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THE DAILY EDGE: 27 MARCH 2020

Virus Update

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relates to Spain Deaths Surge; Trump and Xi Vow to Cooperate: Virus Update

U.S. overtakes China for most coronavirus cases as New York infections surge

  • Cases top 549,600; 24,361 dead, 127,531 recovered
  • The total number of infections in the United States, more than 85,000, for the first time exceeded those in China. More than 1,200 Americans have died as the outbreak spread exponentially into new territory in the Midwest and the South.
  • New York City, where 385 people have died, remains the hardest hit by the virus. But Michigan, which had only 350 cases a week ago, now has more than 3,000. The mayor of Los Angeles and the governor of Louisiana both warned that their populations were following the same path as New York.
  • ‘I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators’: Trump questions New York’s plea for critical equipment
  • Cases in Germany rose to 43,039 on Friday from 37,179, while the death toll jumped to 262 deaths from 203, based on Bloomberg-compiled data. In a worst-case scenario based on limited government action, 70% of the German population would swiftly be infected and the death toll would exceed 1 million, Der Spiegel magazine reported, citing an internal interior ministry study.
  • Indonesia reported the biggest daily jump in new coronavirus infections with the total number of confirmed cases topping 1,000.
  • Africa is inching toward a shutdown of its sea, land and air borders. A majority of its 54 nations have banned flights from countries with at least 100 coronavirus cases or temporarily closed their domestic and international airports. Most sea ports still allow cargo vessels, but passengers and crews from cruise ships are barred.
PANDENOMICS
Washington’s Trillions Alone Can’t Stop the Jobpocalypse A record surge in U.S. jobless claims is a foretaste of even worse numbers with a danger of cascading losses

The Labor Department on Thursday reported the number of American workers filing new claims for jobless benefits last week rose to 3.28 million from 282,000 a week earlier. Nothing in the 53-year history of the series comes close. In the worst week of 2009, when the job market was reeling, initial claims hit 665,000.

Worse, the 3.28 million in new claims doesn’t reflect all the people who were pushed out of jobs last week as the novel coronavirus crisis emptied out Main Streets and shut businesses down. (…)

The Second Virus Shockwave Is Hitting China’s Factories Already

Since last week, emails from foreign clients have been flooding into export manager Grace Gao’s in-box, asking to delay orders already made, putting goods ready to be shipped on hold until further notice, or asking for payment grace periods of up to two months. (…)

“It’s a complete, dramatic turnaround,” lamented Gao, estimating sales in April to May will plunge as much as 40% from last year. “Last month, it was our customers who chased after us checking if we could still deliver goods as planned. Now it’s become us chasing after them asking if we should still deliver products as they ordered.”

This emerging pattern poses a grave risk to the chances the world’s second-largest economy can repair the damage from the closures in February to curb the virus. (…)

Goldman Sachs:

We expect global real GDP to contract by 1.2% this year, making 2020 weaker than the year following the Global Financial Crisis. We expect the global recession to be front-loaded, with a recovery in H2, assuming that the physical constraints on economic activity gradually loosen towards the end of Q2. But the risks to our forecasts are skewed to the downside, mainly because it may take longer than we expect to slow new infections.

In the US, we now expect virus mitigation measures will lead to an exceptionally sharp near-term contraction in economic activity. We forecast US growth to decline by 3.7% yoy in 2020, with virus impacts lessening over H2, although the exact timing of the recovery is highly uncertain.

In the Euro area, we expect that the coronavirus outbreak will lead to a 9% yoy decline in growth in 2020, owing to a large H1 contraction.

In China, we forecast 3% yoy GDP growth in 2020, though this assumes the pandemic comes under control over the next few months.

From the Conference Board:SCOVID-19 Scenarios: Rebooting an Economy in Free Fall

Rosenberg: Silver linings and why a depression may now be averted

(…) There actually is a chance, just based on the numbers alone, that all of this infusion of money into the economy helps stem the recession in its tracks in the second quarter, and blaze the trail for a sharp recovery, believe it or not.

Just as everyone, even the bulls, have thrown in the towel on the V-shaped recovery, maybe that now becomes the big surprise. (…)

The FDR New Deal was US$800-billion in today’s dollars. The Reagan tax cuts came to US$170-billion annually. The Bush tax cuts amounted to US$150-billion at an annual rate. The Obama infrastructure package in 2009/10 was barely over US$80-billion per year. The ballyhooed Trump tax cuts of 2018 came to US$150-billion annually.

We are talking about at least US$2-trillion and it is immediate, not spread out over ten years as other big stimulus plans have been constructed. Assuming we see real GDP come in at negative 1 per cent for Q1 at an annual rate and say negative 20 per cent for Q2, we will have driven a US$1.3-trillion hole in the economy. That is a massive shock. If real GDP collapses 30 per cent in Q2 as some now suggest, that would be a US$1.5-trillion hit.

But the fiscal stimulus way more than offsets that big downside hit and enters the economy with little or no lags. This goes beyond income replacement — it provides a bonus to the economy, together with loan guarantees that should remove a lot of the bond default risk. So, if anything, the economy may well come out of this with a net gain of between US$500-billion and US$1-trillion. Then slap on the fact that we are going to be left with a super-accommodative Fed policy for an extended period of time, with zero rates and open-ended quantitative easing as far as the eye can see.

So, could it be the case, actually, that once this bill passes, we end up with a fiscal stimulus that actually swamps the shock. The key will be (i) when do we go back to work and (ii) how much caution will there still be from the lingering virus. The answer to (i) is when there is a flattening in the “case curve”and evidence that we have a surplus, instead of a deficit, of hospital beds so the very sick can actually be treated and (ii) this will be evident in what the savings rate does — will consumers revert to their pre-shock behavior or will they withdraw at the margin because of lingering concern of contracting the virus (will people be that quick to travel again)? (…)

OPEC ++ The Coming Slick Deal
Russia calls for new enlarged OPEC deal to tackle oil demand collapse

A new OPEC+ deal to balance oil markets might be possible if other countries join in, Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund said, adding that countries should also cooperate to cushion the economic fallout from coronavirus. (…)

Dmitriev and the Energy Minister Alexander Novak were Russia’s top negotiators in the production cut deal with OPEC. The existing deal expires on March 31.

“We are in contact with Saudi Arabia and a number of other countries. Based on these contacts we see that if the number of OPEC+ members will increase and other countries will join there is a possibility of a joint agreement to balance oil markets.” (…)

“Efforts to restore relations between Russia and the United States are now as important as ever, we will take all the efforts our side and hope the United States will also understand that this is necessary,” he said. (…)

Earlier this week, Reuters reported that last Monday, the U.S. fast-tracked the appointment of Victoria Coates as a special energy representative to Saudi Arabia.

The Trump administration will appoint Victoria Coates as special energy representative to Saudi Arabia as Washington struggles to deal with a global oil price crash dragging on the economy and threatening U.S. energy producers, an Energy Department official said on Monday.

Coates, who was one of President Donald Trump’s longest-serving security aides, moved from the White House in February to become a senior adviser to Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette.

“Coates will be based in Saudi Arabia to ensure the Department of Energy has an added presence in the region,” the official said. “While her assignment comes at a pivotal time for global oil markets, it has been in the works for a while.” (…)

On Monday, Brouillette said the Trump administration would soon make a diplomatic push on stabilizing energy markets.

He told Bloomberg TV that a U.S.-Saudi oil alliance was one of “many, many ideas” that had been discussed, but no decisions have been made on “anything of that nature.”

What needs to be done is find ways by which the U.S. can “join” the OPEC club without triggering anti-trust accusations…

Corporate Insiders Are Betting on a Rebound in Stocks Corporate insiders are buying stock in their own companies at a pace not seen in years, a sign they are betting on a rebound after a coronavirus-induced rout.

More than 2,800 executives and directors have purchased nearly $1.19 billion in company stock since the beginning of March. That’s the third-highest level on both an individual and dollar basis since 1988, according to the Washington Service, which provides data analytics about trading activity by insiders.

The insiders spent more money in the first 24 days of the month than they did during the entire three-month stretch from December through February, the data show—and more than five times the monthly average of about $235 million. (…) the number of individuals buying stock is the most since November 2008, during the global financial crisis. (…)

Insiders from 1,201 companies have purchased shares so far this month, far outpacing the 685 companies where insiders sold. In February, insiders at only 558 companies purchased shares, while those at 1,036 companies sold, according to the Washington Service. (…)

“Insiders think [the market downturn] is going to be temporary—they don’t think this is going to be a permanent dent,” said Nejat Seyhun, a finance professor at the University of Michigan who has studied insider activity for decades. “China solved the [coronavirus] problem, South Korea solved the problem, and they already showed us what to do to solve the problem.”

