More tests, more cases…
…but also more hospitalizations, with the usual lag…
…more deaths? We would hope not as many given better knowledge and generally younger patients.
Cases are flaring up everywhere now. Even in the NE, cases have more than doubled in the last 4 weeks with hospitalizations up 50%.
Nice chart from the WSJ. I am hoping FL stays quiet…
While we are racing to find a vaccine, Americans don’t seem too anxious to get one:
Americans’ Readiness to Get COVID-19 Vaccine Falls to 50%
Americans’ willingness to be vaccinated against the coronavirus has dropped 11 percentage points, falling to 50% in late September. This sharp decline comes after the percentage dwindled from 66% in July to 61% in August.
(…) a recent CNN poll also found a decline in public willingness to get the vaccine, from 56% in August to 51% in early October, without mentioning a timeframe. That question reads, “If a vaccine to prevent coronavirus infection were widely available at a low cost, would you, personally, try to get that vaccine, or not?”
Taking the two results together, it appears some Americans have lost confidence in the safety of the approval process for the vaccine, and are not merely answering as if a vaccine were literally available “right now.” (…)
Until now, men and women had consistently expressed similar rates of willingness to be vaccinated, but women’s comfort level dropped more than men’s in the latest reading, so there is now a 12-point gap between them: 56% of men versus 44% of women say they would get it. (…)
Meanwhile, according to Gallup Panel data from Aug. 17-30, the percentage of Americans who are inclined to delay returning to their normal daily activities until a vaccine is available is at a new high of 26%.
Roughly the same proportion of Americans (27%) say they are ready to resume their normal activities right now, matching the average since April. Nearly half are waiting for fewer COVID-19 cases in their state — either for a significant decline in new cases (20%) or until after no new cases emerge (27%). (…)
Canadian job growth accelerates in September, but ‘considerable slowdown’ is coming
The Canadian economy added 378,200 jobs in September, a result that blew past forecasts but is unlikely to be repeated this fall as new COVID-19 restrictions come into effect.
The unemployment rate declined to 9 per cent from August’s 10.2 per cent, Statistics Canada said Friday. The pace of hiring accelerated from 245,800 jobs created in August. Economists had expected a slower month, with a median estimate of 150,000 positions added.
Instead, the Canadian economy showed vigour on multiple fronts. Nearly all of September’s job creation was in full-time work, which rose by 334,000. Employment grew at similar rates in both the services-producing sector (2.1 per cent) and goods sector (2 per cent), with many hard-hit industries in recovery. Men (1.8 per cent) and women (2.4 per cent) shared in the gains.
All told, roughly 76 per cent of three million positions lost in March and April have been recovered, leaving about 720,000 positions to go. By comparison, the United States has recouped 52 per cent of its pandemic job losses. (…)
Educational services was a standout industry in September, with employment up a record 68,300. Education positions are now 2.6 per cent higher than in February. (…) Manufacturing jobs climbed by 68,000 last month and have almost fully recovered. (…)
Heading into the fall, the Canadian job market finds itself in a vulnerable position. Parts of the country are now grappling with a second wave of the virus, which in some cases has led to tighter restrictions. Workers in many industries – such as aviation, restaurants and hotels – could be unemployed for months to come.
Much of Quebec is now under a partial lockdown, while Ontario moved on Friday to shutter many activities – including indoor dining, cinemas and gyms – in Ottawa, Toronto and Peel Region for four weeks, starting Saturday. (…)
Microsoft Will Let Some Staff Work From Home After Pandemic The decision is another sign that workplace changes made in recent months in response to the Covid-19 pandemic will be enduring.
Libya Restarts Oil Production at Biggest Field The move could quickly increase Libya’s overall output after an extended shutdown and add to a glut of oil on world markets that has kept prices low.
EARNINGS WATCH
The Q3’20 earnings season officially begins tomorrow but we already got 22 early reporters. From Refinitiv:
To date, the 22 S&P 500 companies that have reported 2020 Q3 strongly indicate that analyst estimates for 2020 Q3 earnings are too low, 90.9% exceeded earnings expectations with aggregate earnings 22.9% above consensus. (…)
Since the start of the third quarter, 70% of analysts’ annual earnings revisions have been positive. Additionally, upward revisions represented 66% of annual earnings revisions over the past week. This trend appears to be consistent within the quarterly data as well, where 66% of revisions to this quarter’s earnings estimates were positive over both the past seven days and thirty days.
In a typical quarter, as analysts refine their estimates heading into earnings season, the S&P 500’s year-on-year (Y/Y) growth expectations decline by an average of 3.7 percentage points (ppts) from the start of the quarter to the start of earnings season. However, 2020 Q3 Y/Y earnings increased by 1.7 ppts over this period to -21.4% on Oct. 1, 2020. (…)
Heading into 20Q3 earnings season, several indicators and quant models are showing that earnings estimates for the quarter are too low. This implies that companies will report results well above the current consensus forecasts and that further upward revisions to earnings estimates should be expected.
U.S. Stock Futures Tick Higher on Earnings Optimism Investors are betting that the biggest businesses have turned a corner in the third quarter, and earnings have fallen less than previously anticipated.
(…) This week, the focus is likely to shift to the third-quarter earnings season. Investors are betting that the results will show corporate performance has turned a corner, helping lift stocks higher. With the economy continuing to slowly reopen, profits of large companies in the S&P 500 are now projected to drop 20% from a year earlier, an improvement from the 25% decline anticipated at the end of June.
“There is a big sense that [the third quarter] was a big quarter for growth in the U.S.,” said Kit Juckes, macro strategist at Société Générale. “It’s economically not as bad as our worst nightmare.”
Markets are also betting that the Democrats may secure control of the Senate in the November election, making it a full sweep. That would lay the ground for a large stimulus package to be passed by Congress, offering additional relief to households and businesses, in the early months of next year. (…)
The latest White House offer on a new coronavirus package hit resistance from both Democrats and Republicans over the weekend, deflating hopes that an agreement would be struck before Nov. 3. (…)
What to Expect From Bank Earnings: A Bad Quarter, but Not as Bad as Before Seven months into the coronavirus pandemic, banks are getting used to a sour economy.
(…) The four largest lenders more than doubled their war chests for defaulted loans over the first six months of the year and now believe they largely have enough set aside to handle a potential spate of distress among consumers and businesses.
Without that hit to the bottom line, profits should be higher in the third quarter than the second. (…)
Wall Street investment-banking and trading businesses are expected to turn in a strong performance, but aren’t likely to hit the high mark they did in the second quarter. (…) (Chart below from Raymond James)
Stimulus Talks With White House Are at Impasse The latest White House offer on a new coronavirus package hit resistance from both Democrats and Republicans over the weekend, deflating hopes that a bipartisan agreement was imminent.
TECHNICALS WATCH
Demand recovered strongly and broadly last week and Supply receded.
Insiders were not impressed as Barron’s illustrates:
