prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% and core prices rose 0.7%. (…)

Compared with two years ago, overall prices rose a more muted 2.5% in May. (…)

“The inflation pressure we’re seeing is significant,” General Mills Inc. Chief Executive Jeff Harmening said at a recent investor conference. “It’s probably higher than we’ve seen in the last decade.”

He and his peers point to transportation, commodity and labor costs all increasing at the same time. They expect the trend to continue for at least the rest of this year. As a result, General Mills, Campbell Soup Co. , Unilever PLC, J.M. Smucker Co. and other big food companies are raising prices. Some increases are already visible on supermarket shelves, and more are coming this summer. (…)

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. recently raised its menu prices by roughly 4% across many markets to help cover the costs of wage increases as well as higher commodity prices, Jack Hartung, chief financial officer, said at an investor conference earlier this week.

Some 48% of small businesses indicated that they raised average selling prices in May, the highest share since 1981, according to a survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business, a trade association. (…)

More data and comments:

  • The Cleveland Fed’s Median CPI rose 0.3% in May and is up at a 2.7% annualized rate in the last 4 months. The more restrictive 16% Trimmed-Mean CPI was up 0.4% for the second month in a row: +4.9% annualized, +3.7% over the last 4 months.

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  • The Atlanta Fed’s sticky-price consumer price index (CPI)—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly—increased 4.5 percent (on an annualized basis) in May, following a 5.5 percent increase in April. On a year-over-year basis, the series is up 2.7 percent. On a core basis (excluding food and energy), the sticky-price index increased 4.3 percent (annualized) in May, and its 12-month percent change was 2.6 percent. The flexible cut of the CPI—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively frequently—increased 18.7 percent (annualized) in May, and is up 12.4 percent on a year-over-year basis.

atlanta-fed_sticky-price-cpi (2)

But take the base effect out: 3-m annualized: Core-Sticky CPI: +4.6%; Core Flexible CPI: +33.7%:

atlanta-fed_sticky-price-cpi (3)

  • Another US CPI SHOCKER … or the market says not (Nordea)

As we have pointed to for quite some time, the upside risks to CPI remain for now and May CPI at 5.0% and core 3.8% were once again above economist consensus. But the whisper expectations were probably more in line and as long as the Fed doesn’t care, who does? Well, the market action in bonds clearly indicates that the bulk of investors that went short too late has to care. But what about inflation?

Used car prices increased an additional 7.2% m/m and there is probably more to come in June. Core CPI should surpass 4% y/y in June. We also continue to believe that the CPI effects from the combination of extremely low inventories and supply chain disruptions, and for that matter plenty of consumer money on the sideline, will be with us for longer than the consensus and the Fed seems to think.

US headline CPI y/y is about to peak but should stay at high level

That said, y/y CPI should drop back during July and August as base effects from oil prices and some other stuff drop out, which temporarily could make the transitory crowd cheer. It wouldn’t ease our inflation worries, however, since rents (with a 40% weight in core CPI) should take over as a primary driver in the autumn, probably pushing y/y core CPI to a new high in early 2022.

Rents should become the next CPI SHOCKER

Wouldn’t the Fed just simply also call the inventory and rent effects transitory as well? They could, but the Fed would then effectively have killed the CPI by rendering basically all components as “not being inflation”. We don’t think that is a particularly good idea and at some point the Fed should agree.

(…) “The intensity of the current inflation and the current bottlenecks in supply chains and labor markets is greater than I had anticipated,” said former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, adding that he still shares the central bank’s belief that the inflation pickup is temporary. “But it also could be that the underlying demand-supply balance will not correct as readily or as comfortably as the Fed and I had expected earlier. It’s got my inflation antenna quivering.” (…)

Julia Coronado, a former Fed economist and president of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC, said she doesn’t think recent inflation data call for the Fed to change course.

“These price pressures are very narrowly focused on things that seem like they will be obviously transitory,” Ms. Coronado said. “Think about this: We are at the most intense moment. It will not get more intense than this. We are reopening. We are blasting stimulus into the economy with a fire hose. We’ve got monetary policy at maximum stimulation.”

Mark Carney, a veteran central banker who led the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020 and the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, said he sees growing evidence that the tightness in the U.S. labor market and related price pressures could extend beyond the short term.

“The prospect of inflation being above target for longer than the makeup of the past undershoot—I think the balance of risks is headed in that direction at this stage,” Mr. Carney said in a Brookings Institution event Monday.

(…) On Thursday, when news broke that U.S. inflation climbed to 5% in May for the first time since 2008, yields on the key 10-year Treasury note moved in the opposite direction — falling to a three-month low of around 1.43%. And while bond-market gauges of expected inflation edged upward, they remained well short of this year’s high reached in May. (…)

In a report to clients after the May data came out, JPMorgan Chase & Co. economist Daniel Silver agreed that the drivers of higher inflation are still mostly temporary — but added that “there is some firming taking place away from these factors as well,” pointing in particular to increases in rents. (…)

Policy makers –- perhaps especially Vice Chairman Richard Clarida — are well aware that the bond market does not give a completely clear reading of expectations, even among investors. It can be muddied by trader positioning, liquidity and other issues. [including the Fed’s own manipulations].

(…) This chart from Dario Perkins of TS Lombard in London illustrates the extremity of the bond market nicely. It maps 10-year yields on the vertical scale, against core inflation. Usually, and unsurprisingly, higher inflation tends to mean higher bond yields. The current yield looks like a historic outlier. Arguably, bond yields have never been this tolerant of high inflation. As Perkins suggests in his title, bond markets are putting an awful lot of trust in central banks not to let inflation get going (which would damage longer-term bond returns):

    relates to What's Scarier Than the Inflation Scare? Markets

    (…) There is a good case that these inflation numbers will reduce before long. I would summarize the three main supports as follows:

    • Much of it is extreme inflation in reopening sectors
    • Commodity prices have already begun to turn over
    • Wages are still well under control

    (…) Suffice it to say that both bond and stock markets look very confident, probably too confident, that they are right.

  • Cheap Dollars Attract Foreign Investors to Treasurys The cheapest dollars in years are spurring a rise in foreign investment in U.S. government bonds at the same time that pension funds are boosting their holdings—and that demand pickup could weigh on Treasury rates.

The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, is down 2.9% this quarter so far and hovering close to the lowest level in about five months. The price of hedging dollars through forward rates also was the cheapest in at least six years last week and remains close by, according to analysis from Deutsche Bank. (…)

A 5-year debt sale on May 26 received the most bids from overseas investors since August at over 64%. A 7-year issuance in the same week saw the most since January. The latest data from the U.S. Treasury Department showed that major foreign investors upped their holdings of longer-maturity U.S. government bonds in March. (…)

Cash holdings have ballooned during Covid-19 lockdowns, with deposits at commercial banks in the U.S. sitting at a record $17.1 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve of St. Louis. Assets in money-market funds total $4.6 trillion, according to the Investment Company Institute, which is close to record levels. (…)

Forward rates, which are used to lock in an exchange rate at a certain point in the future and reduce the risk of currency fluctuations, are priced based on money-market rates and the difference between yields in the two currencies’ domestic short-term debt markets. The smaller the gap, the cheaper the trade—and that is just what has happened as the U.S. rates have come down.

“If you take a 10-year U.S. Treasury and you hedge with a three-month forward, the yield you get is around 0.9%,” said Althea Spinozzi, a fixed-income strategist at Saxo Bank.

That is higher than all European government bonds of the same maturity. Italy’s 10-year bond yield was 0.755% on Thursday. Japan’s equivalent bond yielded 0.659%. (…)

“We think the selloff in dollar rates will be slower and more gradual once we hit 2% for the 10-year. That is where we expect this to start kicking in, with flows from European and Japanese investors,” he said.