Insiders “seem to think that this doesn’t justify a 30% fall in stock prices,” Dr. Seyhun added. (…)

Interesting, but be aware that insiders were also very active buyers in the fall of 2007, and again the fall of 2008.

Number of inside buyers purchasing company shares, monthlyimage

Also, energy insiders seem to have been particularly active recently, maybe because they also see an end to this stupid price war. We don’t know how many non-energy insiders are buying.

Insiders within the energy and materials sectors have appeared particularly bullish this month, according to an analysis by Ned Davis Research Inc., which used data from Refinitiv. Dr. Seyhun, the University of Michigan professor, said his own analysis of insider activity similarly shows elevated levels of buying within those sectors.

“I’ve never seen a number like that before,” Dr. Seyhun said, referring to the buy-to-sell ratio that he calculated for the energy sector. Beyond Marathon Oil, insiders at companies including Exxon Mobil Corp., Sunoco LP and Continental Resources Inc. have also purchased shares. He said the increased level of buying may signal that energy executives believe “the oil price war is not going to last too long.”

U.S., China Trade Blame for Virus, Hampering Global Economy Rescue The frayed relationship between the two governments contrasts with the way Washington and Beijing cooperated during the financial crisis.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has been on a telephone spree this month, dialing the leaders of coronavirus-battered France, Italy, Spain and Germany with offers of support including masks and other medical equipment. For weeks, the one phone number he hadn’t tried was Donald Trump’s.

The leaders of the world’s two biggest economies finally spoke by phone in a call Mr. Trump initiated, according to China’s official Xinhua News Agency on Friday. (…)

After the call Mr. Trump tweeted, “Just finished a very good conversation with President Xi of China. Discussed in great detail the CoronaVirus that is ravaging large parts of our Planet.” The president, who along with other U.S. officials had been referring to the virus as the “China virus” or “Wuhan virus,” also said he was working closely with Mr. Xi.

“Under current circumstances, China and the U.S. must unite to fight the virus,” Mr. Xi was quoted by Xinhua as telling Mr. Trump. Bilateral relations are at a crucial juncture, Mr. Xi said, adding “Cooperation is the only right choice.” (…)

A relationship that helped pull the world out of a global recession a decade ago now is on the rocks, with Mr. Xi looking to score points by courting Washington’s allies and Mr. Trump ignoring appeals to use the crisis to turn away from protectionism. (…)

On Tuesday, G-7 finance ministers and central bankers conferred and released a statement stressing their commitment to do “whatever is necessary” to restore confidence and ultimately revive economic growth. The G-20 statement on Thursday largely repeated that pledge.

A separate meeting of G-7 foreign ministers ended without a joint statement, because members refused to go along with a U.S. request to refer to the novel coronavirus as the “Wuhan virus,” according to an official familiar with the matter. (…)

The South China Morning Post’s account is somewhat different (my emphasis):

“The virus knows no boundaries and ethnicity, and it is our common enemy. The international community can only defeat it through working together.

“The relationship of China and the US is at a critical juncture. Cooperation is mutually beneficial to both nations, while fighting will hurt. Cooperation is the only correct choice.

“It is hoped that the United States will take concrete actions to improve China-US relations, and the two sides will work together to strengthen cooperation in areas such as epidemic control,” he said.

