Edge and Odds

The enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it’s the illusion of knowledge (Stephen Hawking)

It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so (Mark Twain)

Edge and Odds

Invest with smart knowledge and objective odds

NEW$ & VIEW$ (5 NOVEMBER 2015): Fed up! Earnings Up!

Fed chief Yellen bullish on US economy Central bank chair indicates stage could be set for rate rise
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 59.1% in October

The October ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 59.1%, up from 56.9% in September. The employment index increased in October to 59.2%, up from 58.3% in September.

The New Orders Index registered 62 percent, 5.3 percentage points higher than the reading of 56.7 percent in September.


Auto From ISI: Vehicle sales increased at a +16.3% q/q a.r. in 3Q.  And October sales put 4Q up at a +6.6% q/q a.r.

UAW Warns of GM Strike United Auto Workers leaders are pressing members to ratify a proposed contract from General Motors after a handful of factories turned it down in initial rounds of voting, with union officials saying a costly strike is likely unavoidable if the deal fails.

(…) Workers at a number of components plants and four assembly plants approved the contract, but workers at two other assembly plants and one transmission plant have rejected it, leaving open the possibility that the UAW could see an offer rejected for a second time in this round of negotiations with Detroit’s auto makers. (…)

GM negotiators and UAW officials agreed to a deal in late October using the Fiat Chrysler contract as a template. GM, which is far bigger than Fiat Chrysler and more profitable, offered bigger signing bonuses and billions of dollars in product commitments to sweeten the deal. (…)

GM announces record China vehicle sales in October General Motors Co said vehicle sales in China rose 15 percent to a record monthly high in October, underpinned by the Chinese government’s decision to cut taxes for smaller cars.

The company said retail sales in the first 10 months of 2015 climbed 2.9 percent from a year earlier to 2.8 million units, also a record.

“The recently announced government incentive for vehicle purchases helped boost buying sentiment starting in October,” Matt Tsien, GM’s China President said in a press release published by the company on its website on Thursday.

China has introduced a slew of supportive policies, including halving the sales tax to 5 percent on cars with 1.6-litre engines or smaller, to boost auto sales. The changes came into effect from Oct 1.

Other major global automakers, including Japanese automotive manufacturer Honda also posted double-digit sales last month.

Automobiles in the 1.6 liter and under category account for nearly 70 percent of total sales in the country.

EU Nudges Up Growth Forecasts Low oil prices and easy money will boost European growth this year more than previously expected, the EU said, but it cautioned that a slowdown in emerging economies and increased global uncertainty could damp the positive momentum.

It’s been a long, long time since we last saw an upward revision! But wait, that was for 2015!

EU Cuts Growth and Inflation Outlook as ECB Decision Looms

The European Commission cut its euro-area growth and inflation outlook for next year, citing more challenging global conditions and fading impetus from lower oil prices and a weaker euro.

Gross domestic product in the 19-nation bloc is set to grow 1.8 percent in 2016, down from a previous projection of 1.9 percent in May, the Commission said in its autumn forecast published Thursday. Inflation is seen accelerating to 1.6 percent in 2017 from 0.1 percent this year.

German Manufacturing Gloom Deepens Orders drop for the third straight month as slower global growth weighs

German manufacturing orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and calendar effects, fell 1.7% in September from the previous month, amid a sharp drop in foreign demand, the economics ministry said Thursday.

In a sign of weakness, manufacturing orders in the third quarter were down 2.8% from the previous quarter as orders from outside the eurozone slumped 8.6%, the ministry said. By contrast, domestic orders rose 0.3% in this period.

Markit’s October German manufacturing PMI:

The final seasonally adjusted Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) fell slightly from September’s 52.3 to a three-month low
of 52.1 in October, thereby signalling a weaker improvement in manufacturers’ operating conditions. Nevertheless, the headline PMI has now remained
in expansion territory for 11 consecutive months.

The latest survey data highlighted a further rise in new business placed with German goods producers, thereby stretching the current period of continuous growth to 11 months. The pace of expansion was little-changed since September and above the long-run series average. New export orders also increased during the month. The rate of increase was only modest overall, however.

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JAPAN: Income tax receipts accelerated to +11% YoY, suggesting a consumer backdrop that is stronger than generally discussed. (ISI)

Indonesia’s GDP Grows 4.73% in Third Quarter 

Southeast Asia’s biggest economy grew 4.73% in the July-to-September period from a year earlier, compared with a 4.67% growth rate in the second quarter. The $800 billion economy grew 3.21% from the previous three months after a 3.78% expansion in the second quarter, the official Central Statistics Agency said Thursday. (…)

The statistics agency said government spending, one of the few immediate hopes for boosting growth, grew 6.56% in the third quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from 2.28% year over year in the second quarter. (…)

Household consumption, which accounted for 55% of the gross domestic products in the third quarter, grew 4.96% in the July-September period from a year earlier. It stayed steady from the 4.97% growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, investment spending growth accelerated to 4.62% from 3.55% in the April-June quarter. (…)

EARNINGS WATCH
  • 408 companies (86.4% of the S&P 500’s market cap) have reported. Earnings are beating by 4.7% while revenues have met expectations.
  • Expectations are for a decline in revenue, earnings, and EPS of -3.8%, -2.1%, and -0.9% (-1.1% yesterday). EPS growth is on pace for -0.3%, assuming the current beat rate for the remainder of the season. This would be 6.6% excluding Energy (6.7% yesterday).

Thomson Reuters released the first stats on pre-announcements for Q4. Of the 70 companies that have pre-announced, 17 are positive and 45 negative compared with 14 and 48 at the same time last year.

China Enters Bull Market China entered a bull market Thursday, a surprising milestone after a volatile summer wiped out trillions in value from mainland equities and rattled global markets.

U.S. SERVICES PMI, EMPLOYMENT SOFTENS

Latest data signalled a slight loss of growth momentum across the U.S. service sector in October, with weaker growth in new orders contributing to the slowest increase in business activity for four months. Softer client demand weighed on growth expectations for the year ahead, with the degree of optimism edging closer to July’s three-year low. As a result, companies were more cautious with regard to their hiring policies, with service sector employment rising at the weakest pace since February. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures were relatively muted; input prices increased modestly while output charges rose only slightly.

The seasonally adjusted Markit U.S. Services Business Activity Index posted at 54.8 in October, down from 55.1 in September, but remaining comfortably above the neutral 50.0 value. That said, the rate of expansion was the slowest seen in four months and below the series average (55.8). Higher business activity was largely linked by respondents to a general improvement in economic conditions and new client wins.

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The seasonally adjusted final Markit U.S. Composite PMI™ Output Index posted 55.0 in October, unchanged from September’s three-month low, but still pointing to a robust rate of growth. Sector data indicated that a stronger expansion of manufacturing output (index up from 54.5 to 55.6), was offset by slower service sector growth (index down from 55.1 to 54.8).

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As was the case with manufacturing activity, new business volumes also increased at a slower rate in October. Moreover, with the latest expansion of new order books the slowest since January.

Reflective of slower growth in activity and new orders, confidence towards the 12-month business outlook weakened in October was only slightly higher than July’s three-year low. A number of companies commented that a slowdown in market conditions had impacted their forecasts for future growth.

Companies reported a relatively modest rate of job creation in October, with payroll numbers expanding at the slowest pace in eight months. According to panellists, workforce numbers were raised in line with new business growth. Backlogs of work meanwhile fell for the third successive month. The rate of depletion eased since September and was only fractional.

After a two-month sequence of falling output charges, service providers increased their tariffs in October, albeit only marginally. At the same time, average input costs rose at a modest pace that was little-changed from September.