Another source of money flowing into Treasurys has been pension funds. Strong rallies in riskier assets, like stocks, in recent months helped to close the shortfall many funds have between the value of their assets and their liabilities, allowing them to move cash into safer assets, like bonds.

U.S. pension funds shifted nearly $90 billion of funds out of stocks and into fixed income during the first quarter of this year, $41 billion of which went into Treasurys, according to analysts at Bank of America. (…)

The Global Logistics Logjam Shifts to Shenzhen From Suez As Western economies roar back to life, a fresh wave of Covid-19 clusters in Asia—where vaccination campaigns remain in their early stages—is creating new bottlenecks in the global supply chain.

(…) Some ships have had to wait up to two weeks to take on cargo at Yantian, with roughly 160,000 containers waiting to be loaded, according to brokers. The price of shipping a 40-foot container to the West Coast of the U.S. has jumped to $6,341, according to the Freightos Baltic Index—up 63% since the start of the year and more than three times the price a year earlier.

Yantian handled nearly 50% more freight last year than the Port of Los Angeles—the busiest American container port—and in the first quarter of this year it saw container volume surge by 45% from a year earlier. Activity at the port, which handles more than 13 million containers a year, is now at 30% of normal levels and the delays could persist for several weeks, says Hua Joo Tan, a Singapore-based analyst at Liner Research Services.

Lars Mikael Jensen, head of network for A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the Danish shipping giant, said the backlog in Shenzhen would be felt globally, affecting goods sold at Walmart Inc. and Home Depot Inc., companies that have established logistics bases around the port. (…)

The blockage of the Suez Canal lasted a week and it took 10 days to clear the backlog, he said.

“Here there is no end in sight. The Chinese will keep everything closed until they are certain Covid won’t spread,” he said. (…)

At King Yuan Electronics Co. , one of [Taiwan]’s largest chip testing and packaging companies, more than 200 employees have tested positive for the virus this month, while another 2,000 workers have been placed in quarantine—cutting the company’s revenue this month by roughly a third.

Meanwhile, other semiconductor companies nearby have been grappling with their own workplace outbreaks, according to officials in Taiwan’s Miaoli county, where the recent clusters have been concentrated.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. , which alone accounts for 92% of the output of the world’s most sophisticated chips, says it has not yet been impacted, but the outbreak is happening next door to its headquarters in Hsinchu, Taiwan. (…)

All told, the Malaysia Semiconductor Industry Association says the lockdown will reduce output by between 15% and 40%.

“It will disrupt the supply chain, somewhere, somehow,” said Wong Siew Hai, the group’s president. (…)

Pointing up While shipping prices to the U.S. have surged, Mr. Zhu says most of his clients, including Amazon.com Inc. vendors and some American importers, are paying up.

Last year, many clients delayed shipping in the hope that the cost could come down. But that’s no longer the case,” said Mr. Zhu. “Most do not seem to care about prices anymore.” (…)

Old Steel Plants Stay Idle Despite Surging Prices Two of the nation’s largest steelmakers are keeping older mills closed, passing up a chance to sell more metal at record prices, because of the high cost of restarting and the threats to their survival from rivals’ new plants.

(…) The new mills are still months or years away from operating, but steel demand received an unexpected boost last year from supercharged purchases of cars, appliances and machinery during the pandemic. Supply-chain problems have since drained inventories of steel. Wait times for some deliveries from U.S. producers have stretched up to six months, according to steel users. Some customers said they are receiving partial shipments.

“This is the hardest time in the history of our company to procure metal,” said Jonathan Ulbrich, vice president of Ulbrich Stainless Steels & Special Metals Inc., a stainless-steel processor and distributor in Connecticut that has been in business since the 1920s.

(…) assembling the workforce, raw materials and transportation needed to rehabilitate idled blast furnaces is too expensive.

“That capacity is not coming back, and people need to stop talking about that capacity,” he said. (…)

While the U.S. is the world’s most-expensive steel market, steel prices are high overseas at the moment too, discouraging buyers in the U.S. from pursuing imports. Spot-market prices for hot-rolled coiled steel in Southeast Asia are $900 a metric ton, and the cost of a shipping container has more than doubled since the start of the year.

Imports, which typically make up about a quarter of the finished steel consumed in the U.S. annually, last year accounted for 18%, the lowest share since 2003, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute. So far this year, imports have been running at about the same rate, the trade group said. U.S. tariffs, high prices and growing demand for steel in foreign markets are holding down import volumes. (…)

fredgraph - 2021-06-11T061826.046

(…) Demand is so frenzied that U.S. mills have stopped taking orders from customers in recent weeks, according to Dan DeMare, director of sales at Heidtman Steel Products Inc. DeMare said the mills may not begin taking new orders until late summer so that they can clear backlogs.

In a global economy already shaken by supply shortages and inflation worries, the mills’ moves may signal more delivery snags and even higher prices for a commodity key to a wide swath of industries. Across the world, about 500 pounds of it is used per person each year, in everything from paper clips and automobiles to skyscrapers and toasters. (…)

Carl Harris, who has spent 36 years building homes, said he’s looking at two-month delays on refrigerators, ranges and dishwashers. Delivery times that are normally two to three weeks are now as much as half a year in many parts of the country, he said.

The lag means Harris can’t install the appliances package to market the two-bedroom empty-nester home in Newton, just outside Wichita, Kansas, even though the rest of the house is ready. He said other builders in the area are also having trouble getting plumbing fixtures, which have to be in place before a certificate of occupancy is issued. (…)

It’s also getting more expensive to drill in the shale patch as rising prices for steel, cement and other supplies and services lead to higher costs for explorers, according to Citigroup Inc. Steel prices for the drill pipe used in new wells could rise about 50% in 2021, Citigroup said.

Executives at Ford Motor Co. said on a first-quarter conference call that the company has seen commodity prices increase primarily for aluminum, steel and precious metals. It expects to see about a $2.5 billion increase in commodities from the second through fourth quarters, “so that’s going to hit us as we go through the rest of the year,” said John T. Lawler, Ford’s chief financial officer. (…)

U.S. steelmakers are expected to bring on about 4.6 million annual tons of production capacity by the end of 2022, an increase of about 4% from current levels. (…)

Oil demand to surpass pre-pandemic levels by end of 2022, says IEA Consumption expected to rebound by 5.4m barrels a day this year

(…) “In 2022 there is scope for the 24-member OPEC+ group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to ramp up crude supply by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) above its July 2021-March 2022 target,” it said in its monthly oil report. (…)

Meeting the restored demand is “unlikely to be a problem”, the IEA said, forecasting that OPEC+ will still have 6.9 million bpd of effective spare capacity after July and that Iran’s talks with world powers could free its oil supply from U.S. sanctions.

“If sanctions on Iran are lifted, an additional 1.4 million bpd could be brought to market in relatively short order.” (…)unnamed - 2021-06-11T075333.546

ECB to Keep Monetary Stimulus in Place Central bank upgraded its economic outlook for the eurozone

(…) The ECB said in a statement that it would keep its key interest rate at minus 0.5% and continue to buy eurozone debt under an emergency €1.85 trillion bond-buying program, equivalent to $2.2 trillion, through at least March 2022. It said it would buy those bonds at a “significantly higher pace” than during the first months of this year, repeating a pledge made in March. (…)

Ms. Lagarde said ECB officials had not yet discussed scaling down their bond purchases, saying such considerations were premature. In contrast, Federal Reserve officials have recently signaled they are getting ready to think about paring central bank stimulus at a policy meeting on June 15-16. (…)

The ECB said Thursday that it expects the eurozone economy to grow by 4.6% this year and 4.7% next year, compared with forecasts of 4% and 4.1% growth respectively in March. It expects inflation to reach 1.9% this year and 1.5% next year, up from earlier forecasts of 1.5% and 1.2% respectively.