THE DAILY EDGE: 26 MARCH 2020

Virus Update

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  • Total world Cases reach 472,109; 21,308 dead, 114,870 recovered
  • Over 1,000 people in the U.S. have died from the coronavirus. That puts the U.S.’s death toll just behind France, which has 1,331 deaths. Italy has suffered the highest death toll in the widening global pandemic, with more than 7,500 deaths as of Thursday.
  • In Canada, the number of confirmed cases rose to 3,385, an increase of 72% over the course of the day. There were 35 deaths, a rise of roughly 30%. It was not immediately clear if improvements in testing contributed to the spike in cases.
  • Spanish doctors are forced to choose who to let die from virus
  • Fatalities from novel coronavirus infection in Indonesia jumped to 78, the most in Southeast Asia, as the world’s fourth-most populous nation continues to see a surge in fresh cases. The total number of peopled infected rose to 893 on Thursday from 790 a day earlier. The number of new infections topped 100 for a third consecutive day.
  • Malaysia added 235 confirmed cases of the new coronavirus, the biggest daily jump so far, after Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin decided to extend the lockdown until April 14. And Hong Kong reported 43 additional cases, the second biggest daily jump in confirmed cases.
  • Thailand, a Southeast Asian country now entering what’s traditionally one of its hottest periods of the year, saw total cases surpass 1,000 following confirmation of 111 new cases Thursday.
  • Moscow reported a sharp increase in the number of cases, with the total jumping by a third over the last day to 546. The national total rose to 840.
  • Tokyo confirmed more than 45 additional coronavirus cases Thursday. That exceeded the count of 41 for the previous day. The city has become the new center of coronavirus cases in the country, overtaking Hokkaido as the area with the most infections. The jump comes as the annual cherry blossoms appear across the capital, bringing crowds out for traditional viewing celebrations in public parks.
  • WHO Issues a Rare Public Scolding, Saying Countries Wasting Time
  • Fingers crossed Robert Bosch GmbH said it developed a test that can diagnose Covid-19 in less than 2.5 hours and might help efforts to fight the coronavirus outbreak.
  • Fingers crossed U.K.-based Mologic Ltd. has sent prototypes of a 10-minute coronavirus test to laboratories for validation before it can begin full-scale manufacturing. The company and its partner, the Senegalese research foundation Institut Pasteur de Dakar, have developed a finger-prick test to determine whether a person had the illness and the state of his or her immune system. The company is also working on a separate saliva test to detect the presence of the virus.
Up to 10 per cent of recovered virus patients in Wuhan study test positive

About 3 to 10 per cent of patients who recovered from Covid-19 tested positive again after being discharged from hospital, doctors in Wuhan have found.

Researchers around the world are trying to determine whether recovered patients can still infect people with the coronavirus that causes the disease and if they have developed antibodies offering them immunity to the disease.

Doctors from Tongji hospital in the city, where the disease was first identified, told state broadcaster CCTV that they have found no evidence that these patients who again tested positive became infectious , based on close observations of their family members and laboratory tests. (…)

These incidents have raised questions about whether nucleic acid tests might not be reliable in detecting traces of the virus in some of the recovered patients.

Some experts have also expressed concerns about the sensitivity and stability of the test kits, and the collection and handling of patients’ samples.

(…) he said it was imperative for recovered patients to stay in isolation for two weeks after discharge so they could be tested again for confirmation.

Hospital Capacity Crosses Tipping Point in U.S. Coronavirus Hot Spots The relentless climb in the Covid-19 infection rate is forcing some hospitals in hot spots to move patients to outlying facilities, divert ambulances and store some bodies in a refrigerated truck.
Europe Opts for Economic Freeze in Coronavirus Tradeoff As the new coronavirus gained momentum in Europe, reluctant nations coalesced around a strategy: freeze economies now and worry about the bill later.
Money Package Limits Damage, Not Restore Economy Economists say rapid payments are essential, and further measures would be needed to aid households, firms

(…) “As big as this is, you’ll never look back on this and say, ‘We went too big.’ You’ll look back and say, ‘What did we miss?’” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “A number of people that are hurt will be hurt longer than this package will last.”

At more than 9% of gross domestic product, the measure is larger than the three major packages enacted to counter the 2007-09 recession, said Ernie Tedeschi, an economist at Evercore ISI. Even so, more will be needed, he said.

“The scale of the problem is accelerating, and it’s moving faster than fiscal policy makers are acting,” Mr. Tedeschi said. (…)

“All of these different measures are meant to plug the holes in the boat, if you will, as opposed to trying to speed things up,” said Wells Fargo economist Michael Pugliese.

Plugging the boat will take time. Trump administration officials said they hope to begin making the first payments to households within a few weeks. During the last downturn, it took more than two months. (…)

Payments to households, estimated to total $300 billion, would likely come in waves, first to people whose information the government already has, such as federal benefit recipients and people who file regular tax returns. Harder to reach may be the most vulnerable: people who don’t file taxes because their income is too low.

The payments might be delayed by the burden they place on an underfunded Internal Revenue Service, with a workforce strained by the pandemic and unable to staff taxpayer assistance centers.

One of the potentially most helpful pieces of the bill, economists said, is a broad expansion in unemployment insurance. The measure would extend benefits to gig economy workers and freelancers and would increase current unemployment assistance by $600 a week for four months.

The launch of a new program under the Small Business Administration would also take time to distribute $350 billion in loans to companies with fewer than 500 employees. Employers who keep paying workers through the downturn could have the loans forgiven.