Analysts said the ECB would likely need to shift course in the coming months and unveil plans to scale back its bond purchases to prevent the economy from overheating. That could happen after policy meetings in September or December, they said. (…)

Nordea also has a great comment on that:

  • MC Easy Bee is starting to sound like a broken record

As widely expected, nothing new came out of MC Easy Bee this week. The press conference could be summed up as unsurprisingly dovish. No changes to the PEPP plans yet. The inflation forecast was nudged higher, but we still find it too low. When COVID-19 problems are mostly behind us this autumn, we think the language will change and that MC Easy Bee will become much more comfortable with higher long-end yields. The ECB hawks will be back with a vengeance in September.

There has been some soft data in early Q2, retail sales and German industrial production being examples. We wouldn’t worry about the data softness. Google mobility data has actually been a good guide to the short-term gyrations in hard Euro-area data and currently it points to strong growth in both May and June.

Trust us, the softness in retail sales is transitory

When it comes to the industrial production numbers, it’s obviously not a demand problem since orders have surged. It’s instead seemingly mostly related to the chip shortage weighing on German car production.

Chip shortages behind weak German industrial production

It is also so that the labour market is improving more rapidly than the ECB has feared. Labour shortages are increasing again. Already before the economies have opened up, our wage model for the Euro area is actually indicating a historically quite high wage growth in 2022. Even if it doesn’t sound so now, MC Easy Bee will soon dance to a more upbeat rhythm, and tapering of PEPP is still likely this year.

Euro-area wage pressures on the way up?

All in all, neither Jay-P nor MC Easy Bee are yet ready to abandon the crisis stance, so they are sitting in a tree K-I-S-S-I-N-G. Interestingly, however, it seems that there is a growing consensus amongst former central bankers that it’s time to act. Bank of England’s Haldane is the most recent example, warning about a “dangerous moment” for central banks and that it would be a “bad mistake” not to quell the inflation impulses. Hear, hear, Haldane!

Fewer Young Men Are in the Labor Force. More Are Living at Home

Are young men living at home because they’re not working? Or are they not working because they’re living at home? Hard to say, but either way, the trends are clear: More American males aged 25-34 are living in a parent’s home, and fewer are participating in the labor force. Here are the charts:

More Young Men Are Living at Homeimage

(…) The Conference Board states unequivocally: “A growing percentage of young men without a bachelor’s degree [from 15% in 1995 to 25% this April] are living at home. This trend is contributing to a lower labor force participation.” (…)

“About half of prime age men who are not in the labor force may have a serious health condition that is a barrier to working,” the late Princeton economist Alan Krueger wrote in the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity in 2017.

Added Krueger: “Nearly half of prime age men who are not in the labor force take pain medication on any given day; and in nearly two-thirds of these cases, they take prescription pain medication.”

And yet, the 16-19Y cohort is back at work with a participation rate above its pre-pandemic level and substantially above its May 2019 level.

image

What Are the Odds? Even Experts Get Tripped Up by Probabilities People tend to rely on anecdotal evidence to make decisions, rather than considering the numbers

(…) According to the research of Ellen Peters, an expert in decision making at the University of Oregon and author of “Innumeracy in the Wild,” the lack of skill can have consequences for your wallet and your health. People who are less numerate adopt fewer healthy behaviors; they are 40% more likely to have a chronic disease; they end up in the hospital or emergency room more often; and they take 20% more prescription drugs, but are less able to follow complex health regimens.

Those who are good with numbers and confident in their ability fare better, Dr. Peters has found. And those who are bad with numbers but feel confident in their ability do the worst. (…)

Speaking of odds:

Image@RARohde