Once the program is established, the SBA would then have to assess the eligibility of borrowers. Firms would need to prove the size of their workforce and their previous payroll expenses to determine loan sizes. (…)

“The number of people that are hurt will be hurt longer than this package will last,” said Ms. Swonk of Grant Thornton.

Of particular concern is the impact on state budgets later in the year, Ms. Swonk said. The bill provides additional money to states for expenses related to the coronavirus, but that may not be enough.

A sharp rise in unemployment could cost states billions in lost revenues and higher benefit spending, forcing them to scale back budgets for the next fiscal year and weighing on economic growth.

“You don’t want to have this major setback just as you’re starting to ramp up,” Ms. Swonk said.

Goldman Sachs:

  • To put this figure in context, we expect economic output to decline by roughly $700bn in 2020 from the 2019 level, or roughly $1.2 trillion compared to an assumption of trend growth. (…)

  • The legislation is unlikely to substantially change the short-term outlook for growth, as the 6% (24% at an annualized rate) decline in output we expect in Q2 is driven by the physical constraints on economic activity imposed by social distancing requirements and other efforts to reduce the spread of the virus. However, these programs should reduce the medium-term damage to affected businesses and the labor market, and should allow for a faster recovery in Q3, assuming that measures to contain the spread of the virus have been loosened by that point.

  • Why $2 Trillion Could Be Just the Start

(…) Small businesses, in particular, have emerged as the epicenter of this crisis. There are millions of them and they employ about half of the U.S. workforce. The expected $350 billion in loans that the package apportions to small businesses may be insufficient.

The biggest problem is that until the spread of the novel coronavirus is contained, the economic damage it is wreaking will continue. Businesses that have closed as a result of the virus aren’t going to open until state and local governments deem it safe, and many of them won’t log much in the way of sales until their customers feel the same way. (…)

Canada Nearly Doubles Fiscal Package, Warns of ‘Enormous’ Job Losses

(…) Mr. Morneau said the package, targeting income-strapped households, is now budgeted at 52 billion Canadian dollars ($35.88 billion) versus the original C$27 billion.

Along with the income support, the government will defer tax payments of C$55 billion, for a total short-term financial injection of C$102 billion, or nearly 5% of Canada’s gross domestic product. (…)

Mr. Trudeau said his government was “absolutely looking at more direct help” for businesses.

Canadian officials are working on a financial package for the energy sector, which is contending with both a plunge in economic activity and increased output from Saudi Arabia, according to people familiar with the situation. The premier of Alberta, the oil-rich Canadian province, said the oil-and-gas sector requires government support topping C$10 billion. (…)

Retailers Cancel Orders From Asian Factories, Threatening Millions of Jobs Retailers in the U.S. and Europe are suspending and canceling clothing orders, threatening millions of factory jobs in Asia just as China shows signs of recovering from the worst of the coronavirus outbreak.
Pointing up US urges Saudi Arabia to ‘rise to the occasion’ and end its oil price war with Russia

In a statement released by the U.S. State Department Wednesday, a spokesperson confirmed that Secretary Mike Pompeo had spoken with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday.

“Secretary Pompeo and the Crown Prince focused on the need to maintain stability in global energy markets amid the worldwide response,” the statement said.

“The Secretary stressed that as a leader of the G-20 and an important energy leader, Saudi Arabia has a real opportunity to rise to the occasion and reassure global energy and financial markets when the world faces serious economic uncertainty,” it added. (…)

(…) The TD report notes that global cuts in corporate budgets will likely be much greater, particularly when factoring in cuts from major oil companies. Five of those – Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Total SA and Eni SpA – have collective annual spending of US$100-billion on upstream operations. (…)

PANDENOMICS

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Stocks are Still Pricing an Optimistic Version of the Coronavirus Crisis A bounce in global equities has left the S&P down by 23% for the year. That is a lot, but investors might want to consider whether it could get worse.

(…) But even if there are no major financial icebergs lurking beneath the surface—by no means guaranteed—markets still appear too sanguine on the real shock to the U.S. economy.

(…) St. Louis Federal Reserve economists estimate that 52.8 million Americans could be unemployed next quarter. That is 32.1% of the labor force, a ninefold increase in joblessness.

Even presuming that 90% of the workers furloughed return to their previous jobs in a few months at previous salaries and that the businesses they work for resume exactly their previous health, that would leave an unemployment rate of something like 6% based on the size of the labor force now. That level of unemployment was last seen in mid-2014, when the S&P 500 was struggling to break north of 2000. (…)

Research suggests that even after relatively short bouts of unemployment, workers keep their consumption lower to rebuild financial buffers eroded during their joblessness.

We still know uncomfortably little about the virus and, more important, about the efficacy of the various methods employed to halt its spread. But most scenarios look worse than the one markets appear to be anticipating. Secondary outbreaks in regions that appear to be past the worst, or even to have defeated the epidemic, are a grim possibility. (…)

And at 14.4 times earnings for the next 12 months, the S&P 500 is still priced close to its 15-year average, nowhere near the lows reached in 2011, when that multiple fell to as low as 10. (…)

A greater depression?

Punch This is from Nouriel Roubini. The media will trip over each other to publish this and interview Dr. Doom and he will happily obliged. Hopefully, Roubini has changed since 2009-10 when he displayed much superior aptitudes to marketing than to factual economic analysis.

(…) The contraction that is now underway looks to be neither V- nor U- nor L-shaped (a sharp downturn followed by stagnation). Rather, it looks like an I: a vertical line representing financial markets and the real economy plummeting.

The best-case scenario would be a downturn that is more severe than the GFC (in terms of reduced cumulative global output) but shorter-lived, allowing for a return to positive growth by the fourth quarter of this year. In that case, markets would start to recover when the light at the end of the tunnel appears. (…)

Unfortunately for the best-case scenario, the public-health response in advanced economies has fallen far short of what is needed to contain the pandemic, and the fiscal-policy package currently being debated is neither large nor rapid enough to create the conditions for a timely recovery. As such, the risk of a new Great Depression, worse than the original – a Greater Depression – is rising by the day. (…)

Moreover, the fiscal response could hit a wall if the monetization of massive deficits starts to produce high inflation, especially if a series of virus-related negative supply shocks reduces potential growth. And many countries simply cannot undertake such borrowing in their own currency. Who will bail out governments, corporations, banks, and households in emerging markets?

In any case, even if the pandemic and the economic fallout were brought under control, the global economy could still be subject to a number of “white swan” tail risks. With the US presidential election approaching, the COVID-19 crisis will give way to renewed conflicts between the West and at least four revisionist powers: China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, all of which are already using asymmetric cyberwarfare to undermine the US from within. The inevitable cyber attacks on the US election process may lead to a contested final result, with charges of “rigging” and the possibility of outright violence and civil disorder.

Similarly, as I have argued previously, markets are vastly underestimating the risk of a war between the US and Iran this year; the deterioration of Sino-American relations is accelerating as each side blames the other for the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic. The current crisis is likely to accelerate the ongoing balkanization and unraveling of the global economy in the months and years ahead.

This trifecta of risks – uncontained pandemics, insufficient economic-policy arsenals, and geopolitical white swans – will be enough to tip the global economy into persistent depression and a runaway financial-market meltdown. After the 2008 crash, a forceful (though delayed) response pulled the global economy back from the abyss. We may not be so lucky this time.

TECHNICALS WATCH

Lowry’s Research issued a ST buy signal yesterday for “a staged buy program by aggressive investors. (…) more conservative investors may wish to wait for a 32 point drop in Selling Pressure from its most recent high, currently at 231 before beginning a staged buy program.”

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This will be a very volatile market as algos attempt to “machine learn” a global pandemic…

(…) Americans invested in stocks through 401(k)s and other retirement accounts may be unaware that they are part of a small minority of investors who are in it for the long run. Guy De Blonay, a fund manager at Jupiter Asset Management, said 80% of the stock market was controlled by machines during the selloff in 2018’s fourth quarter. In 2017, analysts at J.P. Morgan said “fundamental discretionary traders” accounted for only 10% of stock trading volume. (…)

The 13/34–Week EMA Trend Chart sell signal was a little late but it is nonetheless a “cyclical bear market” signal.

Also late:

The 200-d m.a. has turned down:

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At yesterday’s close:

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Crying face G-7 Meeting Ends in Disagreement Over Coronavirus Name U.S. wanted a statement referring to the coronavirus as the ‘Wuhan virus.’ Other nations disagreed.

(…) The State Department is using the hashtag #WuhanVirus on Twitter. (…) “This isn’t a time for blame; this is a time to solve this global problem. We are focused on that today,” Mr. Pompeo told reporters. (…)

Mr. Pompeo reiterated his previous criticism of China for what he called a disinformation campaign about the virus. He also said that Chinese authorities still were withholding information about the outbreak that started in Hubei province. (…)